C E ONOMIC TRENDS

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC TRENDS

2 ECONOMIC TRENDS Unemployment % For LAHC, Rising Unemployment is associated with Rising Enrollment % % % % % 80.00% Unemployment Enrollment Sources: LACCD Office of Institutional Research; CA Economic Dev. Dept.

3 ECONOMIC TRENDS Changes in Industry What s Hot Source: EMSI Complete Employment 1st Quarter 2010

4 ECONOMIC TRENDS Changes in Industry What s Not Source: EMSI Complete Employment 1st Quarter 2010

5 ECONOMIC TRENDS Changes in Occupations What s Hot Source: EMSI Complete Employment 1st Quarter 2010

6 ECONOMIC TRENDS Changes in Occupations What s Not Source: EMSI Complete Employment 1st Quarter 2010

7 ECONOMIC TRENDS Unemployment and Educational Attainment In March 2009, the national unemployment rate was 8.5, 85 but Educational background is a major factor. Unemployment Rateby Educational Level, National Data, March Rate 5 0 Less than a high HS graduates, no Some college or Bachelor's degree school diploma college associate degree or higher Rate Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics;

8 ECONOMIC TRENDS Foreclosures surrounding the LAHC Area Housing Foreclosure Rates January 2010 National 0.25% California 0.54% L.A. County 0.48% Wilmington Torrance Signal Hill 0.00% 0.26% s su ou d g a eas San Pd Pedro 0.31% Palos Verdes Long Beach 0.18% 0.45% 0.47% Carson and Harbor City have the highest foreclosure rates within LAHC s surrounding areas. These rates are also higher compared to L.A. County and the State. Lomita 0.21% Harbor City 0.62% Gardena 0.46% Carson 0.82% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90% Source: March 8, 2010

9 ECONOMIC TRENDS SUMMARY High demand for classes will continue through at least Fall 2010 perhaps Spring Industrial and Occupational Projections are still impacted by the recession and should be examined carefully. Education remains the best defense against unemployment. 9

10 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 10

11 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Numbers Los Angeles County is projected to grow by 7%, the state is projected to grow by 13%. A year ago, the percentages were 4 and 7% respectively Percent Chang ge Los Angeles Co. CA Year Source: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties

12 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS High School Seniors The number of High School Seniors in our Service Area will peak in 2010 and then decline HS Seniors Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information

13 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Age Distribution LA County s population is aging 2,500 2,000 Thous sands 1,500 1, Under 5 5 to 9 10 to to19 20 to over 60 Source: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California i and Its Counties

14 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Age Distribution Alternate View LA County s population is aging 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 Percent Change 15 to to Percent Change 18% 0% 15% 19% 5% 43% 30% 7% 26% 17% 0% 20% 37% over 60 Source: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties

15 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity Ethnicity In LA County, current trends continue 6,000 5,000 Tho ousands 4,000 3,000 2, Population 2020 Population 1,000 0 White Hispanic Asian Pac. Islander Black Am. Indian Multirace Source: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties

16 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity Alternate t View In LA County, current trends continue Pe ercnet Change White Hispanic Asian Pac. Islander Black Am. Indian Multirace % change Source: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties

17 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS While Our Service Area Population is Aging, Ai our Students t Are Not 3,500 3,000 2,500 Number of Studen nts 2,000 1,500 1, Concurrent H.S. Under and over ,069 2,092 1,672 1, ,069 3,035 1,871 1,551 Age Source: LACCD Office of Institutional i Research and Information, Information Digest, February h d / h/

18 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS So, putting the two together, you get something like this 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% and over Fall 2009 students 32% 22% 20% 16% LA County, % 9% 16% 64% LA County, % 9% 20% 63% Sources: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009, and Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity for California and Its Counties

19 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Foreclosures surrounding the LAHC Area Number of Housing Units Receiving a Foreclosure Filing January 2010 Source: March 8, 2010 Carson 1 in 122 Gardena 1 in 216 Harbor City 1 in 161 Lomita 1 in 475 Long Beach 1 in 220 Palos Verdes 1 in 556 San Pedro 1 in 326 Signal Hill 0 Torrance 1 in 379 Wilmington 1 in 212 L.A. County 1 in 208 California 1 in 185

20 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY Over the next 10 years, the population in LA county is projected to grow by 7%, the state will grow by 13%. Over the next 10 years, the population in LA County will age and the number of people in the age groups of traditional college students will decline. The percentage of Hispanics/Latinos and Asians will increase, while the percentage of whites and African Americans will decrease. Although the 6 month foreclosure trend has been falling, the economic effects and demographic decline willcontinue in the next several years.

21 TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

22 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Data from the 2009 Student Survey at Los Angeles Harbor College: More than 88% of our students often or sometimes use a computer at home to do school work. Almost 85% often or sometimes use the Internet for an assignment. Another 85% utilized the Internet to apply register check Another 85% utilized the Internet to apply, register, check grades, and add or drop classes.

23 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (2004): 90% of children between ages 5 and 17 use computers. 94% of online teens use the Internet for school related research. The largest group of new users of the Internet from were 2 5 year olds. About 25% of all K 12 public schools now offer some form of e About 25% of all K 12 public schools now offer some form of e learning or virtual school instruction. Within the next decade every state and most schools will be doing so.

24 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (2004): Today s students are very technology savvy, feel strongly about the positive value of technology and rely upon technology as an essential and preferred component of every aspect of their lives. Students are not just using technology differently today but are approaching their lives and their daily activities differently because of the technology. As students get older, their use of technology becomes more sophisticated, but, comparatively, the younger students are on a fast track to becoming greater technology users and advocates. The access point for technology use, particularly for older students, is home focused, not school focused.

25 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpt from the National Education Technology Plan (2010): Just as technology is at the core of virtually every aspect of our daily lives and work, we must leverage it to provide engaging and powerful learning experiences, content, and resources and assessments that measure student t achievement in more complete, lt authentic, ti and meaningful ways. Technology based learning and assessment systems will be pivotal in improving student learning and generating data that can be used to continuously improve the education system at all levels.

26 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES TRENDS LAUSD Instructional ti Technology Plan Strategic planning goals for the Instructional Technology Planning project are offered below: Curriculum Identify student technology standards and deliver them equitably to all students. Identify and implement approaches for using technology resources to support the District ss goals and learning priorities. Establish electronic access to appropriate informational and learning resources from school to homes and community centers. Provide e learning opportunities for remediation, acceleration, and possible reduction of class size.

27 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES TRENDS Growth in Online Programs Five colleges in the LACCDare now offering online degrees. 74% of the US colleges surveyed in the 2008 Distance Education Survey offer online degrees. More Los Angeles Harbor College students who transfer to private colleges/universities in California transfer to the University of Phoenix than any other private college or university.

28 TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS SUMMARY Almost90% of our students use computers for school work. 90% of children and teenagers use computers. They rely upon technology as an essential and preferred component of every aspect of their lives. Even LAUSD has a plan for integrating technology and e learning into their operations. Online Degree Programs are the fastest growing sector of higher education.

29 COMPETITION IN PHYSICAL SPACE

30 The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. The linked image cannot be Zip displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. The linked image cannot be Zip displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. COMPETITION OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA Service Areas Zip Codes w/ 1000 or more students codes w/ students codes w/ less than 200 students Service Area Boundary

31 The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and location. COMPETITION OUR PHYSICAL SC SERVICE AREA Students per 1000 residents Age 15 or older location. < >20 Service Area Boundary

32 OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools Feeder High Schools LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California Service Area Boundary

33 OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools and other Public Colleges Public Colleges Feeder High Schools LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California Service Area Boundary

34 OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools and Private Agencies that offer Educational Services Feeder High Schools Public Colleges LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California Private Agencies Service Area Boundary

35 COMPETITION IN PHYSICAL SPACE SUMMARY The Pacific Ocean to the west and south. Bigger colleges with lower over heads to the north and east. Hundreds of other organizations w/in our service area that offer education.

36 COMPETITION IN VIRTUAL SPACE

37 COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Moderate Growth in Online Classes 350 Percent Change in Online Enrollments Percent Change East Harbor Mission Trade Tech 100 LACCD CA cc's* 50 *Fall only Academic Year

38 COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Rapid Growth in Online Classes 2500 Percent Change in Online Enrollments Harbor CA cc's* City LACCD Pierce South west West Academic Year

39 COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Growth in Online Degrees Five colleges in the LACCD are now developing or offering online degrees. Seventy four percent of the colleges surveyed in the 2008 Distance Education Survey offer online degrees. More Los Angeles Harbor College students who transfer to private colleges/universities in California transfer to the University of Phoenix than any other private college or university.

40 COMPETITION IN VIRTUAL SPACE SUMMARY Online classes and degrees are the fastest growing part of higher h education (and soon, K 12 education). Our students see online programs as a viable choice in continuing their education. There will be increasing pressure to move from online There will be increasing pressure to move from online classes to a virtual campus.

41 ACCOUNTABILITY

42 PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARDS HIGHER EDUCATION From Squeeze Play 2010: Continued Public Anxiety on Cost, Harsher Judgments on How Colleges Are Run. Six out of ten Americans now say that colleges today operate more like a business, focused more on the bottom line than on the educational experience of students. Two Colliding Trends: A growing conviction about the necessity of a higher education for success in contemporary America. The belief that just as college has become more and more The belief that just as college has become more and more necessary, it is becoming less and less available to many qualified people.

43 PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARDS HIGHER EDUCATION CONSUMERISM From Drive-Through Education: Consumerism & Higher Education The vocation-focus of higher education has only increased, as have the levels l of consumerism and social demand d for education at the will and fingertips of the people. Students have become customers, and colleges have become vendors (O Meara, 2001). Students arrive on our campuses as consumers first and students second. Student customers rarely drive educational improvements because Student-customers rarely drive educational improvements because many are satisfied with the least demanding curriculum available for their dollar.

44 PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARDS HIGHER EDUCATION DEMANDS FOR ACCOUNTABILITY From the 2008 LACCD Strategic Plan: As public demand for access to higher education increases in response to increasing global competition, it is predicted that demands for public, data-driven driven forms of accountability will also increase. The final report of the 2006 Federal Commission on the Future of Higher Education recently echoed this trend by criticizing U.S. colleges for a remarkable lack of accountability and recommending the implementation of additional accountability reporting measures

45 PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARDS HIGHER EDUCATION DEMANDS FOR ACCOUNTABILITY Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (2010 ): Technology-based learning and assessment systems will be pivotal in improving student learning and generating data that can be used to continuously improve the education system at all levels. The model of 21st century learning requires new and better ways to measure what matters, diagnose strengths th and weaknesses in the course of learning With assessments in place that assess the full range of expertise and p g p competencies reflected in standards, student learning data can be collected and used to continually improve learning outcomes and productivity

46 ACCOUNTABILITY SUMMARY Public Anxiety has created two opposing concerns: 1) From the public: Access Value in terms of better life chances Less demanding curricula 2) Fromthe Government: Accountability evidence that colleges are about learning, not money Value More demanding curricula 46