Three trends in 2012:
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1 State of the 2012
2 Three trends in 2012: Gateway City economieshave persevered through challenging times Gateway City residentsare struggling, and they have not been able to obtain the educational credentials they will need to succeed in a changing economy While Gateway City local governments are starting to organize for success, they increasingly lack the fiscal capacity they will need to address challenges and realize opportunities
3 5% 1% 1% 0.6% 3% 3% -3% -2% -1% -5% - 5% 6% 2% 3% Massachusetts Most Gateway Cities are growing 1. Economies Population Change, Source: US Census Bureau
4 1. Economies Gateway Cities have lost just 1 percent of jobs 6% 4% Percent Change, Q Q % 2% -2% 5% 1% 2% -2% -1% -1% -4% -4% -4% -3% -3% -4% -6% Massachusetts Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
5 5% -5% - -8% -8% -12% -12% -23% -21% -19% -19% -17% -17% -15% -2-25% 3% -14% -13% Massachusetts Despite steep loses in manufacturing 1. Economies Percent Change, Q Q Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
6 2 18% 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 19% 18% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 8% Massachusetts Gateway Cities have diversified their economies 1. Economies Percent of jobs in manufacturing, Q Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
7 2 15% 14.5% 12.2% 12. 5% 10.7% % 9.9% 8.9% 8.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.1% 6.5% State Avg. 2. Residents Residents are struggling --unemployment is a serious challenge Percent Unemployed, December 2011 Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
8 2. Residents The gap between state and Gateway City unemployment is still significantly higher than pre-recession levels 16% Unemployment Rate Massachusetts 12% 8% +51% +36% 4% Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
9 2. Residents In many cities, nearly half of all residents are poor or working poor % 8% Ratio of income to poverty, % 24% 2 19% 19% 21% 2 16% 13% 13% 11% 11% 24% 21% 29% 21% 17% 17% 12% 4% 6% 6% 6% 8% 11% 8% 11% 12% 9% 13% 6% 5% Massachusetts Very Poor (<5 of poverty level) Poor (50-99% of poverty level) Working Poor (100 to 199% of poverty level) Source: American Community Survey
10 2. Residents Gateway City poverty rates have grown faster than the statewide average Percent of Population Poor or Working Poor 44% 41% 42% 35% 35% 36% 37% 36% 38% 33% 35% 29% 22% 24% 4 46% 5 51% 44% 46% 56% 51% 42% 38% 24% 22% Massachusetts Source: American Community Survey & Census 2000
11 2. Residents Gateway City residents have not received the education they will need to succeed 45% 4 Percent of Population Age 25 or Older with Bachelor s Degree or Higher 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% 11% 14% 14% 17% 18% 19% 21% 23% 26% 3 33% 21% 39% Massachusetts Source: American Community Survey
12 2. Residents The educational attainment gap is growing 5 Percent of Population Age 25 or Older with Bachelor s Degree or Higher % 14% 11% 11% 11% 15% 17% 18% 14% 19% 17% 15% 21% 18% 23% 21% 26% 3 23% 23% 33% 16% 21% 33% 39% Massachusetts Source: American Community Survey & Census 2000
13 2. Residents Gateway City students are behind by 3rd grade Percent of third graders scoring proficient or advanced on MCAS English Language Arts % 2 33% 36% 39% 39% % 45% 47% 4 21% State Avg. Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
14 2. Residents This stubborn gap has grown Percent Advanced or Proficient on 3rd Grade Reading, Gateway Avg Massachusetts +18 percentage points +21 percentage points Source: Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
15 2. Residents Many Gateway City students aren t finishing high school 9 Four-Year Graduation Rate, % 6 82% 75% 66% 66% 67% 69% 69% 71% 45% 63% 53% 53% 54% 47% 3 State Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
16 2. Residents Most aren t going on to four-year colleges 8 Plans of High School Graduates % 6 41% 27% 52% 37% 41% 46% 35% 52% 41% 43% % 59% 2 28% 3 45% 24% 39% 39% 34% 47% 3 43% 43% 36% State Four Year College Two Year College Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
17 3. Local governments Local governments need capacity to capture the potential in Gateway City assets Together, the 11 Gateway Cities can claim: 5 interstate highways 4 airports 11 CSX terminals 6 commuter rail stations 4 Amtrak stations 2 deepwater ports 29 hospitals 21 colleges & universities 3 national parks 1,000+ buildings on the national register of historic places
18 -7% -7% -7% -6% -6% -5% -5% -1% -12% % -4% State Avg. 3. Local governments Gateway City home values continue to slide Percent Change in home values, Source: zillow.com
19 -3% -2% -16% -15% -13% -13% -19% -18% - -22% -22% % -12% * State Avg. 3. Local governments Total valuation has declined significantly Percent Change, Source: Massachusetts Department of Revenue
20 3. Local governments Non-school aid has fallen by more than a third - Percent Change, FY09 - FY % -38% -38% -37% -36% -36% -35% -35% -35% -33% -32% -36% -36% State Avg. Source: Massachusetts Department of Revenue
21 3. Local governments Gateway Cities face over $2 billion in unfunded pension obligations 9 8 Percent of Pension Obligation Funded % 39% 42% 46% 46% 47% 51% 57% 57% 69% 76% 51% 81% Massachusetts Source: Public Employee Retirement Administration Commission, 2010 Annual Report
22 Unlocking the opportunity in Gateway Cities will require new approaches: 1. Gateway City coalition and network building 2. Community and economic development planning 3. Education and workforce development innovation 4. Transformative investments and neighborhood revitalization 5. Multimodal transportation investment For more on these strategies stay connected to MassINC throughout 2012
23 A snapshot of the Gateway Cities Population (2010) Number of Jobs (Dec. 2011) Median Household Income ( ) 93,810 36,491 $ 48,823 88,857 33,999 $32,913 40,318 12,326 $45,481 60,879 18,623 $59,051 39,880 21,857 $30,770 76,377 24,484 $30, ,519 33,579 $49,698 95,072 35,914 $34,893 44,737 24,824 $41, ,060 74,396 $36, ,045 95,598 $44,580
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