2016 Ruffalo Noel Levitz, LLC 1

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1 Establishing KPIs and Developing a Comprehensive Situation Analysis Senior Vice President Strategic Enrollment Planning Executive Forum All material in this presentation, including text and images, is the property of. Permission is required to reproduce information. 1 Strategic enrollment planning phases 1. Preparation 2. Identification of key performance indicators 3. Developing a comprehensive situation analysis (data compilation, research, the SEP dashboard, etc.) 4. Strategy identification 5. Action plan development (business plan for each potential strategy) 6. Strategy prioritization (mission-fit, ROI, likelihood of success) 7. Develop quantifiable goals and a funding strategy 8. Execution, evaluation, and modification 2 Session overview Establishing Key Performance Indicators and Aligning Research Data Required to Develop a Comprehensive Situation Analysis Internal and External Research Checklist , LLC 1

2 1Establishing Key Performance Indicators and Aligning Your Research 4 What are key performance indicators (KPIs)? Key Performance Indicators KPIs are commonly-acknowledged measurements that are directly related and critical to the mission and fiscal health of the institution. (Large items such as enrollment or student quality.) Performance Indicators PIs are important measurements that are indirectly related to the mission and support key performance indicators. (Specific items such as applicants or ACT/SAT score averages.) 5 KPIs Drive strategic enrollment management Institution-specific, data-derived measurements that are the foundation for determining the current state of the institution and, when matched with historical comparisons, are relevant for creation of situational (SWOT) analyses and overall strategic planning Reflect effectiveness of broad, cross-departmental cooperation Provide more meaning when compared to those of similar, competing, and/or aspirant institutions Are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve Are supported by and dependent on multiple PIs , LLC 2

3 Performance indicators (PIs) support KPIs Often, PIs can be addressed more readily than KPIs; it takes improvement in multiple PIs to impact any one or more KPIs Nearly all PIs are a function of the work done among two or more functional areas Improvements in KPIs and PIs should be an integral part of any institution s strategic planning regimen Through the planning process, institutions can create a list of PIs to support KPI development 7 The interplay between KPIs and PIs KPI: Enrollment Headcount, FTE, off-site enrollment, online enrollment, transfer students, undergraduate/graduate, full- and part-time, geographic origin of students, retention and graduation rates KPI: Student Quality Average ACT/SAT scores (and 25 th -75 th percentile), average high school GPA, average college GPA, rank in class KPI: Program Quality CCSSE or NSSE results, student outcomes, capstone course results, placement or licensure exam results, average class size, undergraduate and graduate research, alumni survey data KPI: Market Position Program awareness, web site traffic, name recognition, market penetration analyses, institutional image studies, employer survey data KPI: Fiscal Health Gross and net operating revenues, auxiliary income, E&G costs by student sub-groups where specialized programs are provided (academic support), net tuition by academic program, co-curricular program, and student segment (academic ability and need) 8 The institution s mission and data should drive the development and agreement of KPIs Enrollment Program Quality External Experience Engagement Market Demand Marketing Data Student Life Data Types Selectivity Diversity Capacity Analysis True Capacity Persistence, Graduation Pricing and Net Costs , LLC 3

4 KPIs are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve KPI: Full-time Undergraduate Headcount New FY, Transfer, & Re-Admits FT UG Headcount Graduating Seniors Attrition 10 KPIs are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve Example: Full-time Undergraduate Headcount Reputation Selectivity Funnel Rates New FY & Transfer FT UG Headcount Graduating Seniors Demographics Market share Discount rate Attrition 11 KPIs are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve Example: Full-time Undergraduate Headcount Reputation Selectivity Funnel Rates Student: teacher ratio Avg. class size Net. $$ per student Net tuition per student New FY & Transfer FT UG Headcount Graduating Seniors Demographics Market share Discount rate Attrition , LLC 4

5 Funnel Rates KPIs are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve Reputation Selectivity Example: Full-time Undergraduate Headcount Student: teacher ratio Avg. class size Net. $$ per student Net tuition per student New FY & Transfer FT UG Headcount Graduating Seniors Demographics Market share Discount rate Attrition First-year, So, Jr., Sr. rates Minority, high revenue, athletes, etc. 13 KPIs are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time to evolve Example KPI: Full-time Undergraduate Headcount Reputation Selectivity Funnel Rates Student: teacher ratio Avg. class size Overall satisfaction Net. $$ per student Net tuition per student Job placement rate NSSE scores New FY & Transfer FT UG Headcount Graduating Seniors Demographics Market share Discount rate Attrition First year, So, Jr. Sr. Rates 4,5,6 yr. grad. rates Placement rate: Grad & Prof. Sch. Student loan debt Minority, High revenue, Athletes, etc. 14 Defining the metric Table One: Summary of Enrollment Key Performance Indicator s PIs Enrollment PIs Five-year mean Metric/Empirical Definition Inquiries Total number Applicants Total number Acceptance rate Percent admitted full-time, first-time students Undergraduate freshmen Total number of first-time, full-time freshmen cohort Undergraduate Total number headcount Undergraduate FTE Total number of units attempted divided by 15 Undergraduate FTE for two-year programs New transfers Out-of-state (%) International (%) Total number of units attempted divided by 15 enrolled in two-year programs Total number of students coming from another institution Percent of student body who are not state residents Percent of student body coming from other countries , LLC 5

6 KPIs and PIs should be converted to dashboards (See Chapter 8 of the SEP book, 2 nd edition) 16 Final thoughts on KPIs Typically, KPIs are identified early in the process, especially if the institution has a clear sense of its desired direction or has externally mandated performance metrics Operationalizing of some KPIs may occur later in the process and arise from data collection and the situation analysis Worry less about the distinction between KPIs and PIs than about identifying measures that matter The real key is building a robust SEP dashboard to inform strategy development and business planning, and using that dashboard to monitor and evaluate strategy implementation and outcomes; if you do that, the KPIs and PIs will take care of themselves 17 Working session Task One: KPI Identification Sketch out the existing key performance indicators (KPIs) for your institution. Recall that KPIs are measures that determine the success or failure of the institution in fulfilling its mission and vision. As you have time, consider performance indicators (PIs) which contribute to each KPI , LLC 6

7 2Data Required to Develop a Comprehensive Situation Analysis 19 Strategic enrollment planning phases 1. Preparation 2. Identification of key performance indicators 3. Developing a comprehensive situation analysis (data compilation, research, the SEP dashboard, etc.) 4. Strategy identification 5. Action plan development (business plan for each potential strategy) 6. Strategy prioritization (mission-fit, ROI, likelihood of success) 7. Develop quantifiable goals and a funding strategy 8. Execution, evaluation, and modification 20 Definition of Situation Analysis A systematic collection and evaluation of past and present data, aimed at identification of internal and external forces that may influence the institutional performance and choice of strategies. In addition it will allow a comprehensive assessment of the organization s current and future strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats , LLC 7

8 Data drives situation analysis and ultimately strategy development Undergrad Blended Graduate Data Strategies Marketing Technology 22 Data readiness, availability, exploration 23 What do you know? What do you wish you knew? 2016, LLC 8

9 Each planning process will vary because each institution s planning situation is different What plans/actions exist What data is available The SEP process is highly customized The institutional objectives What are critical timelines Unique Strategic Plan What level of commitment Quality of the existing work 25 Creating an information-driven culture Make decisions based on information analysis Create relevant reports Comprehensive information system and database 26 Four macro data will be required Environmental data Market demand data Competitor data Institutional strength data , LLC 9

10 Three over-arching aspects of data you must know 28 Environmental Data 29 Projected change in the number of high school graduates, to Severe decline Moderate decrease Minimal change Moderate increase Large increase 2014 Noel-Levitz, LLC Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, Based Primarily on Data From WICHE , LLC 10

11 Projected change in the number of Caucasian high school graduates, to Severe decline Moderate decrease Minimal change Moderate increase Large increase 2014 Noel-Levitz, LLC Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, Based Primarily on Data From WICHE 31 Understanding Your Competition 32 Develop precise measures of market share , LLC 11

12 Sample statewide market share analysis 50% Out-of-state Four-year Publics Two-year Publics Privates 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sample part-time student market penetration analysis 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Four-year Public Four-year Private Lost admits by type of institution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Specialized Associates Public four- Public four- Public four- Private four- Private four- Private four- schools colleges year Small year Medium year Large year Small year Medium year Large Typical Student Sample U Lost Admits , LLC 12

13 IPEDS is a rich source of competitor data ( 37 Awareness of our school vs. competition 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% In-state Florida Georgia Alabama S. Carolina Our school Milton Coll Dover U Carter U Williams U 38 Competitor analysis with cost overlay (lost admits) Tuition and fees (or net charges) N=5 N=10 N=5 Selectivity N=35 N=4 N=14 N= , LLC 13

14 How price sensitive are your students vs. your competitors? Students at these schools show substantial price elasticity. 40 Understanding Market Demand 41 An overview of top 10 student-planned educational majors: , LLC 14

15 An overview of bottom 10 student-planned educational majors: Occupations with the largest numerical growth requiring at least a BA: Occupation # of New Jobs % Change 2014 Median Wage Registered nurses 439,300 16% $66,640 Software developers, applications or systems software 186,600 17% $97,990 General and operations managers 147,000 6% $102,750 Accountants and auditors 142,400 11% $65,940 Computer systems analysts 118,600 21% $82,710 Management analysts 103,400 14% $80,880 Market research analysts and marketing specialists 92,300 19% $61,290 Medical and health services managers 56,300 17% $92,810 Computer and information systems managers 53,700 15% $127,640 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition, on the Internet at 44 Occupations with the largest percentage growth requiring at least a BA: Occupation % Change # of New Jobs 2014 Median Wage Operations research analysts 27,600 30% $76,660 Cartographers and photogrammetrists 3,600 29% $60,930 Biomedical engineers 5,100 23% $86,950 Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors 21,200 22% $39,270 Athletic trainers 5,400 21% $43,370 Computer systems analysts 118,600 21% $82,710 Market research analysts and marketing specialists 92,300 19% $61,290 Information security analysts 14,800 18% $88,890 Software developers, applications or systems software 186,600 17% $97,990 Medical and health services managers 56,300 17% $92,810 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition, on the Internet at , LLC 15

16 Sample University s out-of-state market: All students with a B+ and above GPA States Majors OH IN IL MD VA NJ PA TN WV MO TX Medical Physician 11,144 5,733 11,739 4,596 6,790 7,782 11,866 6,587 2,190 5,871 27,502 Nursing/Health Care 7,906 4,362 7,760 3,393 4,393 3,741 7,937 4,985 1,548 3,300 20,128 Lawyer/Legal Services 5,173 2,417 6,538 3,091 3,802 5,217 6,633 2, ,912 13,203 Engineering (General) 4,171 2,034 4,476 2,413 2,735 3,597 4,943 1, ,327 11,721 Law Enforcement/ Criminal Justice 2,977 1,474 3,868 1,839 2,081 2,916 4,106 1, ,279 8,324 Business Owner/ Entrepreneur 3,151 1,430 3,275 1,916 2,350 2,445 4,128 1, ,699 8,476 Architecture 3,245 1,497 3,744 1,501 2,096 2,720 3,674 1, ,626 8,282 Culinary/Chef 2,992 1,245 3,672 1,720 2,040 2,476 3,545 1, ,730 7,187 Athletics/Coaching 2,875 1,319 3,112 1,324 1,732 1,815 3,297 1, ,426 7,375 Engineering (Mechanical) 2,774 1,417 2,639 1,200 1,791 1,607 2,811 1, ,103 7,447 Physical Therapy 3,382 1,657 2, ,586 1,470 3,784 1, ,290 3,855 Child Care/Development 2,448 1,127 2,802 1,240 1,474 1,631 3,166 1, ,498 5,959 Sports Medicine 3,286 1,328 2,343 1,292 1,893 1,523 3,196 1, ,236 4,614 Veterinary Medicine 2,350 1,330 2, ,483 1,004 2,264 1, ,144 5,257 Military Science 2, ,179 1,106 1,809 1,671 2,456 1, ,114 4,142 Engineering (Electrical) 1, ,079 1,254 1,446 1,362 2,106 1, ,767 Pharmacy 2,164 1,211 2, ,054 1,286 2,567 1, ,443 Photography/Video/Film 1,821 1,041 2, ,360 1,417 2, ,793 Graphic Arts/Design 1, , ,153 1,504 2, ,598 Fashion Merchandising 1, ,758 1,047 1,239 1,508 1, , Online Report Card: Tracking Online Education in the United States Copyright 2016 by Babson Survey Research Group, Pearson, and Quahog Research Group, LLC 47 Understanding Your Institutional Strength , LLC 16

17 Understanding your institutional strength 49 The institution Student satisfaction and engagement metrics Faculty/staff satisfaction and alignment with student expectations Alumni satisfaction/outcomes Student attrition research 50 Current student research reveals broad institutional issues Overall Satisfaction Overall, met Rate overall Would enroll here Tuition a expectations? satisfaction again worthwhile investment Our students Students at other schools , LLC 17

18 and specific institutional challenges 1. I am able to register for classes I need with few conflicts. 2. Tuition paid is a worthwhile investment. 3. There is a good variety of courses provided on this campus. 4. The campus is safe and secure for all students. 5. Faculty are fair and unbiased in their treatment of individual students. 6. Adequate financial aid is available for most students. 52 Alumni research can inform your institutional strategy 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent of Alumni Master's degree Doctoral degree Other graduate degree 53 Understanding how satisfied students are Institutional Challenges Very Important Institutional Strengths Very Dissatisfied Very Satisfied Very Unimportant , LLC 18

19 3Internal and External Checklist 55 Internal research elements Enrollment funnel conversion by population Academic profile Characteristics of entering class Student academic interest as they enter Flows into academic majors and courses Number of students who progress from entering cohorts to graduation Academic program capacity and demand Financial aid research Student satisfaction and engagement research Alumni satisfaction research Communications data Web analytics Data directly linked to your priorities and KPIs 56 Example Regional funnel management FTIC Funnels by Region: Fall 2016 Stage / Region County 1 County 2 County 3 Inqs. Conv. Rate Apps. Accept Rate Admits Deps. Yield Rate Enroll County 4 County 5 Rest of State Out of State Intnl , LLC 19

20 Example Academic and co-curricular demand Academic or Co-Curricular Program Demand Academic Student Subpop Subpop Program Interest 1 2 African American Studies English Psychology Biology Chemistry Or could be by co-curricular interest Subpop 3 Subpop 4 Rest of State Out of State Intnl 58 Example Retention cohort First-time Freshmen Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Cohort Size No. Retained after 1 semester % Retained after 1 semester 89.9% 88.1% 88.8% 83.7% 83.9% 85.7% 89.8% 91.6% No. Returning as Sophomores Retention rate frosh-to-soph 75.5% 69.9% 74.5% 70.9% 75.2% 67.4% 75.1% 79.6% No. Returning as juniors Retention rate frosh-to-jnr 62.3% 63.6% 67.1% 61.7% 68.6% 61.1% 62.1% (after 2 years) Retention between sophomore 82.5% 91.0% 90.0% 87.0% 91.3% 90.7% 82.7% and junior year No. Returning as seniors Retention rate frosh-to- snr 62.3% 62.2% 63.4% 58.9% 66.4% 58.9% (after 3 years) Retention between junior and 100% 97.8% 94.4% 95.4% 96.8% 96.3% senior year No. Graduated after 4 yrs % Graduated after 4 years 42.8% 41.3% 48.4% 41.8% 53.3% No. Graduated after 5 years % Graduated after 5 years 54.1% 54.5% 56.5% 53.9% No. Graduated after 6 years % Graduated after 6 years 57.9% 55.9% 56.5% 59 External research elements Demographic trends Number of students expressing specific major interest, including by test score range Workforce demand Lost inquiry study Lost admit study Competition analysis Market demand analysis Price sensitivity study FASFA application competition report Special population changes State-specific data Information on possible disruptive innovations , LLC 20

21 Working session Task Two: Research Planning Review the document: Typical High-Priority Research Checklist. Identify which of these research elements are currently available at your institution. Identify which should be a high priority for compiling after your return to campus. 61 Questions and discussion , LLC 21