JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW & PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW & PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS PREPARED BY EMSI APRIL 2016

2 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Overview of Regional Economies 1 Program Gap Analysis 3 INTRODUCTION 4 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION 5 Jobs by Industry 7 Jobs by Occupation 9 Commuting Patterns 10 Unemployment 13 Educational Attainment 17 CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF THE JOHNSON COUNTY ECONOMY 18 Jobs by Industry 20 Jobs by Occupation 22 Commuting Patterns 24 Unemployment 26 Educational Attainment 29 CHAPTER 3: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 29 Interpreting Gap/Surplus Analysis Results 30 Postsecondary Certificate Level Gap Analysis 33 Associate s Level Gap Analysis 36 Transfer Track (Liberal Arts) Students 36 Potential New Programs 36 Conclusion 39 APPENDIX 1: ABOUT EMSI DATA 40 APPENDIX 2: PROGRAM-TO-OCCUPATION MAPPING 49 APPENDIX 3: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 49 Supply and Demand Model 49 Occupation Demand 51 Education Output 54 APPENDIX 4: ALTERNATIVE GAP ANALYSIS CALCULATIONS 54 Alternative Gap Analysis Tables 59 APPENDIX 5: DETAILED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Johnson County Community College (JCCC) is located in the city of Overland Park and serves fifteen counties in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. This report outlines the economy of JCCC Economic Region, which including Platte, Clinton, Clay, Caldwell, Ray, Jackson, Lafayette, Cass, and Bates Counties in Missouri, as well as Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Johnson, Miami, Douglas, and Linn Counties in Kansas. This report also outlines the economy of Johnson County specifically. The report provides a gap analysis to determine how well the JCCC s program offerings are satisfying regional workforce demand. The report also offers recommendations for new program development. The following are some of the key findings of the analysis: OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL ECONOMIES The industries expected to grow the most in the next 10 years in the JCCC Economic Region are Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction (43%) and Health Care & Social Assistance (24%). Overall, the regional job growth is expected to be 9% over the next decade. In Johnson County, Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction is also expected to grow the most with a 43% growth. Educational Services (34%) and Health Care & Social Assistance (32%) are also expected to be some of the top growing industries. Overall, the county job growth is expected to be 13% over the next decade. Some high-skill occupational categories are projected to see dependable job growth over the next ten years in the JCCC Economic Region and Johnson County, including healthcare support (25% and 38% job growth, respectively), healthcare practitioners & technical (18% and 26% job growth, respectively), and architecture & engineering (18% and 26% job growth, respectively). Between 2010 and 2025, the highest number of average annual job openings in the JCCC Economic Region and Johnson County for workers with postsecondary certificates and above are projected to occur within office & administrative support, sales & related, and business & financial operations. Around 12% of residents in the area commute outside the JCCC Economic Region for work, and roughly 13% of the JCCC Economic Region workers reside outside the area, indicating that there are economic links between the JCCC Economic Region and the surrounding communities for both in-commuters and out-commuters. Around 37% of residents in the county commute outside Johnson County for work, and roughly 45% of Johnson County workers reside outside the county, indicating that there are economic links between Johnson County and the surrounding communities for both in-commuters and out-commuters. The educational composition of the adult population in the JCCC Economic Region (people age 25 and older) has seen a small shift in recent years. Between 2010 and 2015, the proportion of adults with a less than high school diploma or equivalent decreased by 0.8 percentage points (0.4 percentage points for Johnson County), the proportion with an associate s degree increased by 0.5 percentage points (0.7 percentage points for Johnson County), and the proportion of adults with some college decreased by 0.4 percentage points (0.2 percentage points for Johnson County). PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS Between both postsecondary certificate level and associate s degree level, there are a total of 34 programs associated with significant workforce gaps with 11 programs having a significant gap at both levels in the JCCC Economic Region. There were 15 programs associated with significant workforce surpluses; 11 at the postsecondary certificate level and 4 at the associate s degree level. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 1

4 Postsecondary Certificate Level Education There are 18 postsecondary certificate level programs that registered a significant workforce gap in the JCCC Economic Region and 19 in Johnson County. Retailing & Retail Operations has the largest gap in the JCCC Economic Region and Johnson County (gap of 1,777 and 563, respectively). Selling Skills & Sales Operations (gap of 550 and 247, respectively) and Floriculture/Floristry Operations & Management (gap of 529 and 233, respectively) are the second and third largest gaps at the postsecondary certificate level. The top four program surpluses in the JCCC Economic Region at the postsecondary certificate level are: Nursing Assistant/Aide & Patient Care Assistant/Aide (surplus of 362), General Cosmetology/Cosmetologist (surplus of 225), Railroad & Railway Transportation (surplus of 143) 1, and Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training (surplus of 124). The largest surplus in Johnson County is also Nursing Assistant/Aide & Patient Care Assistant/Aide (surplus of 369). 2 There are 28 postsecondary certificate level areas of opportunity. Similar skilled trades and blue-collar occupations like heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers; light truck & delivery services drivers; and bus drivers, school or special client appear to be undersupplied in the JCCC Economic Region. Associate s Degree Level Education There are 16 associate s degree programs that also registered a significant gap in the JCCC Economic Region and 13 in Johnson County. The top two gaps for both JCCC Economic Region and Johnson County are: Accounting Technology/Technician & Bookkeeping (gap of 471 and 219, respectively) and General Administrative Assistant & Secretarial Science (gap of 467 and 180, respectively). The third largest gap for the JCCC Economic Region is General Business Administration and Management (gap of 327) and the third largest gap for Johnson County is Teacher Assistant/Aide (gap of 107). Some of the higher surpluses in the JCCC Economic Region and Johnson County at the associates level include: Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse (surplus of 84 and 39, respectively), Respiratory Care Therapy/ Therapist (surplus of 45 and 11, respectively), and Legal Assistant/Paralegal (surplus of 45 and 15, respectively). Some of the completers are likely getting jobs outside Johnson County or even the JCCC Economic Region. There are eight areas of opportunity at the associate s degree level. Of the eight areas of opportunity at this level, five are in the medical field with the largest gap being medical equipment repairers, which has a gap of 26 and median hourly wages of $22.36 an hour. 1 Many students that earn a Railroad & Railway Transportation certificate are not necessarily employed in the region but are employed nationwide. 2 The surpluses above do not take into account that students may be transferring to other institutions to further their education. This should particularly be considered when looking at nursing related surpluses. 2 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

5 INTRODUCTION Colleges face many challenges in their efforts to identify the training needs of their economic regions. They must account for regional economic trends and the changing quality of the workforce. Furthermore, as technology progresses, colleges need to address the increasingly complex and specialized skills required by employers. In light of these dynamics, an understanding of the regional economy and the demand for skilled labor is vital to the planning efforts of colleges seeking to adapt their program offerings to the requirements of an ever-changing workforce. To gain better insight into economic conditions and workforce trends, Johnson County Community College (JCCC) partnered with Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI) to conduct an economic overview of the College s Economic Region and a workforce gap analysis of the College s program offerings. Gap analysis is a technique used to assess the supply and demand of skilled workers and identify the educational programs that need to be adapted in order to fill any existing or future gaps. The analysis weighs the educational output of JCCC and other regional institutions against the number of job openings related to the institutions program offerings to determine whether an oversupply or an undersupply of skilled workers exists. The goal of the analysis is to provide JCCC with relevant data and information that it can use when solving problems and making decisions about current and future program development. The regional backdrop used in this report is defined as JCCC Economic Region and consists Platte, Clinton, Clay, Caldwell, Ray, Jackson, Lafayette, Cass, and Bates Counties in Missouri, as well as Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Johnson, Miami, Douglas, and Linn Counties in Kansas. In addition, a breakout of Johnson County is also included. JCCC s main campus is located in Overland Park, Kansas. 1 See Figure 1.1 for a map of the region. The report is broken into two chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of employment in the JCCC Economic Region economy with high-level information about current and projected job trends, resident commuting patterns, and unemployment. Chapter 1 also provides further information specifically related to the educational characteristics of the population by gender and ethnicity. Chapter 2 summarizes the results of the program gap analysis and provides recommendations for possible future program needs. After a brief conclusion, detailed information and data are provided in the appendices. 1 The industry and occupation data presented in this report reflect the number of jobs by place of work, not by place of residence. However, the report does assess the commuting patterns of residents to determine where they live and work both within and outside of the region. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 3

6 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION FIGURE 1.1: MAP OF THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION This chapter provides a high-level overview of employment and demographics in the JCCC Economic Region economy, defined by Platte, Clinton, Clay, Caldwell, Ray, Jackson, Lafayette, Cass, and Bates counties in Missouri, as well as Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Johnson, Miami, Douglas, and Linn counties in Kansas (see Figure 1.1). The goal of the chapter is to provide data on the economic and workforce employment trends that either already exist or are developing in the region. Such information is crucial in building awareness of the region s labor force both now and in the future and identifying priority areas where educators can focus their attention. The chapter examines employment and demographics in the JCCC Economic Region accord- FIGURE 1.2: JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION, 2015 TO Jobs Change Number of jobs 50, , , , ,000 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Admin. & Support and Waste Mgmt. & Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government Source: EMSI Complete Data JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

7 ing to the following five indicators: jobs by industry, jobs by occupation, commuting patterns, unemployment, and educational attainment. JOBS BY INDUSTRY Evaluating current and future employment by industry provides information on the economic diversification of a given region. Industries consist of groups of companies that are primarily engaged in producing the same product or service. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the structure used by the U.S. Census Bureau to classify establishments into industries based on their production process (although the final product or service is usually similar for the firms in a given industry). NAICS applies a six-digit hierarchical coding system to organize more than 1,100 detailed industries into 20 larger industry sectors. The breakdown of current and future employment by major industry sector in the JCCC Economic Region appears in Table 1.1 and Figure 1.2. As shown, the three industry sectors with the largest expected change in the JCCC Economic Region are Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction with a 43% change; Health Care & Social Assistance with a 24% change; and Educational Services with an 18% change. Together these sectors made up 158,540 jobs or approximately 12% of total regional employment in The only industry sectors that are expected to contract between 2015 and 2025 are: Information (-5,890 jobs) and Utilities (-28 jobs). Table 1.2, on the next page, shows the employment concentration of the industry sectors in the JCCC Economic Region, measured in terms of location quotients (LQs). LQs are used to assess national competitiveness by TABLE 1.1: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR, 2015 TO 2025 NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 JOBS 2025 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 15,495 15, % 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 5,501 7,875 2,374 43% 22 Utilities 5,179 5,151 (28) (1%) 23 Construction 69,055 79,168 10,113 15% 31 Manufacturing 78,225 78, % 42 Wholesale Trade 53,891 57,452 3,561 7% 44 Retail Trade 136, ,726 5,610 4% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 53,082 57,370 4,288 8% 51 Information 32,291 26,401 (5,890) (18%) 52 Finance and Insurance 92, ,778 13,524 15% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 55,350 57,471 2,121 4% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 109, ,381 18,558 17% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 24,322 26,735 2,413 10% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 84,568 96,422 11,854 14% 61 Educational Services 26,924 31,643 4,719 18% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 146, ,225 34,816 24% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 31,618 33,926 2,308 7% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 96, ,508 5,465 6% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 73,055 76,969 3,914 5% 90 Government 176, ,319 8,094 5% Total 1,365,424 1,493, ,283 9% Source: EMSI Complete Data ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 5

8 TABLE 1.2: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION, 2015 AND 2025 NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 LOCATION QUOTIENT 2025 LOCATION QUOTIENT 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government Source: EMSI Complete Data comparing the concentration of employment in a given industry against the concentration of employment for that same industry across the nation. An LQ equal to one means that the percentage of total employment comprised by an industry in the region exactly matches the percentage of total employment comprised by that industry in the nation. An LQ greater than one means that the industry comprises a greater proportion of total employment in the region than it does in the nation. High LQs (usually anything greater than 1.2) are an indication that the region has a comparative advantage or specialization in certain industries relative to the rest of the nation, or potentially to other competing regions. When evaluated jointly with job counts and expected job growth, high LQs give a sense of the industry sectors that have the greatest potential for workforce investment and where regional economic development professionals are likely to be focusing their efforts. This information is of particular importance to educators seeking to engage in larger conversations with other organizations about aligning program offerings with workforce needs. The following three industry sectors have the highest location quotients in the JCCC Economic Region: Management of Companies & Enterprises (1.40), Information (1.32), and Finance & Insurance (1.25). These industries, along with the Utilities are considered to have a comparative advantage. The relative concentrations of these industries are expected to undergo some changes over the next decade, yet all three of these industry sectors are expected to be above the 1.2 cutoff. 2 2 Note that because LQs represent regional employment relative to national employment, a decreasing LQ does not necessarily mean decreasing employment, and likewise an increasing LQ does not necessarily mean increasing employment. 6 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

9 Table 1.3 outlines the location quotients by 2-digit occupation. The three occupations with the highest location quotients in the JCCC Economic Region are: computer & mathematical occupations (1.29), business & financial operations occupations (1.12), and office & administrative support occupations (1.12). These occupations location quotients are not expected to undergo much change over the next decade. JOBS BY OCCUPATION Researchers often refer to industry data to get a sense of regional economic trends, but in order to better understand the quality of the jobs contained within that region, some knowledge of occupations is needed. This is because the earning levels and education requirements of workers bear more of a relationship to their occupation than to the industry in which they work. For example, the Manufacturing industry while employing a number of assemblers and machine operators also employs people in management occupations and in professional occupations such as engineering. All of these occupations have different pay scales and require varying levels of education and training. Federal agencies use the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system to classify workers into occupational categories based on work performed. The 2010 SOC system contains more than 800 detailed occupations organized according to a five-digit hierarchical coding structure. Detailed occupations with similar job duties are further TABLE 1.3: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION BY OCCUPATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION, 2015 AND 2025 SOC DESCRIPTION 2015 LOCATION QUOTIENT 2025 LOCATION QUOTIENT Management Occupations Business and Financial Operations Occupations Computer and Mathematical Occupations Architecture and Engineering Occupations Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations Community and Social Service Occupations Legal Occupations Education, Training, and Library Occupations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Healthcare Support Occupations Protective Service Occupations Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Personal Care and Service Occupations Sales and Related Occupations Office and Administrative Support Occupations Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Construction and Extraction Occupations Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations Production Occupations Transportation and Material Moving Occupations Source: EMSI Complete Data ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 7

10 TABLE 1.4: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS, JOB CHANGE, AND MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS BY MAJOR OCCUPATION GROUP IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION, 2015 TO 2025 SOC CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 JOBS 2025 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS AVERAGE OPENINGS Management 97, ,285 10,047 10% $ , Business and Financial Operations 89, ,014 11,330 13% $ , Computer and Mathematical 43,049 49,425 6,376 15% $ , Architecture and Engineering 17,518 20,660 3,142 18% $ Life, Physical, and Social Science 9,695 10,719 1,024 11% $ Community and Social Service 19,446 22,075 2,629 14% $ Legal 11,439 12,634 1,195 10% $ Education, Training, and Library 65,657 74,301 8,644 13% $ , Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 41,569 44,207 2,638 6% $ , Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 69,281 81,875 12,594 18% $ , Healthcare Support 29,217 36,418 7,201 25% $ Protective Service 23,679 25,707 2,028 9% $ Food Preparation and Serving Related 99, ,847 6,570 7% $9.63 1, Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 43,732 48,192 4,460 10% $ Personal Care and Service 59,728 67,564 7,836 13% $ , Sales and Related 173, ,156 8,470 5% $ , Office and Administrative Support 203, ,798 13,220 6% $ , Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 3,348 3, % $ Construction and Extraction 58,069 65,481 7,412 13% $ Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 48,883 50,872 1,989 4% $ Production 63,936 65,371 1,435 2% $ Transportation and Material Moving 79,058 86,288 7,230 9% $ ,018 Source: EMSI Complete Data FIGURE 1.3: AVERAGE OPENINGS BETWEEN 2015 AND 2025 FOR WORKERS WITH SOME COLLEGE AND ABOVE BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5, Transportation Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service Legal Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production and Material Moving Source: EMSI Complete Data JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

11 combined to form 23 major groups. Table 1.4, on the next page, shows the breakdown of employment in the JCCC Economic Region by major group, with information on current and projected jobs, job change, average annual openings, and wage rates. Office & administrative support occupations comprise the largest occupation group in the JCCC Economic Region at 203,578 jobs, followed by sales & related occupations at 173,686 jobs. Neither of these occupation groups ranks among the highest paid, however. The median earnings for legal is $40.06 an hour, the highest on the regional pay scale. Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations while an average-sized occupation group have median earnings of $35.76 an hour, second highest on the regional pay scale. Healthcare support and healthcare practitioners & technical occupations are expected to grow by 25% and 18%, respectively, over the next 10 years. Figure 1.3 provides a look at the average annual job openings for workers with some college or above by occupation group. Job openings refer to new jobs due to growth plus replacement jobs due to worker turnover. Between 2015 and 2025, the occupations with the highest number of average annual job openings for workers with some college or above occurs in office & administrative support occupations, sales & related occupations, and business & financial operations occupations. COMMUTING PATTERNS The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program 3 at the U.S. Census Bureau provides information on the residential and employment locations of workers. Jobs by place of work refers to where residents of the region commute to work, and Jobs by place of residence refers to where workers in the region live. Data for the JCCC Economic Region appears in Tables 1.5 and 1.6, with the same information displayed in Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Approximately 12% of residents commute outside the JCCC Economic Region for work, indicating that there are economic links between the Economic Region and surrounding communities. Forty point four percent of residents work in Jackson County, and a significant portion 3 LEHD is an innovative program that uses modern statistical and computing techniques to combine federal and state administrative data on employers and employees with core Census Bureau censuses and surveys while protecting the confidentiality of people and firms that provide the data. These data are for the year TABLE 1.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK COUNTY of residents work in Clay County (16.2%). Table 1.5 and Figure 1.4 display the top ten employment counties for JCCC Economic Region residents. Table 1.6 and Figure 1.5, on the next page, display the top ten counties by place of residency. Of the people who work in the JCCC Economic Region, 87% also live in the region. Jackson County also houses over half of the region s workers (59.5%). JOBS COMMUTE SHARE Jackson County, MO 204, % Clay County, MO 81, % Johnson County, KS 51, % Platte County, MO 30, % Cass County, MO 29, % Wyandotte County, KS 12, % Lafayette County, MO 10, % Ray County, MO 7, % Clinton County, MO 5, % Johnson County, MO 5, % All Other Locations 69, % Source: Census LEHD 2014 FIGURE 1.4: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK 204,738 Jobs 91,965 Jobs 51,185 Jobs 30,069 Jobs 29,128 Jobs 12,702 Jobs 10,220 Jobs 7,378 Jobs 5,322 Jobs 5,111 Jobs ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 9

12 TABLE 1.6: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE COUNTY COUNT COMMUTE SHARE Jackson County, MO 300, % Clay County, MO 77, % Platte County, MO 32, % Cass County, MO 18, % Figure 1.6 presents the inflow and outflow of jobs to and from the JCCC Economic Region. There are 502,934 jobs in the region with 437,959 of these jobs filled by residents and 64,975 jobs going to people living outside the region. Additionally, 61,302 residents commute outside the region for work. The figure clearly illustrates the fact that more workers in-commute than out-commute. St. Louis County, MO 8, % Buchanan County, MO 7, % St. Louis city, MO 6, % Lafayette County, MO 5, % Greene County, MO 4, % Boone County, MO 3, % All Other Locations 40, % Source: Census LEHD 2014 FIGURE 1.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE 300,859 Jobs 77,515 Jobs 32,925 Jobs 18,003 Jobs 8,428 Jobs 7,215 Jobs 6,582 Jobs 5,804 Jobs 4,335 Jobs 3,835 Jobs FIGURE 1.6: IN-FLOW/OUT-FLOW JOB COUNT 64,975 Employed in the Economic Region but Living Outside 61,302 Living in the Economic Region but Employed Outside 437,959 Living and Employed in the Economic Region UNEMPLOYMENT Data on unemployment give researchers an idea of where skills mismatches may exist in the region. Unemployment data can also provide important context when identifying the training programs that are best suited to transitioning unemployed workers into in-demand occupations. Table 1.7 and Figure 1.7, on the next page, present the number of people unemployed by industry sector in the JCCC Economic Region. Data reflect November and follow the same methodology used by the federal statistical agencies to determine the number of workers in an industry that are not currently employed. The unemployment rate is not provided because it is difficult to accurately determine the size of the labor force in a given industry on a monthly basis. Rather than the unemployment rate, the percent of all unemployed for the region and for the nation are provided to display which industry sectors have the highest concentration of unemployed workers. As shown in Table 1.7, the category with the highest number of unemployed is in No Previous Work Experience/ Unspecified (a non-industry labeled as No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified. This is simply a catch-all category for which reliable unemployment data are unavailable.) The second highest number of unemployed is in Retail Trade. The Accommodation & Food Services sector has the third highest number of unemployed. It is common for industries like Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services to have a high percentage of low-skill jobs that require little to no education and training, thus making them more vulnerable to worker turnover. For industry sectors such as Construction, seasonal jobs or jobs of short duration may also lead to high numbers of unemployed workers. Only five industry sectors in the JCCC Economic Region exceed the national concentration of unemployed workers. Accommodation & Food Services and Construction have a higher proportion of unemployed workers than at the national level. On the other hand, Manufacturing and Agri- 10 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

13 FIGURE 1.7: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Admin. & Support and Waste Mgmt. & Remediation Services Educational Services (Private) Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10, Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (November) TABLE 1.7: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED % OF UNEMPLOYED NATIONAL % OF UNEMPLOYED 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 40 0% 1% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 94 0% 1% 22 Utilities 128 0% 0% 23 Construction 3,779 7% 6% 31 Manufacturing 3,978 8% 10% 42 Wholesale Trade 1,155 2% 2% 44 Retail Trade 5,477 11% 11% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 1,627 3% 3% 51 Information 829 2% 2% 52 Finance and Insurance 1,567 3% 3% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 919 2% 1% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,831 6% 5% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 56 0% 0% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 3,553 7% 7% 61 Educational Services (Private) 905 2% 2% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 3,737 7% 7% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,008 2% 2% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 5,053 10% 9% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,070 4% 4% 90 Government 3,332 7% 8% 99 No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 8,329 17% 16% Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (November) ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 11

14 culture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting actually have a lower proportion of unemployed workers than at the national level. Table 1.8 and Figure 1.8, on the next page, provide a breakdown of unemployment in the JCCC Economic Region by major occupation group. As shown, occupational groups that contain the highest number of unemployed workers are office & administrative support occupations (7,933 unemployed workers), no previous work experience/ unspecified occupations (5,890 unemployed workers), and construction & extraction occupations (4,801 unemployed workers). Though some of these occupational groups have a relatively high number of annual openings (see Figure 1.3), high turnover still leads to a high number of unemployed. A number of occupation groups have a concentration of unemployed workers that is either at or below the national average, including farming, fishing, & forestry occupations and installation, maintenance, & repair occupations. Construction & extraction occupations and office & administrative support occupations have a much higher concentration of unemployed than at the national level. TABLE 1.8: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION SOC CODE DESCRIPTION NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED % OF UNEMPLOYED NATIONAL % OF UNEMPLOYED Management 2,742 5% 6% Business and Financial Operations 1,430 3% 3% Computer and Mathematical 580 1% 1% Architecture and Engineering 417 1% 1% Life, Physical, and Social Science 250 0% 0% Community and Social Service 383 1% 1% Legal 296 1% 1% Education, Training, and Library 1,753 3% 3% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 902 2% 2% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 970 2% 2% Healthcare Support 1,149 2% 2% Protective Service 534 1% 1% Food Preparation and Serving Related 3,329 7% 7% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 2,910 6% 5% Personal Care and Service 2,029 4% 4% Sales and Related 4,611 9% 10% Office and Administrative Support 7,933 16% 15% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 85 0% 1% Construction and Extraction 4,801 10% 8% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 920 2% 2% Production 2,702 5% 6% Transportation and Material Moving 3,854 8% 7% No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 5,890 12% 12% Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (November) 12 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

15 FIGURE 1.8: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service Legal Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8, Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (November) EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT This section describes the educational attainment of the population in the JCCC Economic Region for adults aged 25 years and older. This information is useful for educators targeting specific population groups that have low education levels. Educational attainment data in this section are presented by gender and by ethnicity and are broken out according to the following categories: 1) less than a high school degree, 2) high school degree, 3) some college, 4 4) associate s degree, 5) bachelor s degree, and 6) graduate degree and higher. Overall Educational Attainment Table 1.9, on the next page, and Figure 1.9 display the educational attainment of the overall adult population in the JCCC Economic Region, without reference to gender and ethnicity. In the JCCC Economic Region for 2015, the percentage of the adult population with a high school diploma or less is 9%, which is less than the national average of 13%. Even though less than national average, these data suggest there is still an opportunity for educators in the JCCC Economic Region to boost the percentage of adults 4 The Some college category includes individuals who attended college but did not successfully obtain a degree and individuals who have received a postsecondary vocational award or professional certification but did not receive an associate s or bachelor s degree. FIGURE 1.9: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION Bachelor s Degree 22% Associate s Degree 7% Bachelor s Degree 18% Associate s Degree 8% P P Graduate Degree and Higher 12% Less than HS diploma or equivalent 9% REGION Graduate Degree and Higher 11% NATION Some College 21% Some College 23% Less than HS diploma or equivalent 13% HS Diploma or equivalent 27% HS Diploma or equivalent 29% ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 13

16 TABLE 1.9: BREAKDOWN OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, 2010 AND 2015 EDUCATION LEVEL 2010 POPULATION 2010 % DISTRIBUTION 2015 POPULATION 2015 % DISTRIBUTION POPULATION CHANGE % DISTRIBUTION CHANGE Less than HS diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent 135, % 130, % (4,775) (0.8%) 369, % 390, % 21, % Some college 325, % 334, % 9,401 (0.4%) Associate's degree 96, % 108, % 12, % Bachelor's degree 297, % 318, % 20, % Graduate degree or higher 169, % 179, % 9, % Source: EMSI Complete Data with an associate s degree or higher. Out of all the education categories in Table 1.8, the people that are most likely to seek education and training from JCCC are those in the Less than high school diploma, High school diploma, and Some college categories. Together these categories total 856,472 people for 2015, or 59% of the entire adult population in the region. Between 2010 and 2015, the proportion of the overall adult population with Less than a high school diploma decreased by 0.8 percentage points. High school diploma increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the proportion of adults with a Some college decreased by 0.4 percentage points. 5 Meanwhile, the proportion of the adult population with Associate s degree increased by 0.5 percentage points. The proportion of adults with a Bachelor s degree increased by 0.4 percentage points, and those with a Graduate degree and higher increased by 0.1 percentage points. FIGURE 1.10: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION BY GENDER Bachelor s Degree 22% P Graduate Degree and Higher 13% Associate s Degree 7% Less than HS Diploma or equivalent 9% MALES Some College 22% HS Diploma or equivalent 27% Educational Attainment by Gender The distribution of educational attainment by gender is fairly even in the JCCC Economic Region. Males are more likely to have Less than high school diploma, more likely to have a High school diploma or equivalent, level of education, less likely to have Some college, and less likely to have an Associate s degree levels. This information appears in Table 1.10 and Figure The column labeled % Change in Table 1.8 refers to the proportional change, not to the percent change between 2010 and For example, if a category comprised 20% of the total adult population in 2010 and 25% of the total adult population in 2015, the proportional change is equal to the difference between the two values (in this example, 5%). Bachelor s Degree 21% Associate s Degree 8% P Graduate Degree and Higher 12% Less than HS Diploma or equivalent 9% FEMALES Some College 24% HS Diploma or equivalent 26% 14 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

17 TABLE 1.10: BREAKDOWN OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND GENDER EDUCATION LEVEL MALES PROPORTION FEMALES PROPORTION Less than high school diploma or equivalent 66, % 64, % High school diploma or equivalent 191, % 199, % Some college 155, % 179, % Associate's degree 46, % 61, % Bachelor's degree 156, % 161, % Graduate degree and higher 88, % 90, % Source: EMSI Complete Data FIGURE 1.11: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION BY ETHNICITY Hispanic, All Types Two or More Races, Non- Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaskan Native, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% = = = = = = = <HS Diploma High School Diploma Some College Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Graduate Degree and Higher Educational Attainment by Ethnicity Figure 1.11 and Table 1.11 display the educational attainment of the adult population by ethnicity. The Asian, Non-Hispanic ethnicity category has the highest percentage of adults with post-secondary degrees (58%). White, Non-Hispanic category follows with 45%. Hispanic, All Types category has the lowest levels of education attainment. For this group, only 22% of the adult population has a post-secondary degree and 62% has a high school diploma or less. The remaining 17% have some college. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 15

18 TABLE 1.11: BREAKDOWN OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE JCCC ECONOMIC REGION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND ETHNICITY < HS DIPLOMA HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA SOME COLLEGE ASSOCIATE S DEGREE BACHELOR S DEGREE GRADUATE DEGREE AND HIGHER White, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaskan Native, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Two or More Races, Non- Hispanic Hispanic, All Types COUNT 66, , ,374 83, , ,827 PERCENT 6% 26% 23% 7% 24% 13% COUNT 22,015 52,933 46,544 14,299 17,234 10,353 PERCENT 13% 32% 28% 9% 11% 6% COUNT 708 2,088 2, PERCENT 10% 29% 31% 11% 13% 6% COUNT 6,494 5,858 4,094 2,487 9,231 11,007 PERCENT 17% 15% 10% 6% 24% 28% COUNT PERCENT 8% 38% 30% 11% 9% 3% COUNT 1,941 4,313 4,827 1,613 3,409 2,211 PERCENT 11% 24% 26% 9% 19% 12% COUNT 33,285 27,014 16,286 5,523 10,899 4,682 PERCENT 34% 28% 17% 6% 11% 5% Source: EMSI Complete Data JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

19 CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF THE JOHNSON COUNTY ECONOMY FIGURE 2.1: MAP OF JOHNSON COUNTY This chapter provides a high-level overview of employment and demographics in the economy of Johnson County (see Figure 2.1). The goal of the chapter is to provide data on the economic and workforce employment trends that either already exist or are developing in the county. Such information is crucial in building awareness of the county s labor force both now and in the future and identifying priority areas where educators can focus their attention. The chapter examines employment and demographics in Johnson County according to the following five indicators: jobs by industry, jobs by occupation, commuting patterns, unemployment, and educational attainment. FIGURE 2.2: JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN JOHNSON COUNTY, 2015 TO Jobs Change Number of jobs 10, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Admin. & Support and Waste Mgmt. & Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government Source: EMSI Complete Data ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 17

20 JOBS BY INDUSTRY Evaluating current and future employment by industry provides information on the economic diversification of a given region. Industries consist of groups of companies that are primarily engaged in producing the same product or service. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the structure used by the U.S. Census Bureau to classify establishments into industries based on their production process (although the final product or service is usually similar for the firms in a given industry). NAICS applies a six-digit hierarchical coding system to organize more than 1,100 detailed industries into twenty larger industry sectors. The breakdown of current and future employment by major industry sector in Johnson County appears in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.2. As shown, the three industry sectors with the largest expected change in Johnson County are Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction with a 43% change, Educational Services with and 34% change, and Health Care & Social Assistance with a 32% change. Together these sectors made up 55,486 jobs or approximately 13% of total regional employment in The only industry sectors that are expected to contract between 2015 and 2025 are: Information (-3,500 jobs) and Utilities (-86 jobs). Table 2.2, on the next page, shows the employment concentration of the industry sectors in Johnson County, measured in terms of location quotients (LQs). LQs are used to assess national competitiveness by comparing the concentration of employment in a given industry against the concentration of employment for that same industry across the nation. An LQ equal to one means that the percentage of total employment comprised by an industry in the county exactly matches the percentage of total TABLE 2.1: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR, 2015 TO 2025 NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 JOBS 2025 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (86) (11%) 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 2,418 3,448 1,030 43% 22 Utilities 2,059 2, % 23 Construction 19,394 22,635 3,241 17% 31 Manufacturing 18,554 19, % 42 Wholesale Trade 20,557 21, % 44 Retail Trade 43,763 43, % 48 Transportation and Warehousing 13,355 15,643 2,288 17% 51 Information 16,604 13,104 (3,500) (21%) 52 Finance and Insurance 43,026 50,088 7,062 16% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20,193 21,751 1,558 8% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 47,835 58,910 11,075 23% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 11,690 13,636 1,946 17% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 36,590 44,134 7,544 21% 61 Educational Services 9,073 12,148 3,075 34% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 43,995 58,045 14,050 32% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 9,337 9, % 72 Accommodation and Food Services 27,453 29,449 1,996 7% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 20,550 22,055 1,505 7% 90 Government 32,709 37,373 4,664 14% Total 439, ,228 59,282 13% Source: EMSI Complete Data JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

21 TABLE 2.2: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN JOHNSON COUNTY, 2015 AND 2025 NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 LOCATION QUOTIENT 2025 LOCATION QUOTIENT 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government Source: EMSI Complete Data employment comprised by that industry in the nation. An LQ greater than one means that the industry comprises a greater proportion of total employment in the county than it does in the nation. High LQs (usually anything greater than 1.2) are an indication that the county has a comparative advantage or specialization in certain industries relative to the rest of the nation, or potentially to other competing counties. When evaluated jointly with job counts and expected job growth, high LQs give a sense of the industry sectors that have the greatest potential for workforce investment and where county economic development professionals are likely to be focusing their efforts. This information is of particular importance to educators seeking to engage in larger conversations with other organizations about aligning program offerings with workforce needs. The following three industry sectors have the highest location quotients in Johnson County: Information (2.11), Management of Companies & Enterprises (2.09), and Finance & Insurance (1.81). These industries, along with the Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Administration & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services are all considered to have a comparative advantage. The relative concentrations of the top three industries are expected to undergo some changes over the next decade, yet all three of these industry sectors are expected to be above the 1.2 cutoff. 6 Table 2.3, on the next page, outlines the location quotients by 2-digit occupation. The three occupations with the highest location quotients in Johnson County are: computer & mathematical occupations (1.56), business & financial operations occupations (1.41), and office & administrative support occupations (1.24). These occupations location quotients are not expected to undergo much change over the next decade. 6 Note that because LQs represent regional employment relative to national employment, a decreasing LQ does not necessarily mean decreasing employment, and likewise an increasing LQ does not necessarily mean increasing employment. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 19

22 TABLE 2.3: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION BY OCCUPATION IN JOHNSON COUNTY, 2015 AND 2025 SOC DESCRIPTION 2015 LOCATION QUOTIENT 2025 LOCATION QUOTIENT Management Occupations Business and Financial Operations Occupations Computer and Mathematical Occupations Architecture and Engineering Occupations Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations Community and Social Service Occupations Legal Occupations Education, Training, and Library Occupations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Healthcare Support Occupations Protective Service Occupations Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Personal Care and Service Occupations Sales and Related Occupations Office and Administrative Support Occupations Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Construction and Extraction Occupations Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations Production Occupations Transportation and Material Moving Occupations Source: EMSI Complete Data JOBS BY OCCUPATION Researchers often refer to industry data to get a sense of county economic trends, but in order to better understand the quality of the jobs contained within that county, some knowledge of occupations is needed. This is because the earning levels and education requirements of workers bear more of a relationship to their occupation than to the industry in which they work. For example, the Manufacturing industry while employing a number of assemblers and machine operators also employs people in management occupations and in professional occupations such as engineering. All of these occupations have different pay scales and require varying levels of education and training. Federal agencies use the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system to classify workers into occupational categories based on work performed. The 2010 SOC system contains more than 800 detailed occupations organized according to a five-digit hierarchical coding structure. Detailed occupations with similar job duties are further combined to form 23 major groups. Table 2.4, on the next page, shows the breakdown of employment in Johnson County by major group, with information on current and projected jobs, job change, average annual openings, and wage rates. Office & administrative support occupations comprise the largest occupation group in Johnson County at 72,718 jobs, followed by sales & related occupations at 65,074 jobs. Neither of these occupation groups ranks among the highest paid, however. The median earnings for legal is $40.63 an hour, the highest on the county pay scale. Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations while 20 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

23 TABLE 2.4: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS, JOB CHANGE, AND MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS BY MAJOR OCCUPATION GROUP IN JOHNSON COUNTY, 2015 TO 2025 SOC CODE DESCRIPTION 2015 JOBS 2025 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS AVERAGE OPENINGS Management 29,528 34,176 4,648 16% $ Business and Financial Operations 36,166 42,023 5,857 16% $ , Computer and Mathematical 16,982 19,591 2,609 15% $ Architecture and Engineering 7,654 9,635 1,981 26% $ Life, Physical, and Social Science 3,480 4, % $ Community and Social Service 4,302 5, % $ Legal 3,477 3, % $ Education, Training, and Library 16,900 21,138 4,238 25% $ Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 14,981 16,126 1,145 8% $ Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 19,006 23,961 4,955 26% $ Healthcare Support 8,920 12,314 3,394 38% $ Protective Service 5,640 6, % $ Food Preparation and Serving Related 28,821 31,817 2,996 10% $ Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 12,650 14,324 1,674 13% $ Personal Care and Service 18,650 21,957 3,307 18% $ Sales and Related 65,074 68,085 3,011 5% $ , Office and Administrative Support 72,718 80,988 8,270 11% $ , Farming, Fishing, and Forestry % $ Construction and Extraction 16,303 18,959 2,656 16% $ Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 14,181 14, % $ Production 15,275 16,637 1,362 9% $ Transportation and Material Moving 25,014 28,461 3,447 14% $ Source: EMSI Complete Data FIGURE 2.3: AVERAGE OPENINGS BETWEEN 2015 AND 2025 FOR WORKERS WITH SOME COLLEGE AND ABOVE BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN JOHNSON COUNTY ,000 1,500 2,000 Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service Legal Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving Source: EMSI Complete Data ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 21

24 an average-sized occupation group have median earnings of $36.79 an hour, second highest on the county pay scale. Healthcare support; healthcare practitioners & technical; and architecture & engineering occupations are expected to grow by 38%, 26%, and 26%, respectively, over the next 10 years. Figure 2.3 provides a look at the average annual job openings for workers with some college or above by occupation group. Job openings refer to new jobs due to growth plus replacement jobs due to worker turnover. Between 2015 and 2025, the occupations with the highest number of average annual job openings for workers with some college or above occurs in office & administrative support occupations, sales & related occupations, and business & financial operations occupations. COMMUTING PATTERNS The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program 7 at the U.S. Census Bureau provides information on the residential and employment locations of workers. Jobs by place of work refers to where residents of the county commute to work, and Jobs by place of residence refers to where workers in the county live. Data for Johnson County appears in Tables 1.4 and 1.5, with the same information displayed in Figures 1.4 and LEHD is an innovative program that uses modern statistical and computing techniques to combine federal and state administrative data on employers and employees with core Census Bureau censuses and surveys while protecting the confidentiality of people and firms that provide the data. TABLE 2.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK TABLE 2.6: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE COUNTY COUNT COMMUTE SHARE COUNTY COUNT COMMUTE SHARE Jackson County, MO 162, % Clay County, MO 39, % Johnson County, KS 21, % Platte County, MO 7, % Cass County, MO 7, % Wyandotte County, KS 7, % Lafayette County, MO 6, % Ray County, MO 5, % Clinton County, MO 4, % Johnson County, MO 3, % All Other Locations 28, % Source: Census LEHD Jackson County, MO 42, % Clay County, MO 5, % Platte County, MO 2, % St. Louis County, MO 1, % Cass County, MO % Boone County, MO % St. Louis city, MO % Greene County, MO % Buchanan County, MO % Cook County, IL % All Other Locations 4, % Source: Census LEHD FIGURE 2.4: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK FIGURE 2.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE 162,953 Jobs 39,623 Jobs 21,368 Jobs 7,945 Jobs 7,751 Jobs 7,506 Jobs 6,725 Jobs 5,269 Jobs 4,749 Jobs 3,971 Jobs 42,853 Jobs 5,235 Jobs 2,037 Jobs 1,109 Jobs 921 Jobs 527 Jobs 387 Jobs 386 Jobs 382 Jobs 221 Jobs 22 JOHNSON COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE

25 Approximately 37% of residents commute outside Johnson County for work, indicating that there are economic links between the county and surrounding communities 8. 55% of residents work in Jackson County, and a significant portion of residents work in Clay County (13.4%). Table 2.5 and Figure 2.4 display the top ten employment counties for Johnson County residents. Table 2.6 and Figure 2.5 display the top ten counties by place of residency. Of the people who work in Johnson County, 54% also live in the county. Jackson County also houses nearly three fourths of the county s workers (73.3%). Figure 2.6 presents the inflow and outflow of jobs to and from Johnson County. There are 296,369 jobs in the county with 162,953 of these jobs filled by residents and 133,416 jobs going to people living outside the county. Additionally, 95,825 residents commute outside the county for work. The figure clearly illustrates the fact that more workers in-commute than out-commute. 8 Jobs by place of work data uses 2011 data because 2012 and 2013 are unavailable. However, jobs by place of residence does contain 2013 data. FIGURE 2.6: IN-FLOW/OUT-FLOW JOB COUNT 133,416 Employed in the Economic Region but Living Outside 95,825 Living in the Economic Region but Employed Outside 162,953 Living and Employed in the Economic Region TABLE 2.7: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN JOHNSON COUNTY NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED % OF UNEMPLOYED NATIONAL % OF UNEMPLOYED 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1 0% 1% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 16 0% 1% 22 Utilities 18 0% 0% 23 Construction 734 7% 6% 31 Manufacturing 502 5% 10% 42 Wholesale Trade 361 4% 2% 44 Retail Trade % 11% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 280 3% 3% 51 Information 402 4% 2% 52 Finance and Insurance 557 6% 3% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 209 2% 1% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services % 5% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 23 0% 0% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,213 12% 7% 61 Educational Services (Private) 236 2% 2% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 679 7% 7% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 99 1% 2% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 583 6% 9% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 330 3% 4% 90 Government 408 4% 8% 99 No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 1,345 14% 16% Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (November) ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS 23