JUNE 2014 CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY: DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

Transcription

1 JUNE 2014 CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY: DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

2 CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY 1 INTRODUCTION 2 KEY FINDINGS 4 POPULATION FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY 6 DISTRICT-WIDE POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE GROUP 7 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY 10 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: 4 SCENARIOS 15 APPENDIX 1 - HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND HISTORICAL CHARTER SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHARTS 18 APPENDIX 2 - ENROLLMENT FORECASTS BY ATTENDANCE ZONE

3 1 INTRODUCTION The City School District of Albany has requested TeamWorks International of Centerville, MN to provide a detailed, demographic and enrollment study across the district which will be used for the purpose of estimating future building aid on capital projects relating to facility utilization. More specifically, this report presents a series of 10-year student enrollment forecasts by grade for the City School District of Albany based on overall population forecasts. The population forecasts presented here use figures from the 2010 U.S. Census as a base-year population data set, and then extrapolate this data based on a set of significant factors. These factors include fertility rates, mortality rates, and net migration rates. by grade in a given year by the number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year based on historical student enrollments. An average of long-term and short-term survival ratios was then used to forecast future 1 st through 12 th graders. Here again, student enrollment forecasts were calculated for each attendance zone, and these figures were then used to calculate the overall student forecasts for the City School District of Albany. For the purpose of this study, 9 attendance zones were created to get a better understanding of the population dynamics that occur within each zone (Map 1). These zones are loosely based on current district elementary attendance areas. However, the attendance zones were modified due to gaps, overlaps, and general inconsistencies found with the district s current attendance boundary configuration. In addition, the attendance zone boundaries created here align with U.S. Census block boundaries, thus providing a more robust population forecast. (Note - a census block is the smallest geographic unit used by the United States Census Bureau to report demographic data). Ten-year population forecasts were developed for each attendance zone, and these totals were then rolled into a district-wide forecast. Student enrollment forecasts by grade level were then generated from the overall population forecasts. Future pre-kindergartners and future kindergartners were extracted from the overall forecasted population by taking the historical survival ratio of PK and kindergarten enrollment compared with historical resident births. Forecasted enrollments for grades 1 through 12 were then derived by employing a cohort survival methodology. With this method survival ratios were calculated by dividing the number of students

4 2 KEY FINDINGS The overall population within the City School District of Albany is forecasted to decline in the next 10 years The overall total number of resident births within the City School District of Albany is projected to decline in the next 10 years The Albany City School District has limited new home construction Existing home sales, as well as occupancy rates of rental properties will play a much larger role in future student enrollments than new residential construction The main driver impacting the decrease in residential births seems to primarily be the decline of non-college, childbearing female residents; particularly those between the ages of Total PK-12 enrollment is forecasted to peak around school year 2017/2018 or 2018/2019; after which total enrollment across the district is expected to decline Total high school enrollment is forecasted to peak in school year 2023/2024; after which it is expected to decline The average historical retention loss from 9 th through 12 th grade based on the historical data on hand is approximately -35.5%. Future overall student enrollments are likely to be more impacted by the opening and closing of private/charter schools, as opposed to the growth/decline in the overall school-age population District policy changes in tackling low graduation rates will also have a great impact on future student enrollments; especially at the high school level

5 3 Map 1: City School District of Albany & Attendance Zones

6 4 POPULATION FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY Six data sets were utilized in order to perform the population and enrollment forecasts. These data sets included: 1. A base year population (2010 U.S. Census figures) 2. Age-specific fertility rates 3. Age-specific mortality rates 4. Net migration rates 5. Historical enrollment figures by grade 6. Historical live births First, the overall 2010 U.S. Census population was divided by gender and then age. Those between the ages of 0 through 19 were reported as their own individual age cohort, while those 20 and older were divided into five-year age cohorts from ages through ages 85+ (25-29, 30-34, 35-39, etc ). The population forecasts were then derived using the Cohort-Component Method of forecasting where population changes were projected separately for each birth cohort. Each year, a new birth cohort was added to the population by applying estimated fertility rates to the non-college female population in their child-bearing years (ages 15 45). The base population was then advanced each year by using estimated agespecific mortality rates and net migration rates. Age specific fertility rates were derived by calculating average fertility rates for Albany County from 2006 through 2012 for each age cohort of females in their child bearing years (Table 1). Historical fertility rate data was obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics. It was assumed that average fertility rates would remain relatively constant in the future, and these average fertility rates were utilized throughout the entire forecast for each age cohort. TABLE 1: AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES PER 1,000 FEMALES Year Average *Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics Nationwide the overall total fertility rate has been declining since the post World War II baby boom. This has further been exacerbated by the recent Great Recession as high unemployment has derailed many young people s plans to start families. In addition, there seems to be a trend among younger adults to postpone having children. Forty years ago, fertility rates among women in their 20s were significantly higher than those of women in their 30s. In 1970, there were 168 births per 1,000 women ages 20 to 24, compared with 73 births per 1,000 women ages 30 to 34. However, this gap has steadily narrowed over time. By 2009 for the first time in U.S. history fertility rates among women ages 30 to 34 (97.5 births per 1,000 women) exceeded those for women ages 20 to 24 (96 births per 1,000 women). These patterns seem to be indicative of those that are occurring in Albany.

7 5 Despite the overall decline in births, overall fertility rates tend to decline slowly over time, and they seem to have a secondary impact on the total number of births in a particular region. In Albany, the main driver in the total number of births seems to be impacted primarily by the total number of child-bearing female residents; particularly those between the ages of Age specific mortality rates were derived by taking average mortality rates for Albany County from 2006 through 2011 for each age cohort (Table 2). Here again, historical mortality rates were obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics. Average mortality rates were assumed to remain constant into the future, and were applied to each age cohort throughout the entire forecast. As with fertility rates; mortality rates tend to change slowly over time, and are mostly impacted by the local population over the age of 65. Net migration data was compiled by using Internal Revenue reports for Albany County from 2006 through 2010 (Table 3). The IRS is able to compare tax return addresses from one year to the next and generate data on the relocation patterns of tax filers and their dependents migrating to or from a particular county. It should be noted that the number of dependents identified on an individual's tax return in consecutive years may vary over time (births, death, marriage, dependency status, etc ). In addition, the data does not include the number of residents who were either filing a tax return for the very first time, did not file a tax return, or were not claimed as exemptions on another tax return. However, this information is sufficient in determining overall patterns of migration. Net migration data was then compared to yearly total population data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate an overall migration rate for each year. The average migration rate (-4.77) was utilized throughout the entire forecast. Thus, Albany experiences an average overall out-migration of 4.77 people per 1,000 residents on an annual basis. TABLE 2: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATES PER 1,000 PEOPLE AGE GROUPS Year Average *Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics TABLE 3: MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000 PEOPLE Year In-Migration Out-Migration Net-Migration Total Migration Rate Population per 1, ,565 13,983-1, , ,763 14,545-1, , ,625 13, , ,456 13,620-2, , ,702 12,946-1, , Average 12,222 13,673-1, , *Data Source: Internal Revenue Service & U.S. Censu Bureau

8 6 DISTRICT-WIDE POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE GROUP Table 4 gives a summary of the total forecasted population and age profile that comprises Albany City School District boundary. Data from 2010 is based on the 2010 U.S. Census. Data for the years 2013 and 2023 are based on forecasts provided by TeamWorks, International using the methodology outlined above. Overall, it is estimated that the total population will decline by -1.1% in 10 years. If we summarize this chart even further into 3 separate age groups of 0 19 year olds, year olds and 55 years old and greater, we find that the total population for these particular groups in 2013 was 22,398, 49,701, and 25,394, respectively. Thus, year olds made up 54.7% of the population followed by those ages 0-19 (22.8%), while those 55 and older made up the remaining 23.0% of the total population. Since 2010, 0 19 year olds and those ages years old have decreased by -2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. In the same time period those over the age of 54 have increased by 4.9%. Ten-year forecasts estimate that these trends are expected to continue. Those ages 0 19 are expected to decline another -5.5%%, while those ages are estimated to decline by -6.7%. However, those 55 and older are again expected to see gains, growing another 17.3% in 10 years. It is estimated that the age group over the age of 54 is the only age group that will see an increase in the overall share of the total population between 2013 and By 2023, those 55 and older will comprise 26.4% of the total population (up from 22.2% in 2013). Those 19 and younger will make up a smaller share of the total population (22.0% from 23.0% in 2013), while year olds will account for 51.6% of the total population (down from 54.7% in 2013). These trends reflect the overall trends seen throughout the rest of the country as the nation s baby boom generation enters into retirement years. TABLE 4: POPULATION AND AGE PROFILE Ages Number % Number % Number % % Change 0-4 5, % 5, % 5, % -2.2% 5-9 4, % 4, % 4, % -3.6% , % 4, % 4, % -6.1% , % 8, % 7, % -8.4% , % 15, % 13, % -11.9% , % 16, % 16, % -4.2% , % 10, % 10, % 2.8% , % 10, % 9, % -12.4% , % 10, % 10, % -0.2% , % 5, % 8, % 53.8% , % 3, % 4, % 16.5% 85+ 2, % 2, % 2, % 4.3% Totals 97, % 97, % 96, % -1.1% *Data Source: 2010 Data form U.S. Census & 2013, 2023 Data Forecast By TeamWorks, International

9 7 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY It was first necessary to forecast overall future births in the region in order to forecast pre-kindergartners and kindergarteners that might potentially be attending Albany City Schools in the next 10 years. Historical resident birth data for the district was obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics for the years 2003 through 2012 (Table 5). The total number of births fluctuated in that time from a low of 1,199 in 2003 to a high of 1,316 in Resident births for the years 2013 through 2020 were forecasted based on the overall population forecasts derived from the methodology described above. Forecasts for potential pre-kindergarteners and kindergarteners were then obtained by applying average historical survival ratios to projected birth figures to obtain enrollment figures for both PK and K. The survival ratio for kindergarten enrollment was derived by dividing the number of kindergarten students in a given year by the total number of births five years earlier. Likewise, the survival ratio of pre-kindergarten students in a given year was obtained by dividing the total number of births 4 years earlier. An average of both short-range and long-range survival ratios was then applied to the total number of forecasted births to get enrollment estimates for potential PK and Kindergarten students. Forecasts for grades 1 through 12 were then obtained using a cohort survival method where survival ratios were derived by dividing the number of students in any given year by the number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year. Here again an average of both short-range and long-range survival ratios were utilized to forecast student enrollments. This ratio was then applied to the total number of students in a particular grade in a given year to forecast the total number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year. Table 6 reflects historical student enrolment data by grade from school year 2006/2007 through the current school year of 2013/2014 for the City School District of Albany. Grade to grade survival ratios used in the enrollment forecasts are also reported here. Since 2006/2007, total PK-12 enrollment has grown by 2.3% from 8,766 to 8,967 total students. However, all of this growth can be attributed to the growth in PK, which grew 91.6% in the same time period. In fact, declines were seen across the board for grades K-12 (-1.1%), grades K-5 (-18.9%), grades 6-8 (-5.5%), and grades 9-12 (-17.0%). However, since school year 2010/2011 all grade levels with the exception of grades 9-12 have experienced a rebound in enrollment. These recent increases can most likely be attributed to the changing private and charter school dynamics occurring within the district; especially those related to the closing of New Covenant Charter School at the end of school year 2009/2010. Thus, future overall student enrollments are likely to be more impacted by the opening and closing of private/charter schools, as opposed to the growth/decline in the overall school-age population. Appendix 1 presents charts reflecting the historical public school enrollment versus the historical charter school enrollment by different grade levels. In addition, the biggest retention of students occurs between the 8 th and 9 th grades where the average retention rate is 111.7%. This is likely due to the fact that families with students attending private/charter schools have opted to finish high school with the City School District of Albany. However, from 9 th through 12 th grades student retention drops from year to year. For example, in 2006/2007 there were 937 students enrolled in the 9 th grade. However, by the time they should be seniors (2009/2010) there were only 503 total 12 th graders enrolled. This represents an overall loss of -46.3%. The average retention loss from 9 th -12 th grade based on the historical data on hand is approximately -35.5%. Thus, district policy changes in tackling low graduation rates will also have a great impact on future student enrollments; especially at the high school level.

10 8 TABLE 5: RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS Number of Year to Enter Number of Pre- Pre- Year of Year to Enter Kindergarten # of Births Kindergarten Pre- Kindergarten Kindergarten Birth Kindergarten Survival Ratio Students Kindergarten Students Survival Ratio , , , , , , , , * , * ** , * ** FORECASTED LIVE BIRTHS , * ** , * ** , * ** , * ** , * ** , * ** , * ** , * ** *Projected Kindergateners **Projected Pre-Kindergarteners ***Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics

11 9 TABLE 6: COMBINED HISTORICAL STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & SURVIVAL RATIOS Historical Enrollment Grade Survival Ratio Grade to Grade PK Birth to Pre-K K Birth to K K to 1st st to 2nd nd to 3rd rd to 4th th to 5th th to 6th th to 7th th to 8th th to 9th th to 10th th to 11th th to 12th Total PK-12 8,766 8,553 8,398 8,647 8,776 8,429 8,626 8,967 Total K-12 8,445 8,236 7,812 7,930 8,185 7,838 8,035 8,352 Total K-5 3,774 3,708 3,527 3,692 4,037 4,028 4,135 4,255 Total 6-8 1,915 1,713 1,617 1,640 1,666 1,618 1,736 1,809 Total ,756 2,815 2,668 2,598 2,482 2,192 2,164 2,288 Survival Ratios

12 10 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: 4 SCENARIOS Tables 7 10 present a series of 10-year student enrollment forecasts for the Albany Public School District. Each scenario accounts for a different set of factors that may impact student enrollment in the future. All 4 scenarios utilize the grade by grade survival ratios described above. In addition, forecasted pre-kindergarteners and kindergarteners are based on the overall population forecasts described earlier in the report, and these are in turn are cycled through the forecast from year to year. Tables in Appendix 2 present enrollment forecasts by grade for each of the 9 attendance zones (Maps 2 10 in Appendix 2). Table 7 presents an as-is scenario where future student enrollments are impacted only by forecasted residential births and average survival ratios. This scenario estimates that the overall PK-12 enrollment will peak in 2017/2018 and total K-12 enrollment peaks in The combined high school enrollment is estimated to top out in 2023/2024, after which it will begin to decline to 2,485, 2,435 and 2,429 total students in the following 3 school years of 2024/2025, 2025/2026, 2026/2027, respectively. (*Note - these figures were calculated for each of the 4 scenarios to get a better understanding of longerterm high school enrollment dynamics. These figures are based on current average survival ratios and are not shown in the tables). Table 8 factors in part of the City School District of Albany s longterm strategic plan where it hopes to achieve a 90% graduation rate for all students. Thus, beginning with the freshman class of 2014/2015, table 8 assumes that 90% of all incoming 9th graders will be enrolled as seniors four years later. Freshman students are cycled through the forecast at 94%, 92%, and 90% survival ratios for grades 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Here again, the overall PK-12 total enrollment is expected to peak in school year 2017/2018, and the combined high school enrollment is expected to peak in 2023/2024. In the 3 years following 2023/2024, high school enrollments are estimated to be approximately 2,737, 2,512, and 2,429, respectively. Table 9 presents a scenario where Brighter Choice Boys & Girls Middle Charter Schools close after school year 2014/2015, Green Tech High Charter School closes at the end of the 2015/2016 school year, and Albany Leadership High closes after the 2017/2018 school year. Here, it was assumed that 100% of the current students attending charter schools would enroll at with the Albany City School District upon their closing. Once all current students were cycled through the forecast, a percentage was extracted from the overall population forecast to reflect students who might have attended both charter schools had they remained opened. This figure was then added to the overall forecast for the City School District of Albany. This scenario estimates that overall PK-12 enrollment will peak in school year 2018/2019 where there will be approximately 10,326 total students. Grades 9-12 are again expected to peak in 2023/2024 to 3,171 students. Grades 9-12 are then expected to decline in the 3 subsequent school years to 2,980, 2,861, and 2,718 total students. Table 10 reflects enrollment forecasts that include both the impact of charter school closings and assumes that the district is able to obtain graduation rates of 90%. Here, the total PK-12 enrollment is expected to climax in school year 2018/2019 to approximately 10,736 students, while grades 9-12 are expected to once again peak in school year 2023,/2024 where high school enrollment is expected to top out at approximately 3,824 total students. As with the previous 3 scenarios, high school enrollment is expected to dip to 3,424, 3,058, and 2,861 in the following 3 years.

13 11 TABLE 7: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - 'AS-IS' SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade PK K Total PK-12 8,960 9,023 9,006 9,075 9,059 9,067 9,072 9,053 9,019 8,936 Total K-12 8,405 8,427 8,435 8,495 8,505 8,528 8, ,532 8,464 Total K-5 4,292 4,347 4,359 4,370 4,330 4,281 4,250 4,220 4,180 4,078 Total 6-8 1,808 1,757 1,752 1,790 1,885 1,970 1, ,847 1,864 Total ,305 2,323 2,324 2,335 2,290 2,277 2,336 2,399 2,505 2,522

14 12 TABLE 8: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade PK K Total PK-12 8,960 9,107 9,254 9,486 9,468 9,468 9,467 9,453 9,443 9,379 Total K-12 8,405 8,511 8,683 8,906 8,914 8,929 8, ,956 8,907 Total K-5 4,292 4,347 4,359 4,370 4,330 4,281 4,250 4,220 4,180 4,078 Total 6-8 1,808 1,757 1,752 1,790 1,885 1,970 1, ,847 1,864 Total ,305 2,407 2,572 2,746 2,699 2,678 2,731 2,799 2,929 2,965

15 13 TABLE 9: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade PK K Total PK-12 8,960 9,567 9,923 10,064 10,326 10,322 10,289 10,234 10,164 10,110 Total K-12 8,405 8,971 9,352 9,484 9,772 9,783 9, ,677 9,638 Total K-5 4,292 4,441 4,451 4,458 4,414 4,364 4,332 4,303 4,263 4,162 Total 6-8 1,808 2,040 2,009 2,032 2,137 2,214 2, ,077 2,095 Total ,305 2,490 2,892 2,994 3,221 3,205 3,234 3,265 3,337 3,381

16 14 TABLE 10: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - COMBINED SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade PK K Total PK-12 8,960 9,651 10,170 10,472 10,736 10,722 10,683 10,634 10,587 10,553 Total K-12 8,405 9,055 9,599 9,892 10,182 10,183 10, ,100 10,081 Total K-5 4,292 4,441 4,451 4,458 4,414 4,364 4,332 4,303 4,263 4,162 Total 6-8 1,808 2,040 2,009 2,032 2,137 2,214 2, ,077 2,095 Total ,305 2,574 3,139 3,402 3,631 3,605 3,628 3,665 3,760 3,824

17 15 APPENDIX 1 HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND HISTORICAL CHARTER SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHARTS

18 Historical K-5 Enrollment Public K-5 Charter K Historical 6-8 Enrollment Public 6-8 Charter

19 Historical 9-12 Enrollment Public Charter Historical K-12 Enrollment Public K-12 Charter K

20 18 APPENDIX 2 ENROLLMENT FORECASTS BY ATTENDANCE ZONE

21 19 Map 2: Attendance Zone #1 & Current Student Distribution

22 20 TABLE 11: ATTENDANCE ZONE 1 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

23 21 Map 3: Attendance Zone #2 & Current Student Distribution

24 22 TABLE 12: ATTENDANCE ZONE 2 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

25 23 Map 4: Attendance Zone #3 & Current Student Distribution

26 24 TABLE 13: ATTENDANCE ZONE 3 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

27 25 Map 5: Attendance Zone #4 & Current Student Distribution

28 26 TABLE 14: ATTENDANCE ZONE 4 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

29 27 Map 6: Attendance Zone #5 & Current Student Distribution

30 28 TABLE 15: ATTENDANCE ZONE 5 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

31 29 Map 7: Attendance Zone #6 & Current Student Distribution

32 30 TABLE 16: ATTENDANCE ZONE 6 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

33 31 Map 8: Attendance Zone #7 & Current Student Distribution

34 32 TABLE 17: ATTENDANCE ZONE 7 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

35 33 Map 9: Attendance Zone #8 & Current Student Distribution

36 34 TABLE 18: ATTENDANCE ZONE 8 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total

37 35 Map 10: Attendance Zone #9 & Current Student Distribution

38 36 TABLE 19: ATTENDANCE ZONE 9 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total % GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK Total K Total Total