ANALYSIS OF ACADEMIC PIPELINE: THREE-YEAR OUTCOMES FALL 2010 COHORT

Transcription

1 ANALYSIS OF ACADEMIC PIPELINE: THREE-YEAR OUTCOMES FALL 2010 COHORT Wendy Lin Amir Hayat December, 2015 IR# 15108

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 1 Introduction... 3 Methodology... 4 Findings... 5 Three-year Outcomes... 5 Three-Year Outcomes by Student Characteristics... 6 Three-Year Outcomes by Level of College Readiness... 7 Three-Year Outcomes by Ivy Tech Region... 8 Leavers by Last Term Enrolled... 9 Leavers by Academic Progress... 9 Leave Rates by Student Characteristics Survival Analysis Summary Implications/Recommendations References Appendix A Descriptive Statistics Appendix B Survival Analysis Results... 34

3 Executive Summary This report analyzes students in Ivy Tech Community College s 2010 ATD cohort, which includes all students whose first term of enrollment at Ivy Tech was the fall 2010 semester. Ivy Tech s first-time to college, full- and part-time, inbound transfer, degree-seeking students from the summer and fall terms of 2010 were followed for three years from their college start (n=25,180): Greater than 70 percent of all students in the cohort left Ivy Tech within three years without earning a credential, with most students leaving within the first two semester and having earned less than 15 credit hours. A little more than a third of leavers completed Writing and Reading remediation. About a quarter of leavers completed college-level English while less than a fifth completed college-level Math course at Ivy Tech. Within three years, o Earned Ivy Tech credential: 2,022 (8.0 percent) o Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech at the end of three years: 5,439 (21.6 percent) o Did not earn Ivy Tech credential, transferred: 3,986 (15.8 percent) o Did not earn Ivy Tech credential, did not transfer: 13,733 (54.5 percent) o Total Leavers (including transfers): 17,719 (70.4 percent) More than half (74.7 percent) of the students in the cohort tested into remediation in at least one subject area; while 20.1 percent tested into remediation in all three. Approximately one in five (i.e., 21.6 percent) were college-ready in all three areas. Students who were college-ready in all subject areas had a higher graduation rate (16.5 percent) and transfer-out rate (25.7 percent) compared to the overall cohort. A little more than a third did not graduate nor were they enrolled in any institutions. Students who required remediation in all subject areas were the least successful, with graduation rate of 2.1 percent and a leave rate of 77.9 percent. Half of all students who successfully completed the remedial course left Ivy Tech without completing the gateway course. Half of all students who tested program ready successfully completed the gateway course. Only 8.0 percent of students earned a credential in three years, although the percentage of students earning a credential was higher in students who tested college-ready than those who tested remedial. Leavers had poor academic performance at Ivy Tech. The majority of leavers earned a cumulative Ivy Tech GPA below 2.0. Leave rates were the highest among students with the following characteristics (at first term at Ivy Tech): o Male o Black, non-hispanic o Age 24 and under at first term at Ivy Tech o Enrolled in the School of Liberal Arts and Sciences at first term at Ivy Tech o Pell-eligible at first term at Ivy Tech o New, first-time to Ivy Tech Course outcomes during the first semester at Ivy Tech are important predictors for later success. Students who do not pass any of their first semester courses have a hazard of leaving without a credential that is about 85% higher than students who pass all of their first semester courses at Ivy Tech. Moreover, as the percentage of passed courses IR # Page 1

4 increases, the gap between those who passed all of their courses and those who passed some of their courses diminishes. Completing Math and English gateway courses are associated with a large reduction in the hazard of leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential: the hazard of leaving is about 58% and 51% lower, respectively, for completers, compared to non-completers. IR # Page 2

5 ANALYSIS OF ACADEMIC PIPELINE: THREE-YEAR OUTCOMES FALL 2010 COHORT Introduction Indiana has adopted the Lumina Foundation Big Goal, which seeks to increase the percentage of the adult population with high-quality degrees, certificates, and other credentials to 60 percent by Past studies have shown Ivy Tech has an on-time completion rate below five percent for first-time, full-time, resident students. One major obstacle to degree attainment for Ivy Tech students is closing the gap between remediation and college-readiness, as many of our students are placed into remediation when they begin college. According to the Remediation: Higher Education Bridge to Nowhere report by the Complete College America, less than one in 10 community-college students who required remediation completed an associate degree within three years. This pattern is also evident in Ivy Tech students, who frequently leave early in their academic career and stop-out frequently throughout their academic career, making on-time completion extremely difficult. The Pipeline Report follows a single cohort for three years through the academic pipeline. Figure 1 depicts the academic pipeline for these students. Students entering Ivy Tech for the first time in fall of 2010 were studied, with remedial need determined through a variety of assessment options. For the purpose of this study, Students who did not complete or were no longer enrolled at Ivy Tech were categorized as leavers. Students who transferred to another institution are categorized as leavers if they did not graduate at Ivy Tech prior to transferring. The goals of the Pipeline Report are: Figure 1. Academic Pipeline for Ivy Tech Students To identify various leakage points throughout the academic pipeline to find out where and when students leave To identify characteristics of students who leave To identify, where possible, key indicators and risk factors associated with leaving using statistical models Ultimately, the results from this report will help provide a more comprehensive look at what occurs throughout a student s academic career and identify intervention points to facilitate student success. IR # Page 3

6 Methodology The cohort in this study included all degree-seeking students who were new to Ivy Tech in the fall 2010 semester, including both full-time and part-time students, as well as first time in college and inbound transfer students (n=25,180). The sample excluded high school students, guest students, and students from the apprenticeship program. Student demographic information, enrollment characteristics, course work information and degree information at Ivy Tech were extracted from a database maintained by Ivy Tech. Each student s demographics and enrollment characteristics such as enrollment intensity (i.e., full- versus part-time) and major, as well as the student s home region, were captured when the student first started at the college. Subsequent enrollment and external degree information were provided by the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and Indiana Commission for Higher Education (ICHE). This report defines transfer status as any enrollment activity at an institution that is not Ivy Tech. Each student is being counted once, regardless of whether the student attended multiple institutions. Completion in this report is defined as obtaining either a credential (i.e., CT or TC) or an associate degree at any time within the three-year time span. Completion is not restricted by the 150 percent completion time frame. This allows our completion counts to include more students, particularly those that earned certificates. A leaver is characterized as a student who did not earn an Ivy Tech credential and was not enrolled at Ivy Tech in either the fall 2012 or spring 2013 semesters. The research timeframe is between the student s first term at Ivy Tech (i.e., fall 2010) and the end of the three-year period (i.e., spring semester of 2013). This report does not examine any enrollment activity that falls outside this timeframe. IR # Page 4

7 Findings Three-year Outcomes Figure 2. Three-year Outcomes for Fall 2010 First-time and Inbound Transfer Students Table 1. Three-year Outcomes for Fall 2010 First-time and Inbound Transfer Students # Students % Total Earned Credential 2, % Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech * 5, % Leavers Did not earn an Ivy Tech 3, % Credential, Transferred Did not earn an Ivy Tech 13, % Credential, Did not Transfer (i.e., Not Enrolled Anywhere) Total Leavers 17, % Cohort Total 25, % * Enrolled at Ivy Tech in fall, 2012 or spring, 2013 IR # Page 5

8 Figure 2 and Table 1 show the three-year outcomes for the study cohort. Within three-years, approximately eight percent completed a degree or a certificate at Ivy Tech, while 21.6 percent were still enrolled at Ivy Tech at the end of the three-year period. By contrast, 15.8 percent transferred without earning an Ivy Tech credential while 54.5 percent did not earn a credential and did not transfer, making a combined leave rate of 70.4 percent. Three-Year Outcomes by Student Characteristics Table 9-A and 10-A in the appendix present three-year outcomes broken out by student characteristics. As shown, completion rates were highest for students with the following characteristics: Enrolled in School of Nursing (34.8 percent) Earned cumulative GPA of 3 to 3.99 (23.6 percent) Age 50 to 59 (15.9 percent) Inbound transfer (13.8 percent) The highest percentage of students who are still enrolled at the end of the three-year period had the following characteristics: Earned 30 cumulative credit hours or more at Ivy Tech Hispanic (25.7 percent) Age 35 to 39 (25.4 percent) or 40 to 49 (25.2 percent) Enrolled in School of Fine Arts and Design (25.4 percent) College Ready in Math (25.0 percent) Not Pell eligible (24.9 percent) The highest percentage of students who transferred without earning an Ivy Tech credential had the following characteristics: Enrolled in School of Applied Sciences and Engineering (25.4 percent) or School of Liberal Arts and Sciences (22.3 percent) Inbound transfer (25.1 percent) Earned 15 to 29.9 (21.5 percent) or 30 to 44.9 (21.2 percent) cumulative credit hours at Ivy Tech Did not apply for financial aid (20.9 percent) The highest percentage of students who left the education system altogether (i.e., did not earn Ivy Tech credential and did not transfer) had the following characteristics: Earned cumulative GPA of 0 to 1.99 (74.6 percent) Earned 0 (86.7 percent) or 0.1 to 14.9 (74.6 percent) cumulative credit hours at Ivy Tech Enrolled in School of Technology (64.0 percent) Black, non-hispanic (61.2 percent) Age 20 to 24 (57.0 percent) Male 58.6 percent Note: the student s enrollment and demographic characteristics pertained to the student s first term at Ivy Tech. IR # Page 6

9 Figure 3. Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Three-year Outcomes by Level of College Readiness Three-Year Outcomes by Level of College Readiness More than half (74.7 percent) of the students in the cohort tested into remediation in at least one subject area; while 20.1 percent tested into remediation in all three areas. Approximately one in five (21.6 percent) were college-ready in all three areas. When examining three-year outcomes by level of college readiness (see Figure 3), students who were college-ready in all subject areas were the most successful, showing a much higher graduation rate and a much lower leave rate compared to other subgroups. The reverse is true for those who tested into remediation in all three areas these students have the lowest graduation rate and the highest leave rate. Students who were college-ready in all subject areas were also more likely to transfer (25.7 percent). Subtle differences can be found when comparing students who required remediation in only one subject area. Those who tested only into remedial writing displayed a higher graduation rate than students who tested only into math or reading (i.e., by approximately two to four percentage points), while leave rates are the highest among students who tested into remedial math. Success rates decreased for students IR # Page 7

10 needing remediation in two or more areas compared to their peers with either one remedial need or no remedial needs. As shown in figure 3, a little less than a fifth of leavers completed math remediation at Ivy Tech, while approximately 80 percent of the leavers did not. About a third of leavers completed writing and reading remediation, a quarter completed college-level English while only a very insignificant percentage completed college-level math course at Ivy Tech. Results also indicated that 68.1 percent of students who were still enrolled at Ivy Tech completed remedial math, while 31.9 percent were still pending. Similarly, approximately 26.7 percent were pending a gateway English course while 45.1 percent were pending gateway Math. Figure 4. Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Three-year Outcomes by Ivy Tech Region Three-Year Outcomes by Ivy Tech Region Figure 4 shows three-year outcomes broken out by Ivy Tech region. Regions with the highest six-year success rates are Southeast (52.6 percent), Northwest (51.0 percent) and Bloomington (50.8 percent). IR # Page 8

11 Approximately one quarter of students from the Richmond and Columbus regions, respectively, completed at Ivy Tech and did not transfer. The Bloomington and Central Indiana regions had the highest proportion of students transferring without completing an Ivy Tech credential, whereas Southeast had the highest proportion of students transferring with an Ivy Tech credential. Consistent with findings from past transfer studies (Lin, 2014), a considerably large proportion of students transferred before completing at Ivy Tech. This is the most apparent in the Bloomington (24.7 percent), Northwest (18.8 percent) and Central Indiana regions (18.5 percent). Leavers by Last Term Enrolled 8,000 6,000 5,513 5,901 # of Students 4,000 2,000 2,399 2, Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Summer 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Summer 2012 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Last Term Enrolled at Ivy Tech Figure 5 Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Last Term Enrolled at Ivy Tech Figure 5 shows the student s last term enrolled at Ivy Tech before leaving the college. Nearly two-thirds of students left after attending the first and second semester at Ivy Tech, followed by a small peak of leavers in the following fall and spring semesters. Leaver counts diminished in the last two semesters. Of note, this does not include students who stop-out for some time and then return to Ivy Tech within the research timeframe. Leavers by Academic Progress As shown in Figure 6, leavers seemed to perform poorly overall compared to graduates or students who are still enrolled, as the majority of leavers earned a cumulative Ivy Tech GPA below 2.0. This may be due to academic and financial aid restrictions for students with GPAs below this level. Most leavers also left Ivy Tech with 15 credit hours or less (see Figure 7). This is consistent with findings earlier in the study indicating that leavers tend to exit very early during the three-year period. The study also finds a notable number of leavers earning GPA of 3 to 3.99 (n= 2,646), and 1,855 earning 30 credit hours or more. These groups of students may be good candidates for outreach purposes or initiatives such as the reverse transfer. IR # Page 9

12 80% 60% 68.7% Leavers Degree-Earners Still Enrolled 49.1% # of Students 40% 20% 22.6% 18.0% 26.6% 41.5% 14.9% 33.9% 0% 4.8% 4.5% 0.2% 0 to to to Cumulative Ivy Tech GPA 1.9% Figure 6 Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Cumulative GPA Earned at Ivy Tech for Leavers and Non-Leavers 80% 60% Leavers Degree-Earners Still Enrolled 52.0% 61.4% # of Students 40% 20% 0% 26.6% 27.7% 24.4% 24.9% 22.0% 13.4% 10.2% 9.9% 7.7% 7.5% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% to to to to 59.9 >=60.0 Cumulative Ivy Tech Credits Earned Figure 7 Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Cumulative Credit Hours Earned for Leavers and Non- Leavers IR # Page 10

13 100% 86.7% 89.1% 88.2% 92.9% 92.3% 88.2% 90.0% 75% 73.3% 68.1% 54.9% # of Students 50% 25% 13.4% 25.6% 19.3% 30.6% 36.8% 0% Completed Gateway Math Course Completed Gateway English Course Completed Remedial Math Completed Remedial Writing Completed Remedial Reading Academic Progress Leavers Degree-Earners Still Enrolled Figure 8 Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Academic Progress for Leavers and Non-Leavers Note: there are certain CT/TC programs that do not require Math or English. IR # Page 11

14 Leave Rates by Student Characteristics 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% All Ivy Tech Students 70.4% 15 to % 20 to % 25 to % Age Group 30 to to % 68.8% 40 to % 50 to % 60 and over 69.7% Gender Female Male 67.3% 74.6% African American 81.1% Ethnicity Caucasian Hispanic 67.9% 66.8% Other Minority 72.4% School of Applied Sciences and Engineering 68.4% School of Business 69.4% School of Education 69.2% School of Fine Arts and Design 65.8% Divison School of Health Sciences School of Liberal Arts and Sciences 68.7% 73.9% School of Nursing 52.2% School of Public and Social Services 70.9% School of Technology 72.3% Pell Eligibility Undecided Pell Eligible Not Pell Eligible Did Not Apply for Aid 63.0% 68.4% 68.9% 72.9% Overall Ivy Tech Leave Rate: 70.4% Student Populatio n New First Time Transfer 71.2% 67.4% Figure 9 Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Rate at which Students Leave Ivy Tech by Student and Enrollment Characteristics. IR # Page 12

15 Figure 9 illustrates rates at which students leave Ivy Tech by demographic and enrollment characteristics, with the overall leave rate (70.4 percent) marked as a reference line. Leave rates were the highest among students with the following characteristics: Male Black, non-hispanic Age 24 and under at first term at Ivy Tech Enrolled in the School of Liberal Arts and Sciences at first term at Ivy Tech Pell-eligible at first term at Ivy Tech New, first-time to Ivy Tech In contrast, leave rates were the lowest for students who were enrolled in the School of Nursing at their first term at Ivy Tech, age 35 or older, or who were not Pell-eligible during their first term at Ivy Tech. IR # Page 13

16 Figure 10. Three-year Outcomes for Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students by Completion of Math Requirements. IR # Page 14

17 Figure 11 Three-year Outcomes for Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students by Completion of Writing Requirements. IR # Page 15

18 Figure 12 Three-year Outcomes for Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students by Completion of Reading Requirements. IR # Page 16

19 Figures 10 to 12 illustrate the academic pipeline from start to finish broken out by completion of Math, Reading and Writing requirements. Key highlights from the findings include, More students tested into Math remediation (71.9 percent) than Reading (27.1 percent) or Writing remediation (33.5 percent). Leakage occurred along the academic pipeline for all students. For students requiring remediation, half of the students who passed the remedial course did not pass the gateway course. Students who tested at college-level for a subject were more likely to complete the college-level course in that subject than students who tested into a remedial course. However, even in the college-ready group, only half completed the college-level course. Finally, only a small percentage of students under either pathway (i.e., college-ready or remedial) earned a credential in three years, although the percentage of students earning a credential was higher for students who tested college-ready than those who tested remedial. It is important to note that in this context, earning a credential includes both associate degree and certificates. Students who earned multiple credentials are only counted once. Survival Analysis Summary Using survival analysis, we investigated the relationship between key student characteristics and a student leaving Ivy Tech without receiving a credential within three years of matriculation. Survival analysis is used to investigate the time until an event takes place. We found several statistically significant factors associated with leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential. In addition to the factors identified below, our model also incorporated the following student characteristics: gender, ethnicity, testing into a writing remedial course, student s division of major, student s region, and the type of credential (Associates degree versus a certificate) that the student pursued. Factors associated with a greater likelihood of leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential within 3 years: Being Pell eligible, compared to applying for financial aid and not being Pell eligible o There are no significant differences between Pell eligible students and those who did not apply for financial aid. Students who fail or withdraw from at least one course during their first semester Factors associated with a lower likelihood of leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential within 3 years: Transferring into Ivy Tech, rather than being a first time student at Ivy Tech The more times that a student changes his major Being 25 years old or older, compared to younger students Testing into a math remedial course Testing into a reading remedial course Completing a Math gateway course Completing the English gateway course Being a part time student during the first semester IR # Page 17

20 Course outcomes during the first semester at Ivy Tech are important predictors for later success. Students who do not pass any of their first semester courses have a hazard of leaving without a credential that is about 85% higher than students who pass all of their first semester courses at Ivy Tech. Moreover, as the percentage of passed courses increases, the gap between those who passed all of their courses and those who passed some of their courses diminishes 1. Survival probability across time: completers and non-completers of a Math gateway course 1 More detailed survival analysis results are found in the Appendix. IR # Page 18

21 Survival probability across time: completers and non-completers of the English gateway course As seen above, completing Math and English gateway courses are associated with a large reduction in the hazard of leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential: the hazard of leaving is about 58% and 51% lower, respectively, for completers, compared to non-completers. Implications/Recommendations A considerable proportion of students (over 50 percent) in the cohort were lost in the educational system as they did not transfer, complete a credential nor were they found to be enrolled at any school by the end of the six-year period. Consistent with past findings, students tend to leave very early in their academic career, with most leaving with only 15 credit hours earned or less, indicating the need for interventions early in the students academic careers. In addition, examining factors which may have prompted students to exit early may provide critical guidance to retention strategies. Evaluation of Ivy Advising and Blackboard data could help provide evidence of the usefulness of such methods to track student s performance in class to help reduce early drop-out rates. An analysis of three-year outcomes for each remedial subject showed a rapid leak in the pipeline for all students. Half of all students who completed remedial coursework left Ivy Tech without completing the gateway course, and only half of all students who were college-ready in all three subject areas successfully completed the gateway course. While persistence to degree is higher for those entering college-ready, it is clear that other factors play important role in retention and success than just testing out of remediation. Finally, about one in five (21.6 percent) of the students in this study were still actively enrolled at Ivy Tech at the end of the three-year period, suggesting a traditional three-year measure of success may cover IR # Page 19

22 a time period that is too short to capture sufficiently the success of community college students. In fact, the average time to completion for Ivy Tech students is 16 semesters (5 years and 1 semester) from the time of first enrollment. IPEDS began collecting an 8-year graduation rate in the year, which will provide us an opportunity to receive peer comparison data for this period of time. The college has implemented a number of strategies since 2010 to improve remediation success, including implementing the co-requisite model for remedial coursework, using the Accuplacer diagnostic assessment, and implementing math pathways, among the many other retention efforts that are underway. Improvements in completion rates due to these initiatives are not reflected in this current cohort analysis. The full impact of these initiatives will not be fully evident until later cohorts. IR # Page 20

23 References Complete College America (2012). Remediation: Higher Education's Bridge to Nowhere. Available from Lin, W. & Jones, M. (2014). Analysis of Academic Pipeline: Three-Year Outcomes. Fall 2009 Cohort. Smith, E., Holcombe, W. (2008). Traversing the Academic Pipeline. Available from IR # Page 21

24 Appendix A Descriptive Statistics Table 2-A Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Three-year Outcomes by Student Characteristics by number of students Did Not Earn Ivy Did Not Earn Ivy Earned Ivy Tech Still Enrolled at Ivy Student Characteristics* Tech Credential, Tech Credential, Total Leavers Total in Cohort Credential Tech Transferred Did not Transfer All Students 2,022 5,439 3,986 13,733 17,719 25,180 Age Group 15 to ,986 1,576 4,154 5,730 8, to ,322 1,359 4,206 5,565 7, to ,948 2,387 3, to ,233 1,490 2, to , to ,011 1,165 1, to and Over Not Reported Gender Female 1,228 3,459 2,264 7,362 9,626 14,313 Male 776 1,945 1,702 6,273 7,975 10,696 Not Reported Ethnicity African American ,512 3,328 4,103 Caucasian 1,697 4,130 2,689 9,639 12,328 18,155 Hispanic Other Minority ,081 1,427 1,970 Not Reported Division School of Applied Sciences and Engineering School of Business ,302 2,909 4,189 School of Education ,029 1,487 School of Fine Arts and Design School of Health Sciences ,161 1,392 2,025 School of Liberal Arts and Sciences 251 1,126 1,176 2,715 3,891 5,268 IR # Page 22

25 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Total in Cohort School of Nursing School of Public and Social ,793 2,200 3,105 Services School of Technology ,389 1,569 2,170 Undecided 426 1, ,146 4,134 6,040 Not Reported Major Accounting Accounting - Distance Advanced Manufacturing Agriculture Automotive Electrical/Electron Automotive Technology Aviation Biotechnology Bookkeeper Brakes and Suspension Building Construction Mgmt Business Admin-Distance Business Administration ,039 1,326 1,856 Chemical Technology Community Emergency Prep Computer Info Systems- Distance Computer Information Systems Computer Information Tech Construction Technician Construction Technology Criminal Justice ,057 Criminal Justice-Distance Database Dental Assisting Dental Hygiene Design Technology Design Technology-Distance Early Childhood Education IR # Page 23

26 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer IR # Page 24 Total Leavers Total in Cohort Early Childhood Educ- Distance Education Electrical Engineering Technology Electrocardiography Technician Electronics and Computer Tech Engine Performance Engineering Technology Fine Arts Fundamental Payroll General Liberal Studies General Studies ,864 2,673 3,588 General Studies-Distance Health Care Support Health Information Technology Heating/Cooling Homeland Security/Emergency Mg Hospitality Administration Human Resources Management Human Services Human Services-Distance Imaging Sciences Industrial Electrician Industrial Technology Information Security Interior Design Java Programming Kinesiology Lib Arts Liberal Arts ,039 Library Technical Asst Distanc Logistics Management Machine Tool

27 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer IR # Page 25 Total Leavers Total in Cohort Machine Tool Technology Manufactng Prod&Oper Distance Manufacturing Operations Manufacturing/Industrial Tech Mechanical Engineering Tech Medical Assisting Medical Laboratory Technology Microsoft Cert Applicatn Specl Mortuary Sciences Network Administration Nursing Office Administration Office Administration Distance Ophthalmic Technology Paralegal Paralegal Studies-Distance Paramedic Science Patient Care PC Support and Administration Pharmacy Technician Phlebotomy Technician Physical Therapy Assisting Power Train Practical Nursing Pre-Engineering Professional Communication Public Safety Radiation Therapy Radiologic Technology Respiratory Care Routing and Switching Surgical Technology Sustainable Energy Systems Security

28 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Total in Cohort Therapeutic Massage Undeclared 426 1, ,146 4,134 6,040 Visual Communication Visual Programming Web Management Welding Pell Eligibility Pell Eligible 1,140 3,509 2,416 10,066 12,482 17,131 Not Pell Eligible 636 1, ,308 3,288 5,222 Did Not Apply for Aid ,359 1,949 2,827 Student Population Description New First Time 1,293 4,447 2,663 11,498 14,161 19,901 Transfer ,323 2,235 3,558 5,279 Cumulative Hours Earned ,188 1,364 1, to ,440 7,777 9,217 9, to ,445 1,256 3,064 4,320 5, to , ,327 3, to , ,083 >=60.0 1, ,115 Not reported GPA Range 0 to ,228 1,294 7,406 8,700 9,932 2 to ,257 1,068 2,121 3,189 5,983 3 to ,389 1,846 1,141 1,505 2,646 5, ,051 Not reported ,027 2,327 2,333 College Preparedness Math Remedial Only 1,289 3,240 2,754 9,112 11,866 16,395 College Ready in Math 733 2,199 1,232 4,621 5,853 8,785 Reading Remedial Only 2,015 5,419 3,966 13,673 17,639 25,073 College Ready in Reading IR # Page 26

29 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Total in Cohort Writing Remedial Only 1,996 5,383 3,946 13,598 17,544 24,923 College Ready in Writing Math and Writing Remedial 1,907 4,838 3,703 11,950 15,653 22,398 Math and Reading Remedial 1,973 5,134 3,821 12,905 16,726 23,833 Writing and Reading Remedial 2,003 5,383 3,956 13,633 17,589 24,975 Remediation in All Three 1,915 4,431 3,417 10,354 13,771 20,117 College Ready 1,124 4,366 2,585 11,654 14,239 19,729 Region R# 1 Northwest ,224 1,663 2,338 R# 2 North Central ,002 1,242 1,764 R# 3 Northeast ,676 2,127 2,953 R# 4 Lafayette ,048 1,366 1,953 R# 5 Kokomo ,186 R# 6 East Central ,550 1,858 2,577 R# 7 Terre Haute ,299 R# 8 Central Indiana ,348 3,165 4,426 R# 9 Richmond R#10 Columbus ,074 R#11 Southeast R#12 Southwest ,387 R#13 Sellersburg ,138 R#14 Bloomington ,241 1,716 * Student characteristic at entry term ** Enrolled at Ivy Tech in fall, 2012 or spring, 2013 IR # Page 27

30 Student Characteristics* Table 3-A Fall 2010 First-Time and Inbound Transfer Students: Three-year Outcomes by Student Characteristics by percent of students Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers All Students 8.0% 21.6% 15.8% 54.5% 70.4% Age Group 15 to % 24.0% 19.0% 50.1% 69.2% 20 to % 17.9% 18.4% 57.0% 75.4% 25 to % 19.9% 13.2% 58.5% 71.7% 30 to % 22.4% 11.9% 56.9% 68.8% 35 to % 25.4% 11.1% 51.8% 63.0% 40 to % 25.2% 8.4% 55.2% 63.6% 50 to % 21.8% 5.5% 56.8% 62.3% 60 and Over 11.9% 18.3% 7.3% 62.4% 69.7% Not Reported 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% Gender Female 8.6% 24.2% 15.8% 51.4% 67.3% Male 7.3% 18.2% 15.9% 58.6% 74.6% Not Reported 10.5% 20.5% 11.7% 57.3% 69.0% Ethnicity African American 3.3% 15.6% 19.9% 61.2% 81.1% Caucasian 9.3% 22.7% 14.8% 53.1% 67.9% Hispanic 7.5% 25.7% 14.2% 52.7% 66.8% Other Minority 6.0% 21.5% 17.6% 54.9% 72.4% Not Reported 10.3% 24.1% 13.8% 51.7% 65.5% Division School of Applied Sciences 11.7% 19.9% 25.4% 43.0% 68.4% and Engineering School of Business 11.0% 19.6% 14.5% 55.0% 69.4% School of Education 7.1% 23.7% 15.4% 53.8% 69.2% School of Fine Arts and Design 8.9% 25.4% 12.1% 53.7% 65.8% IR # Page 28

31 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred IR # Page 29 Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers School of Health Sciences 8.3% 22.9% 11.4% 57.3% 68.7% School of Liberal Arts and 4.8% 21.4% 22.3% 51.5% 73.9% Sciences School of Nursing 34.8% 13.0% 15.2% 37.0% 52.2% School of Public and Social 8.3% 20.8% 13.1% 57.7% 70.9% Services School of Technology 11.5% 16.2% 8.3% 64.0% 72.3% Undecided 7.1% 24.5% 16.4% 52.1% 68.4% Not Reported 0.0% 28.6% 14.3% 57.1% 71.4% Major Accounting 15.2% 18.9% 17.2% 48.7% 65.9% Accounting - Distance 23.5% 17.6% 15.3% 43.5% 58.8% Advanced Manufacturing 13.3% 22.2% 2.2% 62.2% 64.4% Agriculture 25.7% 21.2% 24.8% 28.3% 53.1% Automotive Electrical/Electron 21.1% 5.3% 5.3% 68.4% 73.7% Automotive Technology 8.1% 14.1% 8.6% 69.1% 77.8% Aviation 0.0% 31.6% 26.3% 42.1% 68.4% Biotechnology 7.7% 17.9% 30.8% 43.6% 74.4% Bookkeeper 28.6% 7.1% 0.0% 64.3% 64.3% Brakes and Suspension 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 80.0% Building Construction Mgmt 0.0% 43.5% 8.7% 47.8% 56.5% Business Admin-Distance 11.3% 18.2% 18.2% 52.2% 70.4% Business Administration 8.9% 19.6% 15.5% 56.0% 71.4% Chemical Technology 13.3% 0.0% 13.3% 73.3% 86.7% Community Emergency Prep 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Computer Info Systems- Distance 6.3% 14.2% 19.5% 60.0% 79.5% Computer Information Systems 12.5% 17.8% 12.7% 57.1% 69.8% Computer Information Tech 9.9% 21.3% 9.9% 59.0% 68.8% Construction Technician 6.9% 17.2% 10.3% 65.5% 75.9% Construction Technology 11.6% 17.4% 9.9% 61.0% 70.9% Criminal Justice 6.7% 20.3% 12.9% 60.1% 72.9% Criminal Justice-Distance 4.0% 17.2% 15.4% 63.4% 78.8% Database 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% Dental Assisting 24.0% 16.0% 4.0% 56.0% 60.0% Dental Hygiene 16.7% 33.3% 13.9% 36.1% 50.0%

32 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred IR # Page 30 Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Design Technology 11.2% 20.7% 12.6% 55.4% 68.1% Design Technology-Distance 5.0% 21.3% 6.3% 67.5% 73.8% Early Childhood Education 7.3% 23.2% 11.9% 57.6% 69.5% Early Childhood Educ- Distance 5.2% 22.3% 12.7% 59.8% 72.5% Education 7.9% 24.8% 20.0% 47.3% 67.3% Electrical Engineering Technol 7.6% 18.2% 15.2% 59.1% 74.2% Electrocardiography Technician 8.3% 8.3% 25.0% 58.3% 83.3% Electronics and Computer Tech 5.6% 15.7% 10.2% 68.5% 78.7% Engine Performance 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 86.7% 100.0% Engineering Technology 2.3% 39.5% 18.6% 39.5% 58.1% Fine Arts 6.8% 13.6% 15.9% 63.6% 79.5% Fundamental Payroll 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% General Liberal Studies 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% General Studies 4.9% 20.6% 22.5% 52.0% 74.5% General Studies-Distance 3.8% 22.5% 17.5% 56.3% 73.7% Health Care Support 3.9% 25.3% 15.8% 55.1% 70.8% Health Information Technology 3.3% 28.9% 11.1% 56.7% 67.8% Heating/Cooling 22.3% 8.7% 1.9% 67.0% 68.9% Homeland Security/Emergency Mg 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hospitality Administration 10.2% 20.1% 11.8% 57.9% 69.7% Human Resources Management 10.0% 35.0% 15.0% 40.0% 55.0% Human Services 9.3% 22.1% 13.8% 54.8% 68.6% Human Services-Distance 5.8% 22.0% 13.3% 59.0% 72.3% Imaging Sciences 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Industrial Electrician 18.9% 16.2% 8.1% 56.8% 64.9% Industrial Technology 16.5% 15.9% 6.5% 61.2% 67.7% Information Security 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Interior Design 11.8% 26.5% 14.7% 47.1% 61.8% Java Programming 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Kinesiology 7.7% 7.7% 26.9% 57.7% 84.6% Lib Arts 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Liberal Arts 4.9% 23.2% 24.5% 47.4% 71.9%

33 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred IR # Page 31 Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Library Technical Asst- Distanc 11.8% 33.3% 15.7% 39.2% 54.9% Logistics Management 10.0% 30.0% 10.0% 50.0% 60.0% Machine Tool 0.0% 18.2% 9.1% 72.7% 81.8% Machine Tool Technology 0.0% 37.5% 0.0% 62.5% 62.5% Manufactng Prod&Oper Distance 0.0% 25.0% 8.3% 66.7% 75.0% Manufacturing Operations 0.0% 28.6% 0.0% 71.4% 71.4% Manufacturing/Industrial Tech 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% Mechanical Engineering Tech 7.5% 8.8% 40.0% 43.8% 83.8% Medical Assisting 9.2% 23.9% 8.5% 58.3% 66.9% Medical Laboratory Technology 28.0% 24.0% 4.0% 44.0% 48.0% Microsoft Cert Applicatn Specl 10.0% 0.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% Mortuary Sciences 7.7% 15.4% 23.1% 53.8% 76.9% Network Administration 15.8% 21.1% 10.5% 52.6% 63.2% Nursing 32.1% 14.3% 14.3% 39.3% 53.6% Office Administration 17.2% 24.0% 11.8% 47.1% 58.8% Office Administration- Distance 15.0% 27.5% 7.5% 50.0% 57.5% Ophthalmic Technology 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Paralegal 11.8% 25.0% 12.5% 50.7% 63.2% Paralegal Studies-Distance 16.6% 18.6% 10.3% 54.5% 64.8% Paramedic Science 13.5% 10.8% 10.8% 64.9% 75.7% Patient Care 3.7% 11.1% 11.1% 74.1% 85.2% PC Support and Administration 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Pharmacy Technician 6.1% 12.1% 18.2% 63.6% 81.8% Phlebotomy Technician 14.1% 12.8% 11.5% 61.5% 73.1% Physical Therapy Assisting 8.8% 32.4% 11.8% 47.1% 58.8% Power Train 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% Practical Nursing 38.9% 11.1% 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% Pre-Engineering 5.7% 31.4% 20.0% 42.9% 62.9% Professional Communication 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 40.0% Public Safety 8.0% 25.0% 14.0% 53.0% 67.0% Radiation Therapy 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 60.0% 80.0% Radiologic Technology 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 100.0% Respiratory Care 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 66.7%

34 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred IR # Page 32 Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers Routing and Switching 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Surgical Technology 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% Sustainable Energy 34.6% 3.8% 7.7% 53.8% 61.5% Systems Security 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 83.3% 83.3% Therapeutic Massage 11.7% 16.7% 10.0% 61.7% 71.7% Undeclared 7.1% 24.5% 16.4% 52.1% 68.4% Visual Communication 8.8% 26.8% 11.3% 53.0% 64.3% Visual Programming 0.0% 23.5% 5.9% 70.6% 76.5% Web Management 0.0% 44.4% 0.0% 55.6% 55.6% Welding 5.7% 14.2% 6.6% 73.6% 80.2% Pell Eligibility Pell Eligible 6.7% 20.5% 14.1% 58.8% 72.9% Not Pell Eligible 12.2% 24.9% 18.8% 44.2% 63.0% Did Not Apply for Aid 8.7% 22.4% 20.9% 48.1% 68.9% Student Population Description New First Time 6.5% 22.3% 13.4% 57.8% 71.2% Transfer 13.8% 18.8% 25.1% 42.3% 67.4% Cumulative Hours Earned 0 0.0% 0.4% 12.8% 86.7% 99.6% 0.1 to % 5.7% 14.7% 79.6% 94.3% 15 to % 24.7% 21.5% 52.5% 74.0% 30 to % 49.7% 21.2% 22.5% 43.7% 45 to % 57.3% 11.9% 6.6% 18.5% >= % 34.5% 4.7% 2.1% 6.8% Not reported 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 87.1% 100.0% GPA Range 0 to % 12.4% 13.0% 74.6% 87.6% 2 to % 37.7% 17.9% 35.5% 53.3% 3 to % 31.4% 19.4% 25.6% 45.0% 4 8.8% 9.7% 17.4% 64.1% 81.5% Not reported 0.0% 0.3% 12.9% 86.9% 99.7% College Preparedness Math Remedial Only 7.9% 19.8% 16.8% 55.6% 72.4%

35 Student Characteristics* Earned Ivy Tech Credential Still Enrolled at Ivy Tech** Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Transferred Did Not Earn Ivy Tech Credential, Did not Transfer Total Leavers College Ready in Math 8.3% 25.0% 14.0% 52.6% 66.6% Reading Remedial Only 8.0% 21.6% 15.8% 54.5% 70.4% College Ready in Reading 6.5% 18.7% 18.7% 56.1% 74.8% Writing Remedial Only 8.0% 21.6% 15.8% 54.6% 70.4% College Ready in Writing 10.1% 21.8% 15.6% 52.5% 68.1% Math and Writing Remedial 8.5% 21.6% 16.5% 53.4% 69.9% Math and Reading Remedial 8.3% 21.5% 16.0% 54.1% 70.2% Writing and Reading Remedial 8.0% 21.6% 15.8% 54.6% 70.4% Remediation in All Three 9.5% 22.0% 17.0% 51.5% 68.5% College Ready 5.7% 22.1% 13.1% 59.1% 72.2% Region R# 1 Northwest 6.3% 22.5% 18.8% 52.4% 71.1% R# 2 North Central 5.7% 23.9% 13.6% 56.8% 70.4% R# 3 Northeast 6.1% 21.9% 15.3% 56.8% 72.0% R# 4 Lafayette 11.0% 19.0% 16.3% 53.7% 69.9% R# 5 Kokomo 9.7% 23.6% 11.7% 55.0% 66.7% R# 6 East Central 9.0% 18.9% 12.0% 60.1% 72.1% R# 7 Terre Haute 6.7% 22.5% 16.4% 54.4% 70.8% R# 8 Central Indiana 6.1% 22.4% 18.5% 53.1% 71.5% R# 9 Richmond 7.6% 23.9% 9.5% 59.0% 68.4% R#10 Columbus 10.8% 22.6% 10.9% 55.7% 66.6% R#11 Southeast 13.7% 21.7% 12.6% 52.0% 64.6% R#12 Southwest 11.6% 20.9% 13.6% 53.9% 67.5% R#13 Sellersburg 11.0% 20.2% 16.1% 52.7% 68.8% R#14 Bloomington 7.4% 20.3% 24.7% 47.7% 72.3% * Student characteristic at entry term ** Enrolled at Ivy Tech in fall, 2012 or spring, 2013 IR # Page 33

36 Appendix B Survival Analysis Results Cox Proportional Hazard Model for Outcome: Leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential Factor Hazard Ratio P Value Transferring into Ivy Tech, rather than being a first time student at Ivy Tech 0.85 < 0.01 The more times that a student changes his major 0.51 < 0.01 Being 25 years old or older, compared to younger students 0.96 < 0.05 Testing into a math remedial course 0.93 < 0.01 Testing into a reading remedial course 0.93 < 0.01 Completing a Math gateway course 0.42 < 0.01 Completing English gateway course 0.49 < 0.01 Being a part time student during the first semester 0.95 < 0.01 Being Pell eligible, compared to applying for financial aid and not being Pell eligible 1.07 < 0.01 Not passing any courses during the first semester at Ivy Tech, compared to passing all courses 1.85 < 0.01 Passing 1% to 34% of one s courses during the first semester at Ivy Tech, compared to passing all courses 1.4 < 0.01 Passing 35% to 67% of one s courses during the first semester at Ivy Tech, compared to passing all courses 1.18 < 0.01 Passing 68% to 99% of one s courses during the first semester at Ivy Tech, compared to passing all courses 1.06 < 0.01 IR # Page 34

37 Survival Analysis Methodology Survival analysis is used to investigate the time until an event takes place. In this project, we use the Cox Proportional Hazard model to estimate the hazard, or likelihood, of leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential. For each independent variable in our model, we estimate the hazard ratio. A hazard ratio greater than one suggests that the factor is associated with a greater likelihood of leaving Ivy Tech without a earning credential, while a hazard ratio of less than one suggests that the factor is associated with a lower likelihood of leaving Ivy Tech without a credential. A hazard ratio equal to one indicates that the factor has no significant relationship with leaving Ivy Tech without a credential. In the table on the previous page, we present the hazard ratios for key variables that have a statistically significant relationship with a student leaving Ivy Tech without earning a credential. In addition to the factors in this table, we also controlled for the following characteristics: gender, ethnicity, testing into a writing remedial course, student s division of major, student s region, and the type of credential (Associates degree versus a certificate) that the student pursued. After excluding from the analysis students who had missing data for key variables in the analysis, there were 25,168 students in our survival analysis dataset. IR # Page 35