2018 Alabama Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama 30 th Annual Alabama Economic Outlook Conference Montgomery, Alabama January 11 th, 2018

2 Alabama Jobs (Jan to Nov. 2017) Jan November 2017 Change Total Nonagricultural 1,839,400 2,029, ,400 Mining and Logging 12,100 9,700-2,400 Construction 77,200 91,500 14,300 Manufacturing 233, ,800 34,600 Durable Goods Manufacturing 143, ,400 29,900 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 89,700 94,400 4,700 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 358, ,400 25,600 Wholesale Trade 70,900 74,500 3,600 Retail Trade 221, ,800 15,300 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 66,400 73,100 6,700 Information 23,500 19,900-3,600 Financial Activities 91,100 98,400 7,300 Professional and Business Services 208, ,300 34,100 Educational and Health Services 213, ,900 28,700 Leisure and Hospitality 159, ,600 44,100 Other Services 78,400 82,600 4,200 Government 384, ,700 3,500 Federal Government 57,200 53,000-4,200 State Government 110, ,300 5,900 Local Government 216, ,400 1,800 Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. 2

3 Alabama Nonfarm Employment Change in Number of Jobs November 2015 to November 2016 November 2016 to November 2017 Total Nonagricultural 28,400 30,500 Mining and Logging Construction 1,400 6,600 Manufacturing 3,100 5,600 Durable Goods Manufacturing 1,000 3,100 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 2,100 2,500 Trade, Transportation and Utilities ,000 Wholesale Trade Retail Trade -1,000-1,700 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 400-1,000 Information Financial Activities 2, Professional and Business Services 4,300 4,500 Educational and Health Services 6,700 4,800 Leisure and Hospitality 7,400 5,200 Other Services 500 2,300 Government 4,800 3,600 Federal Government State Government 1,800 2,700 Local Government 2,600 1,300 Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. 3

4 Monthly Employment Indicators (November 2017) Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force 2,173,604 2,163,474 Percent Change from Year Ago Level -0.5% -0.9% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level -11,037-20,176 Employed 2,096,334 2,087,667 Percent Change from Year Ago Level 1.7% 2.0% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 35,527 40,152 Unemployed 77,270 75,807 Percent Change from Year Ago Level -37.6% -44.3% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level -46,564-60,328 Alabama Unemployment Rate 3.6% 3.5% Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2016) 5.7% 6.2% U.S. Unemployment Rate 3.9% 4.1% U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2016) 4.4% 4.6% Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. 4

5 Total Annual Nonfarm Employment and Unemployment Rate (Annual) 2, Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 Employment Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Percent) 1, Source: Alabama Department of Labor. 5

6 Change in Alabama Employment From the Beginning of the Recession Number of Months 6

7 Tax Revenues (Fiscal Year 2018 to Date, November 2017) Tax Total Collection Percent Change From Year Ago Change in Revenue from Year Ago Level Total $1,711,759, % $65,741,990 Income (Individual) $650,469, % $16,025,634 Sales $384,964, % $12,085,828 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue. 7

8 Alabama GDP and Nonfarm Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 8

9 Labor Force Participation Rate (Annual) United States Alabama Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9

10 Population 7/1/ to 2016 Number Change Percent Change United States 323,127,513 2,230, Alabama 4,863,300 9, Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville 114, Auburn-Opelika 158,991 2, Birmingham-Hoover 1,147,417 2, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 208,563 4, Decatur 152, Dothan 147, Florence-Muscle Shoals 146, Gadsden 102, Huntsville 449,720 4, Mobile 414, Montgomery 373, Tuscaloosa 241,378 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. 10

11 Alabama Population Pyramid, years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years 5-9 years 0-4 years women men 180, ,000 60, , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. 11

12 Alabama Manufacturing Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 12

13 Alabama Wood Products Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 13

14 Alabama Machinery Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 14

15 Alabama Motor Vehicle & Parts Real GDP (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 15

16 Alabama Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 16

17 Alabama Construction Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 17

18 Alabama Professional and Business Services Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 18

19 Alabama Educational and Health Services Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 19

20 Alabama Leisure and Hospitality Services Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 20

21 Alabama Wholesale and Retail Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 21

22 Alabama Information Sector Employment (Annual Percent Change) Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 22

23 Top 5 Export Industries of Alabama, 2016 (Billions of Dollars) Transportation Equipment Chemicals Primary Metal Manufacturing Machinery; Except Electrical Paper $10.7 $2.2 $1.5 $0.9 $0.9 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. International Trade Administration. 23

24 Top 5 Export Destinations of Alabama, 2016 (Billions of Dollars) Canada $4.1 China $3.3 Germany $3.2 Mexico $2.6 United Kingdom $0.6 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. International Trade Administration. 24

25 Real Gross Domestic Product All Industry Total (Millions of chained 2009 $) Percent Change 2007 to 2015 to 2016 Rank Alabama 181, % 1.5% Anniston-Oxford 3, % 1.0% Auburn-Opelika 4, % 5.0% Birmingham-Hoover 55, % 1.5% Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 6, % 2.5% Decatur 4, % 2.0% Dothan 4, % 0.8% Florence-Muscle Shoals 4, % 1.8% Gadsden 2, % 2.8% Huntsville 22, % 0.8% Mobile 16, % 1.2% Montgomery 15, % 2.1% Tuscaloosa 9, % -4.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 25

26 Metro Share of State GDP, 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 26

27 Alabama Employment in Advanced Industries vs All Industries Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 27

28 Alabama Advanced Industries Employment, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 28

29 Selected Advance Industry Sectors Employment in Alabama, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 29

30 Top 10 Alabama Advanced Industries with Highest Average Monthly Earnings, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 30

31 Top 5 Alabama Metros with Largest Shares of Advanced Industries Employment and GDP Note: 2015 data on share of advanced industries employment and output out of all jobs and output in the region, respectively. Number of full-time workers and output (billions of 2009 chained $) in advanced industries in parenthesis. Source: Brookings, 2016 Advanced Industries report. 31

32 Per Capita Income, 2016 Per Capita Percent Change Income Rank from 2015 United States $49, Alabama $38, Anniston-Oxford $34, Auburn-Opelika $34, Birmingham-Hoover $45, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley $41, Decatur $35, Dothan $37, Florence-Muscle Shoals $35, Gadsden $34, Huntsville $45, Mobile $35, Montgomery $40, Tuscaloosa $35, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 32

33 Average Annual Wages, All Occupations Average Wage Percent of State United States $48, Alabama $41, Anniston-Oxford $37, Auburn-Opelika $38, Birmingham-Hoover $45, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL $34, Decatur $41, Dothan $36, Florence-Muscle Shoals $36, Gadsden $35, Huntsville $52, Mobile $42, Montgomery $40, Tuscaloosa $40, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Occupational Employment Statistics, May

34 Educational Attainment, 2016 Note: Percent of population 25 years and over. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-year estimates. 34

35 Median Family Income, FY2017 Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs, Economic and Market Analysis Division. 35

36 Alabama Revenue Forecasts (Millions of Current Dollars) FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 Total Tax Revenues $9,778.5 $9,897.3 $10,309.2 $10,628.6 $10,908.3 Percent Change Sales Tax Revenues $2,152.5 $2,236.7 $2,276.6 $2,307.9 $2,334.7 Percent Change Individual Income Tax Revenues $3,929.6 $4,072.0 $4,206.8 $4,332.8 $4,471.4 Percent Change 4, Corporate Income Tax Revenues $567.4 $417.0 $459.9 $495.8 $524.6 Percent Change All Other Tax Revenues $3,129.0 $3,171.6 $3,365.9 $3,492.1 $3,577.6 Percent Change Alabama Education Trust Fund $6,048.0 $6,072.9 $6,326.9 $6,523.7 $6,718.7 Percent Change Alabama General Fund $1,800.1 $1,787.4 $1,875.7 $1,897.5 $1,934.9 Percent Change Source: Alabama Department of Revenue and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. December

37 Alabama Forecast Summary This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER December 2017 forecast Preliminary 2019 forecast also included below Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent) (Percent change) Real GDP range 1.5 to to to 3.0 Employment range 1.0 to to 1.5 Total Tax Receipts, FY range 3.0 to to

38 ABCI Index Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

39 Sales & Profits Sales Strong Increase Moderate Increase No Change Moderate Decrease Strong Decrease Profits Strong Increase Moderate Increase No Change Moderate Decrease Strong Decrease

40 Hiring Plans & Capital Expenditures Hiring Plans Strong Increase Moderate Increase No Change Moderate Decrease Strong Decrease Capital Expenditures Strong Increase Moderate Increase No Change Moderate Decrease Strong Decrease

41 National and Alabama Outlook Expectations versus Prior Quarters Alabama United States 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

42 Sales and Profits Expectations versus Prior Quarters Sales Profits Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

43 Hiring and Capital Expenditures Expectations versus Prior Quarters Hiring Capital Expenditures Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

44 GDP and Nonfarm Employment Forecasts, 2018 Nonfarm Empl. Forecast, Real GDP Forecast, Percent Percent Rank, Empl. Forecast Rank, GDP Forecast Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL Decatur /7 Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden /4/5 2 Huntsville /4/5 6/7 Mobile /11 12 Montgomery /11 5 Tuscaloosa /4/5 4 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama. 44

45 Population Projections 2010 to 2030 Census Number Percent Change Change United States 308,745, ,503, ,335, ,402,000 50,656, Alabama 4,779,736 4,941,485 5,031,739 5,124, , Anniston-Oxford- Jacksonville 118, , , ,529-6, Auburn-Opelika 140, , , ,587 51, Birmingham-Hoover 1,128,047 1,167,297 1,188,772 1,210,100 82, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 182, , , ,777 79, Decatur 153, , , ,258-1, Dothan 145, , , ,747 13, Florence-Muscle Shoals 147, , , , Gadsden 104, , , ,612-3, Huntsville 417, , , , , Mobile 412, , , ,579 10, Montgomery 374, , , ,277 11, Tuscaloosa 230, , , ,148 33, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, March

46 Thank You! Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama (205)