Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation. Autumn XRG Meeting. November 2016
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1 Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation Autumn XRG Meeting November 2016 Elizabeth Holder, Research Associate Institutional Research & Market Analytics
2 Executive Summary Overall Trends The first-year retention rate of the 2015 cohort is 85.1%, a 1.3% point increase from Almost all of the freshmen (94%) who completed the first year in the high performance group (earning a 2.5 or higher GPA and 48 or more credit hours) persisted to the second year. The four-year graduation rate of the 2012 cohort is 58.7%, in line with last year s all-time high. The five-year graduation rate is 68.3% and the six-year graduation rate has exceeded seventy percent again this year (72.5% for the 2010 cohort). DePaul continues to outperform national, 4-year private institutions in terms of first-year retention, four- and six-year graduation rates. Academic & Demographic Trends Freshmen who came to DePaul less prepared than their peers graduated at 61% within six years, slightly higher than the national, 4-year private rate of. Freshman with high need decreased in 2015 to 37%, but they have slightly lower graduation rates than their low need peers. African-American freshmen have their highest four-year graduation rate to date, at 47% for the 2012 cohort, an increase of 1 points from the 2009 cohort. Business has continued to graduate freshmen within six-years at ever increasing rates; they have increased by 4% points from 75% in the 2006 cohort to 79% in the 2010 cohort. Freshmen who participate in the Edge Program have a distinctly higher four-year graduation rate, 64.9%, than freshmen overall (58.7%). Students from Ohio, one of the top three feeder states of new freshmen, have distinctly higher retention and graduation rates than freshmen overall. Diverse Learning Environments Survey - Top Level Overview 2
3 % 82.4% 84.3% 83.5% % 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 86.9% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.4% 87.2% 85.2% 85.4% 83.8% 85.1% 67.9% % 71.2% 72.8% 72.5% Six-Year Graduation % 64.6% 61.3% 63.5% % 63.5% 63.8% Five-Year Graduation 68.1% 68.7% 69.8% 70.1% 68.3% 58.4% 64.1% 65.4% Four-Year Graduation 63.3% 58.8% 60.5% 58.1% 59.1% % 59.7% 59.9% 58.7% 58.7% 54.2% % 56.4% 52.7% 50.6% 47.6% 48.8% 45.3% % 43.9% % 40.4% 39.5% 36.4% First-Year Retention, Four-, Five- and Six-Year Graduation Rates First-Year Retention Freshman Retention & Graduation 3
4 First-Year Retention Rates Fall to Winter Retention 94.6% 95.5% 94.6% % 94.9% 94.7% 95.7% 95.9% % 95.9% 95.6% 96.3% 94.9% 95.4% 91.8% 92.9% 92.2% % 93.2% 94.3% 95.4% 94.5% 94.7% 94.4% 92.3% Fall to Spring Retention 93.7% 94.3% 93.3% 93.4% First-Year Retention 81.2% 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.9% 86.4% 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 7 Of the 2015, 117 freshmen left after the first quarter and an additional 49 freshmen left after the winter quarter Freshman Retention & Graduation 4
5 First-Year thru Sixth-Year Retention Rates, First-Year Retention 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% Second-Year Retention 79.3% % 80.5% 77.2% 7 Third-Year Retention 77.5% 76.6% 74.8% 74.2% 76.1% Fourth-Year Retention Of these 345 students who were retained at the start of Year 5, 84% of them went on to graduate. 18.3% 19.5% 15.4% % 1 Fifth-Year Retention 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 3.7% 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 1.5% Sixth-Year Retention Freshman Retention & Graduation 5
6 First-Year Retention and Four-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 79% 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 87% 86% 85% 85% 87% 84% 85% 7 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% 73% 72% 73% 72% 72% 74% 75% 75% 36% 43% 44% 41% 45% 39% 44% 48% 49% 43% 48% 59% 59% 59% 54% 56% 56% 49% 51% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 4th Yr Graduation DPU 4 Yr Graduation Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 6
7 First-Year Retention and Six-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 87% 83% 84% 85% 85% 86% 87% 85% 85% 84% 85% 79% 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 73% 73% 72% 73% 73% 72% 7 63% 64% 64% 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 72% 58% 62% 65% 61% 64% 64% 59% 59% 59% 59% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 6th Yr Graduation DPU 6th Yr Graduation Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 7
8 Proportion of within each Academic Preparation Group Low Preparation 56% 55% 55% 51% Moderate Preparation 28% 27% 27% 41% 45% 45% 34% 33% 32% 33% 27% 27% 25% 26% 23% 35% 34% 31% 37% 38% 38% 32% 32% 35% 31% 27% 35% 34% 31% 35% 35% 33% 35% 32% 16% 17% 18% 19% High Preparation *Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, and high school quality rating. Academic preparation was revised in the 2016 academic year, therefore we have applied the current formula working backwards to Freshman Retention & Graduation 8
9 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By High School Academic Preparation High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation % 88% 87% 9 91% 92% 91% 88% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 88% 84% 85% 85% 87% 85% 87% 81% 84% 84% 84% 83% 81% 81% 83% 78% 78% 79% 77% 79% 75% 75% 69% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73% 75% 72% 71% 71% 64% 66% 65% 57% 56% 58% 62% 59% 57% 61% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 44% 45% 45% 43% 42% 41% 36% 1 N = 824 of the 2015 N = 893 of the 2015 N = 800 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 9
10 Proportion of within Each Need Rank Group 48% High Need 42% 42% 38% 37% Low Need 33% 33% 27% 34% 24% Moderate Need 26% 28% 28% 29% Freshman Retention & Graduation 10
11 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Need Rank 9 7 Low Need Moderate Need High Need 84% 85% 83% 86% 87% 86% 87% 88% 85% 85% 83% 84% 85% 87% 87% 86% 87% 89% 89% 86% 84% 85% 87% 88% 86% 84% 85% 83% 81% 82% 78% 73% 74% 74% 75% 75% 69% % 68% 69% 7 71% 69% 67% 66% 62% 59% 59% 58% 61% 62% 61% 63% 57% 56% 56% 54% 54% 52% 51% 52% 51% 49% 46% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 711 of the 2015 N = 838 of the 2015 N = 967 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 11
12 Proportion of within Each Academic Performance Group 49% 51% 51% 53% 54% 58% 56% 61% 66% High Performance 64% 65% 66% 65% 67% 64% 62% 26% 25% 24% 24% 26% 23% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% Moderate Performance 18% 19% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% Low Performance 18% 14% 17% 18% Low Performance: < 2.50 GPA with <=47 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with <37 hours earned Moderate Performance: < 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with hours earned High Performance: >= 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned Freshman Retention & Graduation 12
13 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By First Year Academic Performance 9 7 High Performance Moderate Performance Low Performance 93% 93% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 93% 94% 9 87% 88% 9 92% 89% 88% 89% 91% 87% 83% 84% 86% 85% 83% 68% 71% 71% 72% 74% 74% 74% 73% 69% 68% 69% 69% N = 449 of the % 48% 47% 49% 49% 45% 42% 54% 56% 53% 53% 44% 47% 48% 44% 44% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 26% 24% 24% 25% 26% 1 9% 8% 9% 1 8% 6% 6% N = 1,562 of the 2015 N = 506 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 13
14 First-Year Retention, Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rates by Gender First-Year Retention Females Males % 85% 87% 84% 83% 85% 85% 86% 86% 86% 84% 83% 84% 86% 83% 83% 84% 84% 85% 86% 86% 87% 88% 89% 85% 84% 86% 81% 82% 72% 73% 74% 75% Six-Year Graduation % 66% 67% 65% 62% 63% 65% 67% 69% 69% 71% 69% 65% 61% 62% 56% 58% 59% 59% 61% 55% 53% 54% 51% Four-Year Graduation 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 52% 46% 46% 44% 38% 38% 38% 1 N = 1,417 of the 2015 N = 1,100 of the 2015 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 14
15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 15
16 First-Year Retention, Four-Year, and Six-Year Graduation Rates - By Entry College LAS Business CSH CDM Communication COE % 85% 87% 83% 85% 87% 87% 87% 88% 89% 89% 89% 89% 87% 89% 88% 87% 85% 85% 86% 86% 83% 84% 83% 83% 83% 81% 76% 77% 79% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 73% 74% 76% 73% 71% 71% 71% 69% 67% 67% 66% 68% 69% 68% 67% 64% 64% 61% 62% 59% 59% 57% 54% 55% 52% 67% 65% 64% 62% 54% 55% 57% 59% 56% 55% 55% 51% 52% 49% 45% 1 N= 451 of the 2015 cohort First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N= 668 of the 2015 cohort N= 479 of the 2015 cohort N= 494 of the 2015 cohort N= 217 of the 2015 cohort N=79 of the 2015 cohort Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 16
17 Proportion of from Each Geographic Location, at Time of Entry 46% 45% 43% 45% 47% 47% 44% 47% 48% 44% 43% 44% 42% Suburban 41% 41% 33% 33% 36% 35% 37% 39% 27% 28% 26% 27% 29% 28% 29% Out of State 21% 26% 17% 21% 19% 16% 16% 19% 18% 17% 18% 18% Chicago 16% 1 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Other IL 4% Freshman Retention & Graduation 17
18 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Geographic Origin, at Time of Entry 9 7 Chicago Suburban Other IL Out of State 88% 88% 89% 9 91% 87% 87% 82% 84% 87% 85% 84% 83% 84% 83% 83% 85% 84% 81% 81% 75% 75% 77% 78% 76% 76% 72% 71% 72% 66% 68% 68% 68% 69% 69% 71% 67% 66% 65% 62% 68% 65% 65% 62% 58% 59% 59% 61% 58% 59% 62% 64% 61% 56% 47% 45% 46% 47% 49% 49% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 441 of the 2015 cohort N= 980 of the 2015 cohort N= 60 of the 2015 cohort N= 1,034 of the 2015 cohort Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 18
19 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Top Feeder States, at Time of Entry California Michigan Ohio Overall Freshmen % 83% 85% 81% 68% 76% 79% 62% 56% 63% 62% 64% 84% 85% 86% 84% 86% 87% 84% 84% 76% 75% 74% 73% 69% 7 67% 62% 63% 63% 65% 63% 62% 54% 56% 58% 57% 54% 52% 89% 83% 67% 83% 83% 85% 84% 81% 69% 71% 67% 65% 62% 62% 64% 61% 59% 56% 43% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 147 of the 2015 cohort N= 117 of the 2015 cohort N= 91 of the 2015 cohort N= 2,517 in the 2015 cohort Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 19
20 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Mission Characteristics Pell Eligible Underrep. Students of Color First Generation Overall Freshmen % 83% 84% 87% 85% 86% 85% 85% 87% 81% 82% 81% 82% 82% 84% 85% 82% 79% 79% 67% 69% % 72% 73% 7 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 67% 67% 68% 68% 64% 61% 57% 58% 58% 59% 49% 52% 52% 55% 56% 56% 53% 53% 53% 46% 46% 47% 49% 46% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 750 of the 2015 N = 613 of the 2015 N = 871 of the 2015 N = 2,517 in the Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 20
21 Retention Rates & Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rate by Special Populations Population of Interest Size of 2015 % in High Performance of st Yr Retention st Yr Retention st Yr Retention th Year Graduation th Year Graduation 2010 Univer. Honors N= % 92.6% % 82.9% 84.7% CPS-IB (self rep.) N= % 83.3% % 59.2% 77.6% AP Credit N=1, % 88.9% 85.5% 86.7% 62.1% 77. Overall Freshmen N=2, % 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 58.7% 72.5% CPS N= % 82.8% 82.6% 81.1% 47.6% 69.4% Catholic HS N= % 91.4% 87.2% 89.8% 50.7% 68.6% FYAS N= % 86.8% 82.1% 84.7% 46.2% 67.3% Probation in 1 st Year N=192.5% 45.1% 46.9% 49.5% 3.7% 17.6% TOPP N= % 84.3% 81.7% 86.1% 51.2% n/a Edge Program N= % 87.9% 88.5% 94.6% 64.9% n/a Pathway Honors N= % 94.9% 94.7% 92.5% n/a n/a Freshman Retention & Graduation 21
22 Appendix Freshman Retention & Graduation 22
23 Number Entered during Fall Term Overall 2,392 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 Race African-American Asian/Pacific Islander/Alaska Native Caucasian 1,566 1,652 1,575 1,574 1,416 1,337 1,501 1,554 1,433 1,528 1,481 Hispanic/Latino Multiracial Other/Unknown Gender Female 1,411 1,428 1,458 1,502 1,494 1,307 1,408 1,459 1,408 1,469 1,417 Male 981 1,103 1,055 1,051 1, ,046 1,130 1,014 1,071 1,100 Race and Gender African-American Male African-American Female Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Male Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Female Caucasian Male Caucasian Female Hispanic/Latino Male Hispanic/Latino Female Multiracial Male Multiracial Female Freshman Retention & Graduation 23
24 Number Entered during Fall Term Overall 2,392 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 Geographic Origin Chicago Elsewhere in IL Out of State / Out of Country ,021 Suburban 1,076 1,186 1,182 1,127 1,174 1,071 1,092 1,124 1,074 1, College Business Communication Computing & Digital Media Education Liberal Arts & Soc. Sci. 1,080 1,127 1,152 1,114 1, Music Science & Health Theatre First Year Performance High Performance 1,398 1,426 1,536 1,685 1,622 1,454 1,630 1,673 1,627 1,618 1,562 Moderate Performance Low Performance Academic Preparation High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation 1,078 1,149 1,023 1,019 1, Freshman Retention & Graduation 24
25 Methodology All data is based on first-time, full-time, degree-seeking freshman students. FYAS students are included with the cohort entering in the subsequent fall quarter. Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, high school quality ratings. Retention by Entry college does not track the students movements into other colleges at DePaul. The rates are based on if the student persisted or graduated DePaul on the whole, and are measured by the college in which they first entered DePaul in their first fall entry term cohort marks the first year with 1 st year retention rates after the CSH and LAS split. All prior cohorts graduation rates represent the prior college of LA&S. Freshman Retention & Graduation 25
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