A comparison of Ecampus and F2F enrollment trends: Interdepartmental comparisons

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1 A comparison of and trends: Interdepartmental comparisons Roger Nielsen College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Last year, I conducted an funded research projected focused on the evaluation of the level of competition between courses taught through and those delivered face to face on campus. In effect, we to used readily available information (from departmental records), to predict whether specific offering strategies make a difference in whether and face to face courses reinforce one another or interfere with one another s mission. The scope of that investigation was limited to courses offered through Geosciences for the following reasons. Presence of a substantial number of courses with equivalent face to face courses Large total number of courses - both and face to face Coherent yet diverse departmental mission that provided a data single source Summary of most significant observations of previous study The dynamics of and face to face courses appear to be independent of one another for Geosciences. This implies that, at least to a significant degree, they serve two separate populations. Enrollment in courses often take 2-3 years to stablize after initial development of the course. There is evidence that courses within a specific type compete with one another within a specific quarter (e.g. within face to face or 3 level bac core courses). The driving force for is different with different course type. Required courses are dependent on the number of students in the associated majors- a figure known by most units. Courses that are part of a menu of options (e.g. are not specifically required for a degree program) are particularly suseptable to fluctuation. For most baccalaureate core courses, students have had a wide range of options. There is some evidence that advisors particularly the full time professional advisors play an important role in trends. New or Remaining Questions Are trends observed from the Department of Geosciences dataset similar in other disciplines? Are the patterns different for summer courses? Are students being forced into course sections due to restricted access to, or closure of sections. Will trends continue to stay near capacity as new courses are developed/ug increases? What is the influence of broader university trends on and? What is the role of the full time advising staff in driving trends? Using new or existing university level tracking tools for data Based on our previous research, Geoscience courses with the greatest immediate success in attracting new are those from courses that are 1) part of established degree programs, and 2) have exhibited excess in face to face sections. In effect, is driven by the educational needs of the students e.g. their need to satisfy a specific degree 1

2 OSU total year goal. Long term success in predicting what courses are needed at the course level for other departments is dependent on understanding how each course fulfills core educational needs of the students in those other units, In addition, we must consider the broader trends including total number of students and student credit hours. Therefore, to access a more general dataset that could be used to track, we applied the numbers derived from the Office of Institutional Research (available through their website) and we partnered with (Brian Lindsley) to obtain the numbers on individual courses through Banner. Following on the analysis done last year, we expanded our dataset to 6 departments. These specific units were selected in order to examine trends in departments that had a wide range of missions and investment in. All units deliver some courses through, however the proportion ranges from a few % (EXSS) to almost half (FW). In addition, I attempted to establish some contextual constraints in the form of university wide data, and statewide drivers for. Departments Psychology Anthropology Fisheries and Wildlife Sociology Geosciences Exercise and sport Science The dataset used to analyze trends was selected on the basis of assumed accessibility (e.g. no information on specific students), yet would provide sufficient background to be able to understand what the controlling parameters were on. 1,, 95, 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, Data Course number Mode of delivery (, ) term offered (including summer) cap instructor OSU , Figure 1 Total student credit hour delivery ( plus ) during However, in doing our query we discovered that cap data was not stored in a location that was readily accessible without a higher level of permissions. This is an important issue with respect to enabling analysis of by anyone outside of central administration. Ultimately we were able (after over a month) to access that last dataset through an MOU from ECS. If the leadership of individual units are to be

3 OSU total year /Oregon population able to adequately analyze their own trends, a more coherent mechanism must be found for access of both and cap data. Overall University trends Correlation of Oregon unemployment rate and /population correlated with previous year unemployment rate AY Oregon unemployment rate (%) Figure 2 Correlation of OSU total student credit hours normalized to Oregon population (21-211) One of the central questions raised with regards to student access to courses pertains to decisions made at the unit level with respect to how often, and when courses are offered. Those decisions effect student s ability to complete their degree on time, and may result in the perception that they are being forced into on line classes. Any understanding of the trends for individual courses, modes of delivery or units requires that we first understand the overall trends for the university as a whole (Figure 1). In spite of the fact that these data are readily available from the Office of Institutional Research, the specific numbers are largely unknown to most faculty. The driving force for this and increase in the past 3 years has often been attributed to a combination of population increase and unemployment rate. This is confirmed by the strong correlation of normalized to population and unemployment rate (Figure 2). As a first step in understanding the dynamics of individual courses, we must first examine the trends for the colleges and for (Figure 3). In general, the trends for the colleges follow the university trends, with an increase until 23, followed by a slow decline and finally a rapid increase over the past 3 years. However, this pattern is not characteristic of the 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, College compared to composite Engineering Liberal Arts Science Business HHS Figure 3 Student credit hour trends for Note that several units have trends distinct from the overall OSU trends. trajectory of. Most important, grew rapidly during a period of stable in those colleges that support high (including many bac core) classes (Science and Liberal Arts. However, this observation raises another set of questions specifically, 1) what drives the overall college trends? and 2) are those drivers controlling student access to course sections?

4 Departmental trends To answer that question, we must look deeper, at the trends at the unit level, and at the trends for the individual classes to which students feel they do not have sufficient access Anthropology EXSS annual trends face to face total face to face total FW annual trends Geosciences annual trends face to face 12 total face to face 6 1 total Academic Year 25 PSY annual trends Sociology annual trends face to face total face to face total Figure 4. Enrollment for Anthropology, Exercise and Sport Sciences, Fish and Wildlife, Geosciences, Psychology and Sociology At the highest level, examination of unit level student credit hour delivery demonstrates how variable each unit s trajectory has been (Figure 4a-f). For example, the trend of for the 4

5 Department of Anthropology is characterized by a decrease in over the past 1 years, mirrored by increasing. The total has changed very little, suggesting the possibility that and are somehow linked (e.g. they are drawing from the same student population). In contrast, Exercise and Sport Science has a relatively small set of courses. That has not changed significantly over the past 1 years, during which overall delivery has been fairly constant, again suggesting a possible link (e.g. a stable population of students). At the other end of the spectrum, Fish and Wildlife has made a large investment in their on line degree program, including the development of a number of courses. The FW trends document the results of that investment, with rapid increase in (now almost 5 % of all for FW). However, unlike Anthropology, the has remained constant resulting in an increase in the overall figures. The trends for the Departments of Geosciences and Psychology are different yet again, with the decreasing through 28, with a rapid increase since. courses delivered through both departments have exhibited a consistent rate of growth for over 1 years. These trends are similar to the overall university trends, consistent with the broad range of course types offered by each unit. The trends for the Department of Sociology are different yet again, with very stable, and a modest increase in over the past 1 years. This pattern may change as new majors in the on line Sociology degree program grows. Understanding the influence of such a change requires that we examine the patterns for the individual courses. In last year s report, we described the evidence for growth linked to new on line degree programs (for example Geo221 Environmental Geology and the new on line Environmental Sciences degree). However, the trends only tell half the story with respect to student access to their preferred version of the course. Individual course trends There are a number of ways one can describe the potential for student access. One obvious means is to compare course with course capacity. If one or the other (or both) version of a class remains at capacity, and no new sections are created in response to increased, then one can assert that students do not have full access to that class. Second, one can look for cases where units have discontinued offering versions of a class after they developed an on line version. In that case, student access to the version will have been restricted by the reduction or elimination of seats in the those on campus sections. Finally, we can look for cases where the classroom capacity has been reduced following remodeling. In such cases it is common for remodeled classrooms to lose 1-2% capacity. A unit may respond to that reduction by moving classrooms, or by adding sections. We can use our dataset to identify how often that has happened. We can begin by looking at the patterns for a number of individual courses in the 6 departments we investigated (Figure 5-1). In each case, we selected specific courses that have been delivered with both modes ( and ), and which were sufficiently high in so as to represent a statistically meaningful population. We will begin by looking at the data from a cross section of Anthropology courses (Figure 5). These data illustrate a number of characteristics that explain the broader departmental trends, but also demonstrate how different the trends can be for different courses. As we described 5

6 Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment above, the overall trend for Anthropology has been one of incremental decrease in paired with increasing. To examine the possibility that was being replaced by, we looked at a selection of high courses. The data (Figure 5) illustrate the fact that different things were happening in each course. In the case of Anth11, The declined in the sections, remaining significantly below capacity until 28. At that point, the course capacity was reduced, and remained at capacity for the past 3 years. The trends for the section remained fairly constant, and low compared to the totals (e.g. the sections did not take up the extra capacity capacity vs Anth capacity capacity Anth21 comparitive cultures Anth38 Cultures in conflict capacity 2 Anth311 people of the world NA capacity capacity capacity Figure 5. Comparison of and course capacity for and On line versions of Anthropology courses (21-211). Each course is designated by a different color, with the horizontal bars indicating capacity in the course, and the symbol indicating the actual in week 4. The trends for Anth21 were more stable, with both the and sections remaining near capacity. However, the capacity for Anth21 was reduced from 24-28, in spite of the high (both and ). 6

7 Anth311 is a lower course, applied often as an upper division bac core requirement. Its patterns show that the capacity of the sections were reduced, again in spite of the course being near capacity. The section capacity was increased simulaneously, but never attained capacity after 28. Finally, Anth38 declined dramatically, in spite of fairly high. The sections are characterized by fairly stable, but have remained below capacity. Overall, the trends suggest that course sections have been cut in spite of existing demand. However, there is no evidence that on line version capacity has been increased for individual courses. Instead, what the data suggest is that on line versions were developed for more courses over time. The motivation is not self evident from this data. Exercise and Sport Science has not participated in the development of on line versions of their courses to the extent of the other departments examined here. As noted above, their EXSS131 EXSS131 capacity EXSS132 EXSS132 capacity EXSS trends Academic Year has remained fairly stable over the past 1 years. Individual courses however have more complex trends (Figure 6). Notably, EXSS 131, 132 and 158, all increased over that time. This was enabled by increased capacity, including an increase in the number of sections, and the use of larger rooms (data in supplimentary table 1). Figure 6 Annual combined for individual EXSS courses compared to capacity FW251 Principles of FW conservation capacity capacity FW311 Orthithology capacity capacity Figure 7. Annual combined for individual Fish and Wildlife courses compared to capacity. 7

8 capacity capacity capacity capacity Geo11 Intro to Phys Geology Geo3 Sustainibility Figure 8 Geoscience course s compared to capacity. At the other end of the spectrum (with respect to the proportion of on line vs ), Fish and Wildlife has aggressively pursued the development of their on line BS degree. The resulting increase in their on line presence can be seen in the increase in on line (Figure 4). However, there is no evidence that their capacity has been compromised (Figure 7). Specifically, if we consider the trends for two of the FW lower division courses, we can see that the has been stable. However, we can also see that it has remained near capacity, with evidence of a modest effort to increase capacity in the face of increased on campus. In contrast, capacity has been added to the on line sections, which appear to be more responsive to demand. The Department of Geosciences was the focus of the first stage of our research into trends. In this round, we have focused on a number of the same courses, and updated the results. As per our last report, the trends for individual courses vary dramatically from one another. For example, Geo11 (Introductory Physical Geology) has seen a slow decline in and in the course capacity. In detail, this course has been effected by a number of factors. First, was influenced by the overall softness in university wide demand as documented in Figure 1. Second, the number of laboratory sections was limited by the availability of GTA support during the period Finally, one of the large lecture halls in Geo15 Geography of Non Western world Geo16 Geography of Western World Geo15 Geo15 capacity Geo15 Geo15 capacity Geo16 Geo16 capacity Geo365 Intro to GIS capacity capacity

9 2 15 which the class has traditionally offered underwent a remodel this year (Gilfillan Auditorium), with a resultant ~2% reduction in the number of seats for Fall 211. Therefore, the overall trend was a composite of at least three factors that acted together to reduce access. Geo15 and 16 are two introductory courses in Geography, each of whch has been offered multiple times per year. The capacity for each of these classes has been nearly constant for the past 8 years. The actual has fluctuated declining from 21-28, during the period that overall demand was lower, then increasing in the past 3 years, consistent with the overall college trends. Of these two classes, only Geo16 has an on line version. However, the patterns of for the big sections are essentially identical. In addition, the on line versions have had a nearly constant at near capacity. However, no additional sections have been developed, in spite of the evidence for demand. Geo3 (sustainability for the common good) is a bac core synthesis course also offered multiple times per year. Enrollment trended down during 24-7, dropping significantly below capacity. In response, course capacity was reduced (reduced # of sections). At approximately the same time, an on line version was created and has been offered multiple times per year, with near capacity. However, the combined ( plus ) declined during this period indicating that the trends were not a simple redistribution of a fixed student population. Since 28, Geo3 has increased back to capacity, perhaps in response to overall increased demand due to increased. However, capacity has not been increased significantly in response (e.g. back to 23 levels). Geo365 (Introduction to GIS) is a required course for a number of majors and certificate programs, and is also used by several other degrees as a prerequisite for upper division courses in GIS (geographic information science). This course differs from many of the other courses we have looked at in this study, primarily because is limited by the maximum number of workstations in each computer classroom, and access to software. The figures issustrate two important trends. First, has been near or at capacity for over 1 years. Second, the capacity of sections dropped dramatically in 22-4 due to changes in the availability of instructors in this rather restricted field. In 24, an on line version was developed with the goal of increasing access, and expanding the on line GIS program. However, it was found that the on line version was almost as expensive per seat as the version a fact that significantly restricted the incentive to expand the capacity. PSY21 General Psy I PSY35 Human Lifespan capacity capacity capacity capacity Figure 9 Psychology course s compared to capacity

10 The numbers for the Department of Psychology show some of the same phenomena. Psy21 is the introductory Psychology course offered by the department, and typical of similar courses offered elsewhere, it has high, serving a wide student body. The pattern of has generally followed the university trends. However, our data illustrates how important it is to put the figures within the context of the course capacity. In the case of Psy21, one can see that was highly variable, with a drop in 24-8, followed by a rapid increase. That increase was enabled by an increase in the number of sections offered, and in their size. In 27, an on line version was developed, and has been at capacity since. Sections of the version have not been enlarged, nor have additional sections been added. Psy35 (Human Lifespan) has had an even more dramatic pattern of. In this case, much of the variation can be attributed to changes in personnel, and by inference, to the number of sections the department could offer. An on line version was created in 22, but has reached capacity only intermittently. The degree to which fluctuation of in the two modes of delivery documents the low level of overlap of the student population served (low level but not unconnected) Soc24 Intro to Sociology capacity capacity Academic Year Figure 1 Sociology course s compared to capacity. The introductory courses offered by the Department of Sociology have equally divergent trends. Specifically, Soc24 and Soc26 each serve a broad student population. In addition, both have on line versions of about the same size. Further, both have been at or near capacity for the past 1 years. However, the capacity and of Soc26 has been much more variable. The record documents the fact that the fluctuation was related to both changes in instructor, and in the number of sections offered. In neither case did the department offer additional sections of the on line version as a mechanism to increase access. An important part of the story with regards to the history of Soc24 and Soc26 is the frequency with which the instructors changed. Soc24 has been taught with essentially the same group of 4 rotating instructors for 1 years. In contrast, Soc26 has been taught by 1 different instructors. Needless to say, this does not encourage stability in any aspect of the course delivery. Summer trends The trends, and the influence of different modes of delivery were not part of our previous investigation of Geoscience courses. Nevertheless, many students rely on summer SOC26 capacity capacity

11 courses to catch up or to finish degrees. Some faculty, particularly in the liberal arts, rely on teaching summer courses for summer salary. Finally, there was interest in comparing the trends for summer session with because both modes have a budget model that returns tuition to the unit proportional to. There, there is much less of a motivation to focus on course development/delivery than is the case for the academic year. Competition between and course sections One of the central conclusions of last year s report on the dynamics for the Department of Geosciences was that the and was largely decoupled. In effect, the different course delivery modes served two largely different populations of students. That analysis did not preclude the possibility that some students were pushed into an on line section due to restricted access to sections. As noted above, one way that units may make this issue more common is to cut sections of courses that have had at or near capacity. This is not always clear from the record, however if a unit developed an on line version of a class, then cut the version, then students who needed that class for completion of their degree would be required to use the on line version. Some cases of reduced capacity have been noted above. In each of those cases, the capacity was reduced in spite of the course being at capacity (e.g. Geo365, Soc26, Psy35). Cases where the section was closed completely are rarely required courses. For example, in each of the following cases, the version was dropped, or where the number of seats was significantly reduced after the on line version was developed Geo365, PSY41, PSY454/554, SOC36, SOC421, SOC45/55, SOC454/554, FW325, FW427/527, FW485/585. To better understand the range of conditions and criteria appropriate for each department, I talked to someone in each unit who had been involved in decision making. In each of those cases, the reasons for making the change varied, ranging from loss of instructor for the version, the initiative of a single instructor, or anemic in the version (and the department felt they could not offer a low, non-required course). In no case was the motivation solely to gain additional revenue. However, in a number of cases, units made the decision to cut sections, or not to add them due to budget restrictions. Addition of sections was facilitated by the more responsive budget model. However, in spite of the economic incentive, examination of the trends shows how most units have not expanded the size or number of on line sections in the face of increasing demand. One of the most commonly cited reasons was the difficulty of finding appropriate instructors, particularly for the normal rate of pay. In addition, faculty in most units have resisted the addition of non-tenure track instructors particularly if the motivation was to increase the number of on line sections. That resistance to adding temporary or non-tenure track faculty simply to add capacity may also be part of the reason that units have not expanded the sections. In addition, current instructors have little motivation for moving the site or the time of a large class section simply to increase access (it creates additional work, for which the reward system is vague at best). Summer A number of units (particularly in Liberal Arts), rely on face to face in Summer as a revenue source. Given the rapid increase in summer, there is concern among some unit leaders that in summer may be undercutting the face to face. This was not a problem that was addressed in the previous investigation, largely due to the relatively small number of summer courses offered in Geosciences. In 11

12 Student Credit Hours Student Credit Hours addition, the difference in the summer budget model for face to face courses (compared to the academic year) suggests that conclusions based on academic year data may not be transferable to summer. face to face Total Anthropology summer trends EXSS Total EXXS summer Geo summer FW summer trends 12 8 Total 15 1 Total Total PSY summer trends Total Sociology summer trends Figure 11. Comparison of and total summer for Anthropology, EXSS, Fish and Wildlife, Geosciences, Psychology and Sociology. 12

13 The data (Figure 11) document a number of things about our summer programs. First, their trends are all somewhat different. Some trends oscillate (Anth, Soc), some are flat (EXSS and Geo) and some have increased (FW). The trends are equally distinct, but all showing a significant increase over the past 1 years (except EXSS). They are distinctive in their rate of increase, and in the proportion of total. The proportion of ranges from 4% to 7%, a much higher proportion than for the academic year (Figure 4). To some degree, this is surprising given the budget incentive to add summer sections. Another important observation that is evident only from the detailed course is that the vast majority of summer sections are small (15-3), near the point at which the costs of offering the summer session course is sustainable. In the past, it has been financially feasible to offer low courses because instructors could be paid in proportion to. It remains to be seen if the change in the compensation model implemented this past year will have an effect on a unit s ability to offer classes during summer session. One other important observation relates to the overall. The data includes no information that would suggest that and s are competing with one another. Enrollment in most summer session sections have remained stable (see supplementary tables). Most of the observed fluctuation in has been due to changes in the number of sections offered. For example, the large oscillation in the summer for Psychology (25-7) was due to an individual faculty member s departure, and the time it was required to bring someone else on board (information is implicit in the change of instructor see supplementary table). Summary of Observations Enrollment patterns of departments are often different from their college, and each other but influenced by university wide patterns. In the face of increased demand (as indicated by a course reaching capacity on a recurring basis) departments have not generally added new on line sections, or expansion of existing sections. There are a number of exceptions, but there is clear evidence for differences in how management is implimented between or even within units. Expansion of access to sections has been hindered by a number of factors, including the shortage of large classroom space, remodeling of classrooms, and the reluctance of faculty to move the time or location of a class. In addition, there is little in the way of incentives for individual faculty to expand the size of a class. There are a number of cases where units have discontinued or reduced the size of sections of classes after they developed an version of the course. However, the motivation for doing this is highly variable but usually driven by the budget model. Evidence suggests that and sections are not competing with one another with respect to student preference in effect they are acting as independent populations. However, there is evidence that in some cases at least and are competing with one another with respect to faculty teaching time often tied to changes in personnel. When a faculty member leaves, units are more likely to create sections than new sections. In addition, loss of faculty, or re-direction of faculty effort has sometimes resulted in the loss of sections following the development of an 13

14 on line version. This phenomena is not widespread, but has had disproportionate consequences in some areas. Access to summer session classes has expanded in most departments over the past 1 years. This expansion has been lead by sections. However, there is no evidence that growth of summer session has been at the expense of offerings. Recommendations Academic units develop curricula for a number of reasons, including the desire to create a stable source of funding, to broaden the footprint of their discipline and to engage a new population of students. The data presented above strongly supports the contention that there is great variety in how units have managed their and curricula. The approach used last year for the Department of Geosciences wherein we examined the details of and capacity for individual courses has allowed us to better understand the driving forces for access. Our conclusions with respect to the development of have not greatly changed. In effect, OSU has expanded both access to courses and now serves a broader student community than it did prior to the development of the curriculum. However, in some cases, budget pressures and the loss of faculty have forced departments to cut or at least restrict access to sections in a time of increasing. This has resulted in some students being pushed into on line sections in order to complete their degrees on time. Nevertheless, the general conclusion of last year still stands, growth of has not usually come at the expense of on-campus face to face course. In fact, the on line option has been a viable option for many to complete their degrees more quickly but at an increased cost. Our ability to accomplish similar goals in all OSU units will depend on careful planning and cooperation between and within units. A broader vision and a more complete understanding among the faculty requires that we develop a more accessible means of viewing the consequences of our decisions. Most important of these are decisions that affect our student s ability to fulfill their degree requirements in a way that is consistent with our specific commitment to them. One of those commitments, as voiced by the Provost s Special Task Force on Distance Education is to provide access to classes specifically, not to require on campus students to take distance courses in order to complete their degree. In general, the data supports the contention that we do actually provide access for most students. However, there are many grey areas, and some clear cases where individual units have not been able to maintain access to required classes (both bac core and requirements for majors). The role of advisors The question of the role of the cadre of professional advisors arose during the sessions where last year s results were communicated to groups of advisors. In general, advisors have not directed students into specific classes, rather more commonly they have directed students away from specific classes or modes of delivery. More important arguably, advisors are more likely than faculty or even many unit leaders to be aware of the degree to which capacity and scheduling affects student s ability to get the classes needed to graduate. This is based on one on one conversations with a number of advisors and department chairs across campus. Therefore, this information is not quantitative. However, a typical scenario described by both is one where advisors notify the chair or program head of the fact that a specific course has reached 14

15 capacity. The ability or willingness of a unit leader to respond is highly variable, depending on budget, faculty availability and the time available (e.g. when they learned about the problem). Therefore, advisors are a critical component of an informal notification system, but rarely are able to influence a course s capacity directly. Regardless, our conclusion of last year has remained true, specifically, the level of understanding of the availability of courses among advisors and unit leaders is extremely uneven. Distribution of the results Over the past 2 years, I have distributed the results of my research to the staff, at the Spring 21 faculty forum, to groups of advisors, as well as to groups of administrators. That will continue as we move into AY211-12, particularly since the results outlined above have broader implication than the study of Geosciences presented last year. Further, I will continue to work with the and registrar staff to develop a simple means of enabling decision makers to access and interpret information for their units. Presentation on a broader stage will require discussion with the and management staff (K. Peterson) in order to find the most appropriate external venue. 15