St. Cloud MSA 2015 Regional Profile Economic and Demographic Profile

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1 St. Cloud MSA 2015 Regional Profile Economic and Demographic Profile Published By: Luke Greiner Regional Analyst, Central & Southwest Minnesota Department of Employment & Economic Development / luke.greiner@state.mn.us P A G E 1

2 Demographics Stearns County is the largest county in Central Minnesota. With 151,053 people, Stearns County is the 7 th largest county in the state (out of 87 counties), and the largest county in the St. Cloud Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which is made up of two counties: Stearns and Benton County. According to data from the American Community Survey, the St. Cloud MSA is now home to nearly 190,000 people, after gaining just under 22,000 people over the last decade. Benton County was the 25 th largest county, with 38,756 people. Stearns County gained about 17,887 people from 2000 to 2013, a 13.4 percent increase, and Benton County welcomed 4,530 new residents, a 13.2 percent rise. Both grew faster than the state of Minnesota, which gained 428,261 additional people over the last 13 years, an 8.7 percent statewide increase. (See Table 1.) Table 1. Population Change, Change Geography Numeric Percent City of St. Cloud 59,107 65,996 +6, % Benton County 34,226 38,756 +4, % Stearns County 133, , , % St. Cloud MSA 167, , , % Minnesota 4,919,479 5,347, , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5 year estimate 22,000 person increase from 2000 to 2010 was the largest gain. (See Figure 1.) The St. Cloud MSA s recent population increase is part of a long-term trend. Over the last century, Stearns and Benton County gained about 130,000 people, after starting with just under 60,000 people in The two counties added just under 40,000 people in the first 50 years, then gained just over 90,000 people the last 50 years. The fastest growth occurred from 1960 to 1970, with each decade since then producing more than 10 percent gains, while the nearly After adding 6,889 net new residents from 2000 to 2013, St. Cloud jumped into the top 10 largest cities in the state of Minnesota, landing in 9 th place in With 65,996 people, St. Cloud ranks behind just Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester, Duluth, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, and Plymouth, Eagan, and just ahead of Woodbury, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids, and Eden Prairie. At the 2000 Census, the city of St. Cloud was 11 th largest overall with 59,107 people, but the city s 12 percent growth from 2000 to 2013 made it the 11 th fastest growing large city in the state. P A G E 2

3 Table City Population Estimates County City Population County City Population Stearns St. Cloud 66,219 Stearns St. Stephen 862 Stearns Sartell 16,217 Stearns Kimball 768 Benton Sauk Rapids 13,210 Stearns Brooten 748 Stearns Waite Park 7,372 Stearns Belgrade 733 Stearns St. Joseph 6,787 Stearns Holdingford 709 Stearns Sauk Centre 4,384 Stearns Freeport 665 Stearns Cold Spring 4,063 Stearns New Munich 322 Stearns Melrose 3,636 Stearns St. Martin 307 Stearns St. Augusta 3,381 Benton Gilman 238 Benton Foley 2,690 Stearns Greenwald 225 Stearns Albany 2,621 Stearns Elrosa 217 Stearns Rockville 2,488 Stearns Meire Grove 178 Stearns Paynesville 2,438 Stearns Lake Henry 103 Stearns Richmond 1,431 Stearns Roscoe 99 Stearns Avon 1,422 Stearns Spring Hill 87 Benton Rice 1,302 Stearns St. Anthony 86 Stearns Eden Valley 1,050 Stearns St. Rosa 64 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center P A G E 3 Rochester, the 3 rd largest city in the state, had 110,393 people in 2013, making it larger than St. Cloud by about 44,000 people. However, when the surrounding cities of Sartell (16,217 people), Sauk Rapids (13,210 people), Waite Park (7,372 people are added in, St. Cloud has a combined population of 102,795 people, making it similar in size to the city of Rochester in population. In addition to St. Cloud and its surrounding cities, other large cities in the St. Cloud MSA include St. Joeseph, with 6,787 people, and Sauk Centre and Cold Spring with over 4,000. A full 45 percent of city dwellers in the St. Cloud MSA live in the city of St. Cloud itself. When combined with the neighboring cities of Sartell, Sauk Rapids and Waite Park the resident concentration jumps to just over 70 percent. About 78 percent of the population of Stearns and Benton County live within the city limits of the communities listed in Table 2. Aside from communities like Rockville and St. Augusta that incorporated around the turn of this century, Rice was the fastest growing city in the MSA, increasing 83 percent from 2000 to 2013 from an additional 591 residents. Sartel was the second fastest growing community at 68 percent growth, adding 6,576 residents. The city of St. Cloud added the largest amount of residents from 2000 to 2013 increasing by 6,889 (11.7%) residents. Demographic Characteristics The St. Cloud MSA s population is younger than the state s population, due to a large student-aged cohort. About 61,000 people or 32 percent of the St. Cloud MSA were Millennials between the ages of 15 and 34, which was about 5 percent higher than the state of Minnesota (27.2%). The Millennial generation is easily the largest generation in the area, outnumbering the Baby Boomer generation by over 20,000. The region s postsecondary institutions are a major draw, especially in the 20- to 24-year-old age group. In fact one-in-ten residents of the St. Cloud MSA fall into that narrow age cohort compared to 6.7 percent for the state. (See Table 3.) Table 3. Population by Generational Age Cohort, 2013 Generation, Age St. Cloud MSA Benton Stearns Minnesota Gen Z, , % 20.9% 19.1% 19.9% Millennials, , % 29.6% 32.8% 27.2% Gen X, , % 20.0% 17.8% 19.9% Boomers, , % 20.8% 21.6% 23.8% Greatest Gen, , % 8.7% 8.8% 9.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau In every age cohort over 30 years of age there is a smaller share of the population in the MSA compared to the state. Thanks to the influx of students and fewer senior citizens, the median age for the MSA is about 4 years less than the states median of 37.6 years. Stearns County has a median age of 33.4 while Benton is 34.6 years.

4 In the last thirteen years every age cohort grew in population except the 35-to-49 year-old category. The shift occurring from the baby boomers is obvious as illustrated in table 4, where the 50- to -69 year age cohort grew by a whopping 57 percent. Table 4. St. Cloud MSA Population Change, Age Cohort Change ,234 36, % ,339 61, % ,720 34, % ,916 40, % ,183 16, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau The generational shift is less visible in the 2000 census data but for the most part, current generational cohorts can be found in the next younger cohort in 2000 data. Baby boomers, born from 1946 to 1964 are currently 51 to 69 years compared to the year 2000 when they were 36 to 54. Since 2000 the 50 to 69 year age cohort has increased by almost 15,000 people. The next largest gain was found in the year age cohort with an additional 4,678 residents. (See Table 4.) 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Figure 2. St. Cloud MSA Population Projections 0 to to to to ,676 60,977 34,316 44,480 19,031 20,782 62,993 32,306 46,533 35,560 21,440 58,907 36,864 44,267 44, Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center The next thirty years will prove to be an exercise of change as the major demographic shift will be in full swing and eventually level off. Figure 2 illustrates the magnitude of the change that will occur as boomers enter the oldest age cohort of 70 years and older. From 2015 to 2045 the amount of people 70 years or older will surge +134 percent! The more than 25,000 people 70 or older will just barely leave a void in the previous age cohort as millennials will just start entering their 60 s by By 2045 the millennial generation will attribute to a 7.4 percent increase in the 35- to- 49 year age cohort while leaving a slight decrease in the youngest two age cohorts. (See Figure 2 and Table 5.) Table 5. St. Cloud MSA Population Projections Age Cohort to 2045 Change 0 to 14 22,676 22,462 20,674 20,782 21,130 21,452 21,440-1, % 15 to 34 60,977 61,317 62,895 62,993 61,333 59,724 58,907-2, % 35 to 49 34,316 33,741 34,012 32,306 32,350 34,170 36,864 +2, % 50 to 69 44,480 48,161 47,632 46,533 45,424 43,916 44, % ,031 23,302 29,084 35,560 41,010 44,335 44, , % Total Population 181, , , , , , ,620 24, % Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center P A G E 4

5 Net Migration Another important component of population change is net migration, which is the comparison of people moving in versus people moving out. According to the U.S. Census Bureau s American Community Survey data from 2009 to 2013, about 19,700 people moved into the St. Cloud MSA from a different county in the state, a different state, or from another nation in the prior year. That included over 15,500 people who moved from a different county in Minnesota, about 3,200 people who moved from a different state, and just over 900 people who moved from abroad. To put those numbers in context, 8.5 percent of the population moved but remained in the MSA, 8.3% moved into the MSA from another region of Minnesota, 1.7 percent moved from a different state, and.5 percent of the total population moved from abroad. The largest demographic moving into the St. Cloud MSA are college aged young adults between 18 and 24 years. Almost a third of 18 to 24 year old residents have moved into the MSA within the last year from different counties across Minnesota, about 6 percent moved into the MSA from another state and 1.7 percent from a foreign country. Nearly 57 percent of all new residents to the MSA from other regions in Minnesota are 18- to 24 years of age as well as half of all new residents to the MSA from other states. This is a natural migration that typically occurs as young adult s graduate high school and leave home, however the many local educational institutions undoubtedly increases the amount of year olds moving into the MSA from other states. The most growth coming from abroad are in the Asian community where 7.5 percent have moved to the MSA within the last year from another country, followed by Blacks or African Americans at four percent. Both racial groups are estimated to draw over 220 residents compared to over three hundred White people migrating into the area from foreign countries. The influx of Somalis in the St. Cloud area can be found more visible in other categories such as those moving into the MSA from different counties in Minnesota (most likely Twin Cities counties) or other states. Unfortunately, detailed ethnic and racial groups are not delineated and are aggregated into larger broad categories. Estimates for groups where English is a second language can also be problematic due to the lack of reading comprehension required to accurately complete surveys. Many times Somalis do not identify as Black or African Americans, leading to a higher degree of error in survey results. More than 1-in-10 Blacks or African Americans (636 individuals) living in the St. Cloud MSA moved to the area from a county within Minnesota while 6.2 percent (346) moved to the area from a different state within the last year. They represent about 24 percent of migrants coming from a foreign country and 10.6 percent of those moving from a different state. The most prevalent educational attainment held by new residents (25 years or older) is an associate s degree, with the exception of migrants from abroad where most have less than a high school diploma. Individual incomes of new residents vary greatly depending on where people moved from. 18 percent of new residents from other Minnesota counties lie at the very bottom of the income distribution and earn less than $10,000 annually. 34 percent of new residents from out of state and 41 percent coming from abroad earn under $10,000 per year. These low income levels factor into the poverty status for new residents where just over 35 percent are below the poverty level and an additional 14 percent are between 100 and 149 percent of the poverty level. In comparison, 13 percent of the domestic population is below the poverty level with an additional 8 percent between 100 and 149 percent of the poverty level. To provide context the current poverty thresholds used to calculate official statistics is $12,316 in annual income for a person under 65 years. Also, according to the American Community Survey data, more than 80 percent of the residents in the St. Cloud MSA were born in the state of Minnesota. Another 15 percent were born in some other state in the United States. Roughly 7,500 residents or about 4 percent of the population were born outside the United States, with 6,500 of them living in Stearns County. Of those, about 2,800 were naturalized U.S. citizens, while another 3,700 were not U.S. citizens. The number of foreign-born people in the St. Cloud MSA nearly doubled over the last decade, from 3,880 people in 2000 to 7,376 in P A G E 5

6 Benton Stearns Table 6. IRS County Inflow and Outflow, Inflow Count Outflow Count Top 5 Counties Residents Moved From Top 5 Counties Residents Moved To Benton County 1,280 Benton County 1,298 Sherburne County 527 Sherburne County 620 Hennepin County 373 Hennepin County 595 Wright County 259 Wright County 365 Morrison County 180 Ramsey County 204 Top 5 Counties Residents Moved From Top 5 Counties Residents Moved To Stearns County 1,298 Stearns County 1,280 Sherburne County 184 Sherburne County 198 Hennepin County 115 Hennepin County 119 Morrison County 130 Mille Lacs County 80 Wright County 68 Morrison County 88 The Internal Revenue Service also provides migration data based on individual tax returns. Table 6 illustrates the inflow and outflow similarities between the two counties that create the St. Cloud MSA. Aside from the counties contained in the MSA Sherburne County provided the most new residents with 711 in Sherburne County also became the new home for 818 residents from the two counties in 2010, indicating a net loss of 107 residents. It should be noted that IRS migration data is subject to some nuances that can cause over and under representation of the actual inflow/outflow of people. IRS migration figures only include data from tax returns so certain categories of people are underrepresented, such as the poor and elderly. Race and Origin The St. Cloud MSA s population is diversifying much faster than the state. For instance, the rate of increase for Black or African Americans increased over four times faster than the state. Stearns and Benton County gained 16,018 white people from 2000 to 2013, a 9.9 percent increase, with white people still comprising almost 94 percent of the county s total population. The number of Black or African American residents tripled over the last decade (+282.7%), and now make up 3.7 percent of the MSA s population. Stearns and Benton County also saw rapid growth in the number of Asians over the last decade, adding half again as many in the last 13 years. With 5,017 people, the St. Cloud MSA has a lower percentage of Hispanic or Latino residents than the state, but did experience a rapid 135 percent increase over the last decade. None of the minority categories are more concentrated in the St. Cloud MSA than in Minnesota, which is less diverse than the U.S. (See Table 7.) St. Cloud MSA Change Minnesota Table 7. Race and Origin, 2013 Count Percent Numeric Percent Percent Change White 178, % +16, % 87.8% +5.1% Black or African American 7, % +5, % 6.3% +67.1% American Indian and Alaska Native 1, % % 1.9% +24.7% Asian 4, % +1, % 4.8% +58.8% Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander % % 0.1% +12.3% Some other race 1, % % 1.7% +0.3% Hispanic or Latino origin 5, % +2, % 4.8% +79.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau P A G E 6

7 Income and Poverty Statistics According to data from the Census Bureau s American Community Survey, at $54,015 the St. Cloud MSA had a lower median household income than the state, which was at $59,836 in About 21.7 percent of households in the St. Cloud MSA were earning less than $25,000 in 2013, and another 24.8 percent earned between $25,000 and $50,000. Combined, about 46.5 percent of the households in Stearns and Benton County earned less than $50,000 per year, as compared to about 41.9 percent in the state. (See Figure 3.) Figure 4 illustrates a slightly St. Cloud MSA Minnesota St. Cloud MSA Minnesota Figure Household Income 21.7% 19.4% 24.8% 22.5% 19.1% 20.2% P A G E % 27.6% Under $25,000 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $149,000 $150,000 or more 5.6% 9.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 12.1% 11.2% 24.8% 22.5% 20.2% 19.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Figure Family Income 36.4% 36.5% Under $25, % 19.0% 22.6% 20.0% $75,000 to $149,000 $150,000 or more 7.7% 13.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS different variation of income distribution known as family income. Family income includes only households that consist of a family (two or more related persons living together) whereas household income consists of all people who occupy a housing unit regardless of relation, including single people. This is why family income statistics are always higher than household income figures. While the amount of families earning less than $25,000 is much less than households it s still higher than the state s share. The largest difference of income distribution between the St. Cloud MSA and Minnesota is at the very highest incomes. The share of families earning over $150,000 per year or more is 6.7 percent higher in Minnesota compared to the St. Cloud MSA. This income distribution pattern allows less income inequality and a low Gini index. The St. Cloud MSA had a slightly lower percentage of households (2.8%) receiving cash public assistance than the state (3.5%), and about the same percentage of households receiving food stamp/snap benefits in the last 12 months, at 8.1 percent (vs. 8.2% in the state).

8 According to 2013 data from the U.S. Census Bureau s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program, Stearns and Benton County had a slightly higher poverty rate at 12.7% and 11.9% respectively, than the state of Minnesota (11.2%). The rate of poverty in Stearns County peaked in 2011 at 13.5% and has continued to decline through Benton County poverty peaked earlier in 2009 at 12.2%. Both the MSA and the State have significantly lower rates of poverty than the 2013 national level of 22.2%. Stearns and Benton County saw increases in poverty from 2000 to 2013, jumping from 6.2 and 6.7 percent in 2000, respectively. Poverty rates for youth under the age of 18 were 14.3% in Benton County and 12.6% in Stearns while Minnesota stands at 14%. These rates calculate to about 5,622 impoverished youth in the St. Cloud MSA. Education Student enrollment in the St. Cloud MSA has steadily increased in the last decade with only a minor lapse as recent as From 2008 to 2015 total student enrollment has increased 6.7 percent with very high growth in the younger classes. 12 th and 11 th grade enrollment has declined by over 6 percent during that same period from a few years of smaller class sizes. In the last year student enrollment is up by 720 over 2014 s count and by examining younger grade enrollment it appears the trend will continue for at least another decade. (See Table 8.) Table 8. St. Cloud MSA Student Enrollment, Grade PK % KG 2,038 2,083 2,116 2,162 2,396 2,277 2,263 2, % 01 2,095 2,017 2,109 2,060 2,120 2,315 2,282 2, % 02 2,040 2,061 2,007 2,138 2,092 2,142 2,300 2, % 03 2,008 2,080 2,081 2,049 2,145 2,092 2,153 2, % 04 1,947 2,000 2,093 2,145 2,027 2,128 2,126 2, % 05 1,973 1,952 2,012 2,133 2,163 2,047 2,119 2, % 06 1,982 1,995 1,953 2,043 2,140 2,176 2,118 2, % 07 2,195 2,150 2,192 2,118 2,294 2,306 2,372 2, % 08 2,280 2,196 2,150 2,210 2,163 2,291 2,333 2, % 09 2,300 2,311 2,255 2,198 2,225 2,166 2,349 2, % 10 2,324 2,278 2,284 2,258 2,206 2,240 2,210 2, % 11 2,384 2,314 2,261 2,295 2,246 2,195 2,256 2, % 12 2,576 2,507 2,514 2,485 2,440 2,380 2,366 2, % All Grades 28,582 28,425 28,549 28,823 29,193 29,305 29,789 30, % Source: Minnesota Department of Education Further examination of the student base shows a dramatic shift occurring in student demographics. Stearns and Benton County have defined, but somewhat different demographic trends occurring the k-12 school system. Declines in White student enrollment are more than offset by increases in Black students alone. Both counties are experiencing increasing diversity from minority enrollment growth in nearly every grade since By 2015 one-in-five students are minority up from about one-inten in (See Table 9.) Table 9. St. Cloud MSA Student Enrollment Change, '08-'15 American Indian % Asian Pacific Islander % Black 2, % Hispanic % White % Minority 2, % Source: Minnesota Department of Education P A G E 8

9 Benton County has increased total student enrollment my 11.9 % from 2008 to 2015, however white student enrollment growth was a sluggish 8.4% relative to minority enrollment increase of 76.6%. The largest growth is in Hispanic students increasing 173% from from an additional 95 students. Although the most growth was by Hispanics, black enrollment, the largest minority students population, also increased significantly (+77.3%) to 195 in From 2008 to 2015 white enrollment still added the most students (+431) and accounts for 91.7% of students in 2015 versus 94.7% just seven years earlier. Stearns County enrollments follow a similar but more dramatic shift, total enrollment increased 5.5% while minority enrollment increased by 92.5% with white enrollment actually decreasing by -6.9% (-1,393) from Enrollment of white students has been steadily declining and by 2015 has nearly 1,400 less white students than reported in Minority enrollment has increased dramatically with 2,670 more minority students in 2015 than in Black student enrollment increased the fastest and the most with an additional 1,949 students and a growth rate of 140%. The distribution of enrollment has changed from White student enrollment at 87.5% in 2008 to 77.2% in Meanwhile the share of Black students has increased from 6% to 13.7%. (See Figure 5.) Educational attainment for the St. Cloud population is concentrated Table 10. Educational Attainment, Ages 18 Years and Older, in the middle levels of education St. Cloud MSA Benton Stearns Minnesota with almost a third having some Count Percent Percent Percent Percent kind of college including a Total Population 145, % 100% 100% 100% certificate. With over 11,000 Less than 12th grade, no diploma people lacking a high school 11, % 8.5% 7.9% 7.7% High school graduate, GED diploma the share of population 41, % 33.3% 27.0% 26.8% with the lowest educational Some college, no degree 45, % 26.9% 32.4% 25.0% attainment is slightly higher than Associate's degree 16, % 11.7% 11.0% 9.7% the state. Bachelor's degree 20, % 13.4% 14.7% 20.6% Although there are numerous 4- Graduate or professional degree 8, % 5.4% 6.2% 9.4% year educational institutions the Source: American Community Survey, share of people over 18 with a bachelor s degree or more is relatively low compared to the state. (See Table 10.) P A G E 9

10 4.7% 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 5.7% 7.9% 7.5% 6.5% 5.6% 5.1% 4.2% 101, , , , , , , , , , ,225 Minnesota Labor Force As the demographics shift and baby boomers eventually phase out of the labor force the state and MSA will need to utilize every available piece of labor to meet the demands of an expanding economy. The labor force participation rate is a commonly used measure to gauge labor utilization by determining what share of the total population, age 16 years and older, who are either working or actively seeking work. Minnesota consistently ranks in the top 5 in the nation with a 2013 rate of 70.3 percent while the St. Cloud MSA is even higher at 72.1 percent. With the exception of a lingering recession impact in 2010 the labor force has been growing in the St. Cloud MSA (+7.1%) over twice as fast as Minnesota s (3.3%) from 2004 to In general Central Minnesota has shown very high rates of growth as St. Cloud and the Twin Cities continues to fuel a large demand for labor, much of it residing in collar counties. (See Figure 6.) 3,000,000 2,980,000 2,960,000 2,940,000 2,920,000 2,900,000 2,880,000 2,860,000 2,840,000 2,820,000 Figure 6. Labor Force, ,000 St. Cloud MSA Minnesota 108, , , , ,000 98, Source: DEED, LAUS program St. Cloud MSA With an additional 7,241 available workers in the last ten years St. Cloud companies have benefited from slightly higher unemployment rates helping prevent upward pressure on wages. Figure 7 illustrates a very similar but typically higher unemployment rate for the St. Cloud MSA compared to Minnesota. The 2014 annual rate in the St. Cloud MSA was 4.2%, just barely higher than the 4.1% state rate. While the unemployment rate peaked Figure 7. Unemployment Rates, at 7.9 percent in 2009 the current rate, 9% close to 4 percent, roughly matches St. Cloud MSA Minnesota 8% the pre-recession years. High rates of 7% labor force growth are absorbed by St. 6% Cloud and the Twin Cities and prevent a corresponding unemployment rate 5% increase during typical business cycles P A G E % 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: DEED, LAUS program Also worth noting is the elevated rate of unemployment for youth aged 16 to 19 (18%), Black or African Americans (23%), Hispanics (14%), and those with less than a H.S. diploma (21%). Demographic unemployment

11 data is provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and is only available for the St. Cloud MSA using a five year estimate, most currently This lag in data reporting needs to be taken into account because of the adverse impacts of the recession on the average rate unemployment rates for the groups mentioned above are likely to be significantly lower. Commute and Labor Shed Although there is much discussion about resident labor leaving the St. Cloud MSA to capture higher wages in the TC Metro, its actually a net labor importer, meaning there is a larger labor force working in the St. Cloud MSA than actually live there. In fact, 71.7 percent of St. Cloud MSA workers both live and work in Stearns and Benton Counties. Slightly more than 31,000 workers commute into the MSA from other counties for jobs while about 26,000 workers living in the MSA leave for jobs in nearby counties. Note that the 2012 labor force estimates in this dataset is different than the 2012 estimate in Figure 6 because of differences in data collection and methodology. Figure 8. Commuting Pattern and Labor Shed Table 11. St. Cloud MSA Commute and Labor Shed, 2012 Commute Pattern: Where St. Cloud MSA Workers are Live Labor Shed: Where St. Cloud MSA Workers are Employed Geography Count Share Geography Count Share Total, All Jobs 97, % Total, All Jobs 92, % Stearns County 52, % Stearns County 54, % Benton County 13, % Benton County 11, % Sherburne County 5, % Hennepin County 6, % Morrison County 3, % Sherburne County 2, % Wright County 2, % Ramsey County 2, % Hennepin County 2, % Wright County 1, % Todd County 1, % Morrison County 1, % Meeker County 1, % Kandiyohi County % Mille Lacs County 1, % Douglas County % Kandiyohi County 1, % Anoka County % All Other Locations 12, % All Other Locations 8, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Aside from residents of the St. Cloud MSA, Table 11 provides context to where this incoming labor force is coming from; Sherburne and Morrison County are home to over 8,000 people working in the St. Cloud MSA. Reverse commuters, those commuting from the twin cities for work, hold roughly 2.4% of jobs in the St. Cloud MSA. About 1-in-5 jobs are filled by workers commuting into the MSA are from adjacent counties. The workers leaving the St. Cloud MSA for jobs are concentrated heavily in Hennepin County (6.9% of workers) as well as the expanding economies in Wright and Sherburne counties. Almost one- in- five workers living in the St. Cloud MSA work in a county other than Stearns and Benton. P A G E 11

12 Cost of Living Many residents live in rural counties including parts of the Stearns and Benton Counties and commute to the Twin Cities for various reasons, many of which are not easily quantifiable such as quality of life associated with small rural communities. One of the many reasons often cited for living in the St. Cloud MSA and commuting to the Twin Cities is the cheaper cost of living in the MSA. Thanks to a Cost Of Living tool (COLT) released in 2014 by DEED a uniform way of measuring county costs by family size and composition is possible. Monthly costs are based on seven major cost categories: Food, Housing, Healthcare, Transportation, Child Care, Other Necessities, and Net Taxes. The lifestyle created from the costs associated with the Cost of Living tool is neither one of poverty nor middle-class. It is assumed that the costs will provide a safe, healthy, sufficient living. The average Minnesota family will be used for statistics to generate the costs in this report. The average family consists of two adults, one working full-time, one working part-time, and one child. Table Cost Of Living, 2 Adults (one working FT and one PT), and 1 Child County Rank Yearly Cost Hourly Wage Child Care Food Health Care Housing Transportation Other Taxes Benton 43 $42,949 $13.77 $214 $743 $391 $742 $1,004 $208 $277 Stearns 44 $42,850 $13.73 $250 $742 $947 $742 $947 $210 $274 Twin Cities EDR NA $55,896 $17.92 $602 $783 $411 $1,022 $1,037 $252 $551 Source: DEED Cost of Living (COL) program Both Stearns and Benton County fall into the very middle of the distribution, with Benton being the 43 rd most expensive and Stearns the 44 th most expensive of 87 counties in the state. The cost needed to sustain a family of three is very similar in both Benton and Stearns County at $42,949 and $42,850 respectively (See Table 12). Table 13. Cost of Living, 2015 Single, Two Working Adults, 1 FT and One PT County No Children No Children 1 Child 2 Children 3 Children 4 Children Benton $22,643 $33,583 $42,949 $51,926 $54,781 $57,610 Stearns $22,494 $33,100 $42,850 $53,299 $56,050 $58,910 Percent Increase Benton - 48% 28% 21% 5% 5% Stearns - 47% 29% 24% 5% 5% Source: DEED Cost of Living (COL) program P A G E 12 As families expand and expenses start adding up it can be difficult to accurately estimate budgets and lay the foundation for solid financial planning. Not surprisingly, the largest cost increase is found with the addition of the first child in the very beginning stages of family creation. Costs increases by almost 50% for singles moving into the partnered, no children phase, however the hourly wage needed remains nearly constant for both adults. The addition of the first child increases costs by over 25 percent and the second child increases costs by just slightly less. The critical factor driving costs at such rates for the first and second child is child care and housing. There is an additional bedroom for the first child and, assuming a different gender and reasonable age gap, assigns a third bedroom for the second child. Child care remains static after the 2 nd child as it is assumed that by the time the third child enters the family the first will be enrolled in school and with one adult working part time no additional child care expenses would be incurred. Housing costs also remain static due to children three and four being able to share a room with children one and two. After the second child the largest driver of increased cost is from increased food expense (See Table 13). The costs generated by the Cost of Living tool underscore the importance of understanding personal finances for new and merging families.

13 Regional Salary Survey Results Median wages in the St. Cloud MSA fall in the middle of the distribution across the MSA s in the state. Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA has the highest median wages; much of this is driven by corporate locations and a larger share of occupations at the top end of the income distribution. St. Cloud MSA accounts for roughly 3.7% of all employment in the state. (See Figure 9). Median hourly wages in the St. Cloud area (including Sherburne and Wright Counties) have been steadily increasing but still remain nearly four dollars per hour below the closest competing labor market, the Minneapolis-St. Paul Economic Development Region. Since 2006 median wages for all occupations have increased 18.2% in the St. Cloud area, slightly outpacing Minneapolis- St. Paul s 15.7% increase, however both regions areas have failed to keep pace with inflation which was 18.4% during the same period. Although the median wage for the entire range of occupations is about 20 percent less in the St. Cloud MSA than in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA, there are pockets of jobs that have significantly higher wages, these include many occupations in the medical field; dentists, RN s, physician assistants, pharmacy technicians, and medical sonographers to name a few. While wages garnish a lot of attention, much of the reasons for lower wages in the St. Cloud MSA compared to the Minneapolis- St. Paul MSA are due to the distribution of jobs. All but two of the main occupational groups that have a higher concentration in St. Cloud than the Twin Cities have lower median wages. This affects broad wage comparisons between the two regions and more detailed analysis needs to be completed to truly understand the wage gap. The largest difference in occupational density is found in production jobs. One out of every nine jobs in the St. Cloud MSA in production, 4% more than the Twin Cities. Also noteworthy is the large concentration of jobs in the healthcare fields, both practitioners and support types. Managers enjoy the highest median wages and food prep and serving jobs provide the lowest median wages. Employers competing for labor with the Twin Cities MSA has some clear disadvantages when examining the highest paid occupational groups such as management and legal where the gap between the two MSA s is substantial (See Table 14). P A G E 13

14 Table 14. Occupational Employment Statistics, 1st Qtr MSA Comparison Saint Cloud MSA Minneapolis/St. Paul MSA Share Occupation Jobs Share of Jobs Median Wage Share of Jobs Median Wage of Jobs Median Wage Total, All 100, % $ % $ % -$3.51 Architecture and Engineering % $ % $ % -$6.66 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1, % $ % $ % -$5.56 Building/Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 3, % $ % $ % $0.60 Business and Financial Operations 3, % $ % $ % -$5.51 Community and Social Services 1, % $ % $ % $1.18 Computer and Mathematical 1, % $ % $ % -$9.53 Construction and Extraction 4, % $ % $ % -$6.00 Education, Training, and Library 6, % $ % $ % -$3.56 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry % $ % $ % $0.55 Food Preparation and Serving Related 8, % $ % $ % -$0.18 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7, % $ % $ % -$0.61 Healthcare Support 3, % $ % $ % -$0.83 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 4, % $ % $ % -$2.74 Legal % $ % $ % -$9.70 Life, Physical, and Social Science % $ % $ % -$0.57 Management 4, % $ % $ % -$12.05 Office and Administrative Support 15, % $ % $ % -$3.00 Personal Care and Service 4, % $ % $ % -$0.36 Production 11, % $ % $ % -$1.41 Protective Service % $ % $ % $3.49 Sales and Related 9, % $ % $ % -$2.84 Transportation and Material Moving 7, % $ % $ % -$0.85 Source: DEED, Occupational Employment Statistics, OES program Industry Employment Statistics Job growth has been steadily growing for the last 36 years and has outpaced Minnesota job growth by 61%. From 1978 to 2014 the St. Cloud MSA employment grew by 131% while Minnesota employment growth increased by 70%. Despite five years of negative job growth the St. Cloud MSA has 56,776 more jobs in 2014 than in In the last ten years job growth for the MSA was 8.7% compared to 4.9% for the state. Much of this growth can be correlated to a faster population and labor force growth than the state (See Figure 10). P A G E 14

15 Table 15. St. Cloud MSA Industry Statistics 2011 to 2014 Industry Title Number Number Average Annual Firm Job % Job of Firms of Jobs Wage Total Payroll Change Change Change Total, All Industries 5, ,065 $40,103 $4,016,544, , % Accommodation and Food Services 412 7,637 $12,849 $98,331, % Admin. Support and Waste Management 206 5,283 $27,044 $142,662, % Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 100 1,073 $30,893 $33,188, % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 121 1,127 $12,293 $13,546, % Construction 675 5,667 $54,523 $309,282, , % Educational Services 101 8,523 $43,189 $367,212, % Finance and Insurance 306 3,427 $56,841 $194,833, % Health Care and Social Assistance ,304 $48,410 $886,792, , % Information 70 1,832 $51,686 $94,728, % Management of Companies and Enterprises $86,534 $61,071, % Manufacturing ,259 $44,508 $679,707, % Mining $59,150 $7,179, % Other Services 529 2,796 $25,572 $71,599, % Professional, Scientific, and Tech. Services 314 2,401 $54,779 $131,502, % Public Administration 94 3,118 $52,279 $163,111, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 179 1,169 $27,761 $32,481, % Retail Trade ,194 $25,703 $339,567, % Transportation and Warehousing 242 3,986 $42,100 $167,881, % Wholesale Trade 230 4,222 $48,127 $203,355, % Source: DEED, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program Through 2014 the St. Cloud MSA was home to almost 5,200 employers providing the region with more than $4 billion in wages. The largest employing industry is health care and social assistance with 18,304 jobs at 458 establishments, while construction has the largest amount of business at 675 establishments (See Table 15). In the last three years the MSA has added nearly 5,000 net new jobs, a growth rate of 5.2%, slightly faster than the growth of the state (4.8%). Only the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry has lost jobs since 2011 while nine of the nineteen industry sectors have decreased the amount of business establishments. The largest growth was found in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry at 39.5% from 2011 to Nearly all job growth within that sector was concentrated in the animal production sub-sector. The Great Recession created three years of job losses from 2008 through 2010 and by the time the economy stabilized in 2011, almost 3,300 (-3.4%) jobs were lost in the St. Cloud MSA. Manufacturing lost the most jobs during the recession and shed just over 2,400 jobs from , followed by retail trade which lost -780 jobs. Total employment peaked in 2007 for the St. Cloud MSA with 98,412 jobs and 7 years later a new employment peak finally emerged in Eleven of the nineteen major industry sectors have exceeded pre-recession employment levels while eight remain below 2007 employment levels. Manufacturing has 2,047 less jobs in 2014 than in 2007 followed by accommodation and food service (-559), retail trade (-293), and wholesale trade (-283). P A G E 15

16 Table 16. St. Cloud MSA Businesses by Size Class, 2012 Total Establishments 5, % 1 to 4 employees 2, % 5 to 9 employees % 10 to 19 employees % employees % employees % employees % employees % 500 employees or more % Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns Much like Minnesota the St. Cloud MSA employer distribution is very concentrated with small employers. In fact about 84 percent of all employers in the St. Cloud MSA employ less than 20 people. Although large employers are an anchor to the regional economy providing many jobs, from an employer standpoint they are exceptionally rare. Less than 1% of employers in the St. Cloud MSA employ 250 people or more. However, compared to the state of Minnesota, the St. Cloud MSA has a smaller share of the smallest employers (1 to 4 employees) and slightly more in the mid-sized employers (5 to 100). The St. Cloud MSA has a few notable distinguished industries. Distinguished industries are defined as those with better-thanaverage share of statewide employment. The MSA represents 3.7% of total statewide employment. However the St. Cloud MSA has over 13% of transportation equipment manufacturing and 12.5% of statewide nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing, no doubt the result of a long history of granite mining in the region. Notable companies such as New Flyer boost transportation equipment mfg., Spee-Dee contributes to truck transportation, and Stearns (now owned by Coleman) a nationally recognized life jacket brand helps boost the textile product mill industry employment to large shares of statewide employment (See Figure 11). P A G E 16

17 Also important to the regional economy are the self-employed (non-employers). With 12,857 self-employed individuals providing the MSA with more than $600 million in sales this group creates a significant amount of economic activity. The largest self-employed industry is other services, the industry title eludes to a broad range of businesses classified here and includes; repair and maintenance shops, personal and laundry services, funeral services, and pet care services, sans veterinary. Although the other services has the most amount of self-employed people, the largest sales receipts are found in the real estate, rental, and leasing industry with Table 17. St. Cloud MSA Non-Employer Statistics, Industry Title Non-Employers Sales Receipts Change Total for all sectors 12,857 $607,584, Other services 1,719 $46,249, Real estate and rental and leasing 1,633 $179,360, Retail trade 1,556 $52,057, Construction 1,355 $79,239, Health care and social assistance 1,301 $35,649, Professional, scientific, and tech. services 1,283 $35,297, Transportation and warehousing 887 $75,075, Admin. support and waste management 768 $14,052, Arts, entertainment, and recreation 693 $13,156, Finance and insurance 419 $27,309,000 0 Educational services 302 $3,739, Manufacturing 253 $11,204, Wholesale trade 215 $18,909, Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 192 $5,285, Information 147 $4,915,000-5 Accommodation and food services 122 $5,014,000 8 Utilities 4 $429,000-1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Nonemployer Statistics almost $180 million in 2013 sales. This industry also has the highest average gross income at $109,835 in The effects of the recession still lingers as there are -373 less self-employed construction workers in 2013 than in 2007(See Table 17). Table 18. St. Cloud MSA Agriculture Statistics, 2012 St. Cloud MSA Share of Minnesota Farms 4, % Land Acres in Farms 946, % Market Value of Ag. Products Sold $976,000, % Total, Livestock and Poultry Farms farms 2, % inventory 275, % Beef cows farms % inventory 17, % Milk cows farms % inventory 81, % Cattle and calves sold farms 2, % inventory 127, % Hogs and pigs inventory farms % inventory 133, % Hogs and pigs sold farms % inventory 363, % Sheep and lambs inventory farms % inventory 2, % Layers inventory farms % inventory 1,110, % Broilers and other meat-type chickens sold farms % inventory 17,519, % Source: USDA, 2012 Census of Agriculture No economic discussion about Central Minnesota, including the St. Cloud MSA would be complete without acknowledging the pivotal role that farms have on the region. In fact Stearns County continues to be the top county in the state in agricultural sales with $808,498,000 in The St. Cloud MSA is home to 4,450 farms with 946,372 acres in farming operations. The combined counties have gross agricultural sales of $976 million in Small dairy and beef operations are common with18% of the state s milk cows but 20% of the dairy farms and less than 5% of the state s beef inventory but 7% of beef farms. The opposite distribution is found in broiler chicken farms, Stearns and Benton County combined have only 10% of the state s broiler farms yet they account for 39% of the broiler chicken inventory. The highly concentrated broiler chicken industry in the St. Cloud MSA helps Minnesota rank 18 th in the nation in broiler chicken production. P A G E 17

18 Occupations in Demand in Region 7W (Stearns, Benton, Sherburne, and Wright Counties) Based on the number of current job vacancies, unemployment insurance claims, and future employment projections, DEED s Occupations in Demand (OID) dataset provides a listing of job opportunities in high demand now while also displaying the typical wage, long-term employment outlook, the typical training (or degree) required to work in a field, and information on related training programs offered around the state. This list is helpful to jobseekers/counselors that are looking for available employment in the region, as well as economic development professionals, educational institutions. Table Occupations In Demand, Region 7W High School Diploma or Less Certificate or Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher Occupation Median Wage Occupation Median Wage Occupation Combined Food Prep. and Serving Workers $18,140 Computer User Support Specialists $42,823 Training and Development Specialists $30,965 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers $21,152 Registered Nurses $79,709 Nurse Practitioners $100,639 Cashiers $18,601 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $40,863 Family and General Practitioners $185,230 Construction Laborers $38,948 Nursing Assistants $27,450 Physical Therapists $78,572 Customer Service Representatives $28,105 Licensed Practical and Vocational Nurses $39,411 Software Developers, Applications $69,371 Personal Care Aides $22,335 Medical Assistants $31,343 Industrial Engineers $75,182 Home Health Aides $23,084 Hairdressers and Cosmetologists $20,834 Accountants and Auditors $59,777 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation $28,040 First-Line Supervisors of Production $53,482 Speech-Language Pathologists $65,831 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers $26,948 Surgical Technologists $50,366 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other $189,461 Laborers and Freight, Stock, Movers $24,310 Computer Network Support Specialists $62,032 Secondary Teachers, Except Special and Care $63,192 Retail Salespersons $20,273 Respiratory Therapists $64,236 Computer Systems Analysts $60,727 Packers and Packagers, Hand $19,741 Web Developers $60,352 Computer Network Architects $76,514 Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers $25,150 Computer/Automated Teller Rep $34,487 Network & Computer Systems Administrators $64,360 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers $38,296 First-Line Supervisors of Fire Fighting $74,596 Computer Programmers $55,028 Carpenters $43,324 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians $28,517 Child, Family, and School Social Workers $52,404 Source: DEED Occupations In Demand (OID) program Median Wage Table 19 displays the top 15 demanded occupations in each of the three main minimal education categories. The combined food prep. and serving workers are ranked as the most demanded occupation in the 4 county region, followed by RN and stock clerks and order fillers. The full list of occupations in demand contains 481 occupations, ranked by relative demand in the region. A full 42 percent of the most demanded occupations have minimum requirement of just a high school diploma or GED and another 13% can typically be held by a worker with less than a H.S. diploma or GED. In reality many of the occupations that have very low minimum educational requirements could certainly benefit from some type of additional training or certificate, however, as stated above these are minimum requirements. P A G E 18

19 When policy and strategy decisions are being made it is important to keep in mind the realities of the educational requirements for the most demanded jobs in the region. Although jobs requiring little education typically have much lower wages, they still need to be filled and present opportunities to job seekers with little education or experience. (See Figure 12.) Figure 12. Occupations In Demand, Region 7W Certificate or Associate Degree 14% Bachelors Degree 22% Masters Degree 5% Educational Attainment The labor force in the St. Cloud MSA is concentrated in the middle award levels compared to the state of Minnesota, with a higher share of the labor force holding a high school diploma/ged or some college including an associate s degree. Only 3.9% of the labor force has H.S. Diploma/GED 42% Less than H.S. Diploma 13% Doctorate or Professional Degree 5% not achieved a H.S. diploma or GED compared to 5% for the state and their rate of unemployment is lower than Minnesota. However, the unemployment rate for people without a H.S. diploma or GED is still about double the rate of the general population ages 25 to 64. Table 20. Educational Attainment of St. Cloud MSA Labor Force In Labor Force Employed Unemployment Rate Educational Attainment Estimate Percent Estimate Percent St. Cloud MSA MN Population 25 to 64 years 80, % 77, % 3.6% 4.5% Less than high school graduate 3, % 2, % 7.4% 11.4% High school graduate/ged 22, % 20, % 6.2% 6.0% Some college or associate's degree 34, % 33, % 3.1% 4.6% Bachelor's degree or higher 21, % 20, % 1.1% 2.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS year survey It s very likely that there are underlying barriers to employment for many of the individuals in this group, probably the same ones that contributed to dropping out of school. Many barriers (possibly social/behavioral disorders or generational poverty) that make graduating high school/ged difficult lead to a compounding problem as they try to gain entrance into the working labor force. This lack of employment reduces the utilization of available labor resources, and creates labor market inefficiency. The benefits of higher education are easily seen in Table 20, where people with a bachelor s degree or more have an unemployment rate hovering around 1%. Although workers in the St. Cloud MSA with a bachelor s degree or more have very favorable rates of unemployment, the rate of underemployment would be needed to complete the entire picture of workforce education and skills. It s possible and reasonable to assume that while nearly all 4-year or higher college graduates are employed, there are many graduates facing issues of underemployment, meaning they are working in a job that doesn t require their level of education. Factors that play into economic success of graduates mainly come down to how well their education aligns with the demands of their regional economy. P A G E 19