BAY AREA HOUSTON ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP A DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND FORECAST

Transcription

1 1 BAY AREA HOUSTON ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP A DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND FORECAST 2/19/2013 Then, Now and Tomorrow

2 2 Preview: Cities and Zip Codes Demographic Profile Education Economic Trends The Future

3 The 13 Cities 3 Clear Lake Shores Dickinson El Lago Friendswood Kemah La Porte League City Nassau Bay Pasadena Seabrook Taylor Lake Village Webster Houston (4 Zip Codes)

4 4 The 17 Zip Codes [With population; Houston Zip Codes]

5 5 Demographic Highlights Then and Now

6 Population Population Growth & Change 6 600,000 BAHEP Region Population Source: US Census by Zip Code 500, , , , , Population Hispanic/Latino

7 A Well-educated Citizenry 7 City-based Educational Attainment 25 Yrs + Graduate/profess. Degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some college, no degree High school graduate 9th to 12th grade, no diploma Less than 9th grade Percent in Category

8 Professional Jobs Emphasis 8 BAHEP Employment by Occupation 2010 City-based Civilian Population > 16 years = 165,926 Production, transport., mat'l moving Natural resources, construct. & maint. Sales and office occupations Service occupations Management, business, science, & arts Percent in Category

9 Above Average Incomes 9 $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $10,000 to $14,999 Less than $10,000 BAHEP Household Income 2010 [Based on Total Households = 118,896 Inflation Adjusted in 2010 Dollars] Percent in Category

10 Large Private Sector 10 BAHEP Region--Class of Worker 2010 [Total Workers = 165,926] 14% 6% Pvt. wage & salary Govt workers Self-employed 80%

11 BAHEP Labor Force & Aerospace 11 BAHEP Employed with Aerospace [Estimated--All Zip Codes] 300, , , , ,000 50, Employed Less Aerospace Aerospace

12 12 Per Capita Income (Amer. Comm. Survey, Non-BAHEP Cities) Nassau Bay $ 53,871 Taylor Lake Village $ 52,404 Clear Lake Shores $ 45,835 El Lago $ 44,681 Friendswood $ 39,515 The Woodlands $ 37,724 League City $ 35,991 Seabrook $ 35,225 Kingwood $ 32,491 Kemah $ 32,136 Dickinson $ 26,543 Pearland $ 26,306 La Porte $ 25,604 Webster $ 25,520 Pasadena $ 19,940

13 13 Schools & University Then and Now

14 BAHEP Region School Districts District Name Clear Creek Dickinson Friendswood La Porte Pasadena Academic Rating Recognized Recognized Exemplary Recognized Recognized

15 BAHEP Region ISD Growth 15 BAHEP REGION: 5-ISD Growth Indicators Student Year Count % Chng. Schools % Chng , , ,

16 16 University of Houston-Clear Lake Fall Term Enrollment 7,580 7,785 8,099 First Freshmen admissions Fall 2014! Hispanic-Serving Institution

17 17 The BAHEP Economy Then and Now

18 US Recessions & BAHEP Cities 18 Unemployment Rates Select BAHEP Cities Recession 2001 Recession Great Recession Friendswood La Porte League City Pasadena Houston MSA

19 Millions $ Broad Major Industry Base 19 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 BAHEP 12-City Major Industry Gross Sales [Excludes Houston] RETAIL PROF. & BUS. SVCS MANUF. HOSPITALITY & LEIS. FINANCE EDUC AND HLTH SVCS CONSTRUCTION $

20 City Labor Force and Employment 20 BAHEP 4-City Employment Counts [Friendswood, La Porte, League City, Pasadena] 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Employed Labor Force

21 Upward Growth Trend 21 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $- BAHEP 12-City Sales Tax Reimbursements (Millions $) Current Infl. Adj.

22 22 The Road Ahead Tomorrow

23 Summary Trends 23 Positive population growth Employment trends on par with Houston MSA, better than US average Sales in major industries returning to longterm growth trends

24 Positive Forces in the Short Term 24 Modest growth for the US, Texas, and Houston area is supported by leading indicators related to: Housing Employment Oil prices Manufacturing Wages/salaries Retail sales

25 US Economic Growth 25 US Leading Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

26 Texas Economic Growth 26 Texas Leading Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

27 Houston Economic Growth Houston-Sugarland-Baytown Business Cycle Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

28 Few Concerns for the Short Term 28 Fiscal Cliff spending cuts (March) Some volatility in oil prices World events: European economy Syria/other conflicts

29 Positive Forces for the Long-Term 29 Regional infrastructure: Healthcare Aerospace Chemical Maritime Population patterns: Young Educated/trained

30 Other Thoughts on the Long-Term 30 Natural gas prices Keystone pipeline Direction of aerospace Long-term Federal budget

31 31 Presenters Robert F. Hodgin, Ph.D. & Roberto Marchesini, Ph.D. with Jason Murasko, Ph.D. & Stephen Cotten, Ph.D. School of Business University of Houston-Clear Lake