Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation. Autumn XRG Meeting. November 2017
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1 Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation Autumn XRG Meeting November 2017 Elizabeth Holder, Sr. Research Associate Institutional Research & Market Analytics
2 Executive Summary Overall Trends The first-year retention rate of the 2016 cohort is 83.6%, a 1.5% point decrease from Almost all of the freshmen (95%) who completed the first year in the high performance group (earning a 2.5 or higher GPA and 48 or more credit hours) persisted to the second year. The four-year graduation rate of the 2013 cohort is 60.2%, a new all-time high for freshmen. The five-year graduation rate is 69.3% and the six-year graduation rate dropped to 70.7%, which was expected, given last year s decline in the five-year graduation rate. DePaul continues to outperform national, 4-year private institutions in terms of first-year retention, four- and six-year graduation rates. Academic & Demographic Trends Freshmen who came to DePaul less prepared than their peers graduated at within six years, the same as the national, 4-year private rate of. The proportion of freshmen with high need decreased in 2016 to 37%, but they have only slightly lower graduation rates than their low need peers. Communication has continued to retain and graduate freshmen at ever-increasing rates, matching or exceeding all other colleges; first-year retention is up to 87% and their four-year graduation rate is up to 68%. Freshmen who participate in the EDGE Program have a notably higher four-year graduation rate, 74.2%, than freshmen overall (60.2%) as well as a higher six-year graduation rate, 82.1%, than freshmen overall (70.7%). The first cohort of Health Science Pathway Honors freshmen have graduated within four years at a rate of 72.9%, exceeding the overall freshman cohort by 12.7% points. Diverse Learning Environments Survey - Top Level Overview 2
3 % 82.4% 84.3% 83.5% % 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 86.9% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.4% 87.2% 85.2% 85.4% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 58.4% 52.7% 36.4% First-Year Retention, Four-, Five- and Six-Year Graduation Rates % 64.6% 61.3% 63.5% % 63.5% 63.8% 67.9% % 71.2% 72.8% 72.5% Six-Year Graduation 70.7% % 65.4% 68.1% 68.7% 69.8% 70.1% 68.3% 69.3% 63.3% 58.8% 60.5% 58.1% 59.1% % 59.7% 59.9% 54.2% % 50.6% 47.6% 48.8% 45.3% % 43.9% % 40.4% 39.5% 58.7% 58.7% 58.9% 60.2% First-Year Retention Five-Year Graduation Four-Year Graduation 1 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 3
4 First-Year Retention Rates % 95.5% 94.6% % Fall to Winter Retention 95.7% 95.9% % 94.7% 96.9% 95.9% 95.6% 96.3% 94.9% 95.4% 94.6% % 92.9% 92.2% % 92.3% 93.2% 95.4% 94.3% 94.5% 94.7% 94.4% Fall to Spring Retention 93.7% 94.3% 93.3% 93.4% 91.8% % 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.9% 86.4% 85.2% 85.4% First-Year Retention 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 7 Of the 2016, 133 freshmen left after the first quarter and an additional 69 freshmen left after the winter quarter. '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 4
5 First-Year thru Sixth-Year Retention Rates, First-Year Retention 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 8 Second-Year Retention 79.3% % 80.5% 77.2% 77.8% 7 4 Third-Year Retention 77.5% 76.6% 74.8% 74.2% 76.1% 74.1% Of these 367 students who were retained at the start of Year 5, 69% of them went on to graduate within 6 years. (2011 ) Fourth-Year Retention 18.3% 19.5% 15.4% % 15.6% 1 Fifth-Year Retention 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 3.7% 4.5% 3.5% Sixth-Year Retention 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.1% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 5
6 What Quarter Freshmen Stop Enrolling Winter Spring Summer Number of Freshmen Freshman Retention & Graduation 6
7 10 First-Year Retention and Four-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions % 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 87% 86% 85% 85% 87% 84% 85% 84% % 75% 75% 36% 43% 44% 75% 41% 75% 75% 74% 45% 4 39% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 73% 73% 72% 73% 72% 72% 48% 49% 44% 48% 43% 59% 59% 59% 56% 56% 54% 49% 51% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 4th Yr Graduation DPU 4 Yr Graduation Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 7
8 10 First-Year Retention and Six-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions % 82% 83% 84% 81% 82% 79% 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 87% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 86% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% 73% 72% 73% 73% 87% 85% 85% 85% 84% 74% 75% 75% 76% 72% 84% 7 63% 64% 64% 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 72% 71% 4 58% 62% 65% 61% 64% 64% 59% 59% 59% 59% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 6th Yr Graduation DPU 6th Yr Graduation Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 8
9 10 Proportion of within each Academic Preparation Group % 27% 18% Low Preparation 51% 45% 45% 41% % 32% 33% 33% Moderate Preparation 27% 27% 25% 26% 23% 19% High Preparation 35% 34% 31% 37% 38% 38% 32% 32% 35% 31% 27% 35% 34% 31% 35% 35% 35% 33% 35% 35% 32% *Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, and high school quality rating. Academic preparation was revised in the 2016 academic year, therefore we have applied the current formula working backwards to Freshman Retention & Graduation 9
10 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By High School Academic Preparation 10 High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation % 87% 9 91% 92% 91% 88% 88% 89% 89% 88% 89% 88% 84% 85% 85% 87% 85% 87% 85% 84% 84% 84% 83% 81% 81% 83% % 78% 79% 77% 79% 76% 75% 75% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73% 74% 75% 73% 71% 71% 64% 66% 65% 62% 61% 59% 56% 58% 58% 58% 44% 45% 45% 46% 43% 42% 41% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 863 of the 2016 N = 888 of the 2016 N = 767 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 10
11 Proportion of within Each Need Rank Group High Need 42% 42% 38% 37% 43% Moderate Need 33% 33% 34% 33% 26% 28% 28% 29% Low Need 24% Freshman Retention & Graduation 11
12 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Need Rank 10 Low Need Moderate Need High Need % 86% 87% 86% 87% 88% 85% 85% 86% 83% 84% 85% 87% 87% 86% 87% 89% 89% 86% 86% 85% 87% 88% 86% 84% 83% 85% 81% 82% 79% 73% 74% 74% 75% 75% 78% 76% % 69% 7 71% 69% 66% 68% 62% 59% 59% 58% 61% 62% 62% 63% 65% 61% 57% 56% 49% 51% 52% 54% 54% 55% 51% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 706 of the 2016 N = 828 of the 2016 N = 916 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 12
13 Proportion of within Each Academic Performance Group % 54% 58% 56% 61% 66% 64% 65% High Performance 66% 67% 65% 64% 62% 63% 4 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% Moderate Performance 18% 19% 19% 18% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 14% Low Performance 17% 18% 18% Low Performance: < 2.50 GPA with <48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with <37 hours earned Moderate Performance: < 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with hours earned High Performance: >= 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned Freshman Retention & Graduation 13
14 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By First Year Academic Performance High Performance Moderate Performance Low Performance 93% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 93% 94% 95% 87% 88% 9 92% 89% 88% 89% 91% 87% 88% 86% 84% 85% 84% 83% 71% 71% 72% 74% 74% 75% 75% 69% 68% 69% 69% 66% N = 479 of the % 45% 47% 49% 49% 49% 42% 56% 53% 53% 44% 47% 48% 44% 44% 43% First-Year Retention 26% 24% 25% 26% Four-Year Graduation 17% Six-Year Graduation 1 8% 9% 1 8% 6% 6% 6% N = 1,537 of the 2016 N = 435 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 14
15 Movement from Fall Quarter Performance to Year s End Performance 2016 High 81% High: 61% Moderate: 12% Low: 8% Moderate 11% High: 2% Moderate: 5% Low: 4% Low 8% High: <1% Moderate: 1% Low: 7% Freshman Retention & Graduation 15
16 First-Year Retention, Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rates by Gender 10 Females Males First-Year Retention 9 85% 84% 81% 83% 85% 85% 87% 86% 86% 84% 86% 83% 84% 84% 82% 86% 84% 84% 85% 86% 86% 87% 85% 88% 89% 84% 86% 82% % 46% % 73% 74% 75% 73% Six-Year Graduation 67% 62% 63% 61% 62% 56% 58% 59% 59% 53% 51% Four-Year Graduation 65% 67% 69% 69% 71% 69% 67% 65% 61% 56% 57% 54% 49% 51% 52% 52% 46% 44% 38% 4 1 N = 1,417 of the 2016 N = 1,034 of the 2016 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 16
17 Freshman Retention & Graduation 17
18 First-Year Retention, Four-Year, and Six-Year Graduation Rates - By Entry College 10 LAS Business CSH CDM Communication COE % 87% 89% 89% 89% 89% 83% 85% 87% 87% 87% 87% 85% 85% 85% 86% 89% 88% 87% 85% 84% 83% 83% 83% 83% % 76% 77% 79% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 73% 74% 73% 71% 71% 71% 69% 67% 67% 67% 67% 68% 69% 67% 66% 4 64% 61% 61% 62% 65% 59% 57% 54% 55% 67% 68% 64% 62% 61% 53% 58% 55% 57% 59% 56% 55% 51% 51% 52% 49% 49% 45% 1 N= 424 of the 2016 cohort First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N= 629 of the 2016 cohort N= 465 of the 2016 cohort N= 506 of the 2016 cohort N= 239 of the 2016 cohort N=70 of the 2016 cohort '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 18
19 Proportion of from Each Geographic Location, at Time of Entry 43% 45% 47% 47% 44% 47% 48% 44% 43% Suburban 44% 42% 41% 41% 43% 4 26% 26% 27% 17% 29% 21% 28% 19% 33% 16% 16% 29% 33% 19% 36% 37% 4 36% 35% 39% Out-of-State Chicago 18% 17% 18% 19% 18% 16% 1 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Other IL 4% 2% Freshman Retention & Graduation 19
20 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Geographic Origin, at Time of Entry Chicago Suburban Other IL Out-of-State 88% 89% 87% 87% 84% 85% 86% 84% 83% 81% 78% 75% 77% 75% 76% 73% 68% 68% 68% 69% 66% 63% 64% 65% 62% 61% 59% 59% 49% 45% 46% 47% 45% 91% 87% 85% 84% 83% 78% 79% 76% 72% 78% 74% 68% 58% 49% 67% 65% 84% 83% 81% 69% 71% 72% 64% 62% 62% 62% 59% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 380 of the 2016 cohort N= 1,002 of the 2016 cohort N= 87 of the 2016 cohort N= 981 of the 2016 cohort Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracing one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 20
21 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Campus Residence in their 1 st Year 10 Commuter Resident % 83% 84% 67% 68% 67% 48% 47% 43% 85% 7 53% 81% 64% 49% 83% 85% 52% 81% 83% 79% 85% 86% 72% 72% 59% 57% 87% 87% 87% 87% 88% 75% 74% 73% 63% 63% 64% 61% 85% 86% 85% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 700 of the 2016 N = 1,751 of the Freshman Retention & Graduation 21
22 First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Mission Characteristics 10 Pell Eligible Underrep. Students of Color First Generation Overall Freshmen % 84% 85% 8 81% 81% 78% 79% 79% 79% 69% % 66% 67% 68% 67% 64% 61% 52% 52% 53% 49% 49% 46% 47% 46% 47% 86% 87% 85% 82% 82% 84% 85% 82% 82% 71% 72% 73% % 71% 73% 68% 59% 57% 59% 59% 56% 56% 53% 53% 53% 84% 71% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 700 of the 2016 N = 629 of the Measurement Year* N = 787 of the 2016 N = 2,451 in the 2016 *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracing one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 22
23 Retention Rates & Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rate by Special Populations Size of % in High 1 st Yr 1 st Yr 1 st Yr 4 th Year 2016 Performance Retention Retention Retention Graduation of Population of Interest 6 th Year Graduation 2011 Univer. Honors N= % % 89.8% % EDGE Program N= % 88.5% 94.6% 94.2% 74.2% 82.1% Catholic HS N= % 87.2% 89.8% 84.7% 56.5% 71.7% Overall Freshmen N=2, % 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 60.2% 70.7% AP Credit N=1, % 85.5% 86.7% 84.9% % FYAS N= % 82.1% 84.7% 76.5% 50.3% 68.8% CPS N= % 82.6% 81.1% 73.7% 39.7% 61.3% CPS-IB (self rep.) N= % % 86.2% 45.2% 56.4% Probation in 1 st Year N= % 46.9% 52.5% 50.5% 5.2% 13.3% TOPP N= % 81.7% 86.1% 84.2% 58.4% n/a Pathway Honors N= % 94.7% 92.5% 90.3% 72.9% n/a Freshman Retention & Graduation 23
24 Appendix Freshman Retention & Graduation 24
25 Number Entered during Fall Term Overall 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 2,451 Race African-American Asian/Pacific Islander/Alaska Native Caucasian 1,652 1,575 1,574 1,416 1,337 1,501 1,554 1,433 1,528 1,481 1,367 Hispanic/Latino Multiracial Other/Unknown Gender Female 1,428 1,458 1,502 1,494 1,307 1,408 1,459 1,408 1,469 1,417 1,417 Male 1,103 1,055 1,051 1, ,046 1,130 1,014 1,071 1,100 1,034 Race and Gender African-American Male African-American Female Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Male Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Female Caucasian Male Caucasian Female Hispanic/Latino Male Hispanic/Latino Female Multiracial Male Multiracial Female Freshman Retention & Graduation 25
26 Number Entered during Fall Term Overall 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 2,451 Geographic Origin Chicago Elsewhere in IL Out of State / Out of Country , Suburban 1,186 1,182 1,127 1,174 1,071 1,092 1,124 1,074 1, ,002 College Business Communication Computing & Digital Media Education Liberal Arts & Soc. Sci. 1,127 1,152 1,114 1, Music Science & Health Theatre First Year Performance High Performance 1,426 1,536 1,685 1,622 1,454 1,630 1,673 1,627 1,618 1,562 1,537 Moderate Performance Low Performance Academic Preparation High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation 1,149 1,023 1,019 1, Freshman Retention & Graduation 26
27 Methodology All data is based on first-time, full-time, degree-seeking freshman students. FYAS students are included with the cohort entering in the subsequent fall quarter. Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, high school quality ratings. Retention by Entry college does not track the students movements into other colleges at DePaul. The rates are based on if the student persisted or graduated DePaul on the whole, and are measured by the college in which they first entered DePaul in their first fall entry term cohort marks the first year with 1 st year retention rates after the CSH and LAS split. All prior cohorts graduation rates represent the prior college of LA&S. Freshman Retention & Graduation 27
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