The Measure of Opportunity. A special Understanding Boston Series on Inequality, Prosperity, Well- Being & Boston s Future Mobility

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1 The Measure of Opportunity A special Understanding Boston Series on Inequality, Prosperity, Well- Being & Boston s Future Mobility

8 Median Household Income by Quintile 2000 $420,000 $320,000 $220,000 $120,000 $20,000 -$80,000 Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Highest Quintile Top 5 Percent Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

9 Median Household Income by Quintile 2000 v 2013 $420, % $320,000 $220,000 $120,000 $20, % -$80,000 Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Highest Quintile Top 5 Percent Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Su

10 Change in Households by Income Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or more Source: American Community Survey

11 AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD INCOME $47b $725m Source: American Community Survey, year estimates

12 CAN A CITY EXTEND THE BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC SUCCESS TO ALL OF ITS RESIDENTS & NEIGHBORHOODS?

13 CAN IT RETAIN A VIBRANT MIX OF INCOME, ETHNIC & AGE DIVERSITY EVEN AS IT ATTRACTS HIGHER INCOME RESIDENTS?

14 CAN IT CREATE PATHWAYS TO EDUCATIONAL & ECONOMIC SUCCESS FOR ALL ITS YOUNG PEOPLE?

15 WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO MAKE BOSTON AMERICA S MOST UPWARDLY MOBILE CITY?

17 OPPORTUNITY

18 PROSPERITY

19 WELL- BEING

20 SOCIAL & ECONOMIC MOBILITY

21 SOCIAL & ECONOMIC MOBILITY WHAT WE KNOW

22 100% 100% OPPORTUNITY AT BIRTH 67% 71% 68% 64% IMPACTS 59% 45% 49% 44% 43% 31% SUCCESS AT ADULTHOOD Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

23 100% 100% 67% 45% 71% 49% 59% 31% 68% 64% 44% 43% Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

24 100% 100% 67% 45% 71% 49% 59% 31% 68% 64% 44% 43% Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

25 100% 100% 67% 45% 71% 49% 59% 31% 68% 64% 44% 43% Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

26 100% 100% 67% 45% 71% 49% 59% 31% 68% 64% 44% 43% Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

27 100% 100% 67% 45% 71% 49% 59% 31% 68% 64% 44% 43% Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40 Advantaged at Birth Disadvantaged at Birth

28 GREATER MOBILITY LESS MOBILITY

29 Racial Segregation Commute Times Isolated Poverty Proximity to High Quality Schools Teen Labor Force Participation Social Capital Density of Single Parent Households

31 Middlesex County: +0.39% every year Suffolk County: -0.31% every year

32 2015 A BABY IS BORN IN BOSTON

33 2027 ENTERS 7 TH GRADE 2020 TURNS FIVE YEARS OLD

34 2039 STARTS A CAREER PATH 2038 COMPLETES COLLEGE 2033 GRADUATES HIGH SCHOOL

35 2055 ACHIEVES THE AMERICAN DREAM 2048 HAS A CHILD

37 EARLY OPPORTUNITY EDUCATION & SKILLS INEQUALITY & PLACES OF OPPORTUNITY INCOME, WEALTH, ASSETS JOBS & EMPLOYMENT

40 KEY INDICATOR: Healthy Birth Weight Percent of Babies Born at Low Birth Weight Boston % %

Early Education Opportunity : KEY INDICATOR Percent of 3 and 4 year-olds enrolled in school Boston 2000-2014 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

41 Early Education Opportunity : KEY INDICATOR Percent of 3 and 4 year-olds enrolled in school Boston % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Private Public 20% 10% 0% Between 0 and 49 Between 50 and 99 Between 100 and 199 Between 200 and 299 Between 300 and 399 Between 400 and Plus

45 WHAT MATTERS IN THE EDUCATION TO EMPLOYMENT PIPELINE?

46 Unemployment and Median Earnings by Educational Attainment $1,623 $1,714 PhD Professional 2.2% 2.3% $1,329 $1,108 Masters Bachelors 3.4% 4.0% $777 Associates 5.4% $727 Some College 7.0% $651 High School 7.5% $472 No High School 11.0% Median Weekly Earnings $827 All Workers 6.1% Unemployment Rate Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

47 Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree 5% 9% Top 20% 19% 18% Fourth 20% 22% 23% Middle 20% 21% 45% Second 20% Bottom 20% 22% 16% No Degree With Degree Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID

48 Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree Top 20% Fourth 20% Middle 20% Second 20% 45% Bottom 20% 16% No Degree With Degree Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID

49 Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree 5% Top 20% 19% Fourth 20% Middle 20% Second 20% Bottom 20% No Degree With Degree Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID

50 Change in Real Earnings by Educational Attainment % Men Women 16% 13% 7% 3% -12% -13% -20% Source: Brookings Institute, Hamilton Project, Occupational Employment Statistics

Spending on Educational Enrichment by Parent s Income $8,872 $3,536 $835 $1,315 1972-73

51 Spending on Educational Enrichment by Parent s Income $8,872 $3,536 $835 $1, Source: Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis [Robert D. Putnam)

52 Chances of Graduating College by 8 th Grade Math NAEP Scores 74% 51% 30% 29% 3% 8% Lowest Scores Middle Scores Highest Scores Source: Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis [Robert D. Putnam)

53 Percent of Children with a College Degree by Parents Income Quintile % 38% Total: 29% 20% 25% 11% Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID

54 College Attendance Rates for Children of Parents in the Bottom 25% Source: Raj Chetty, Equality of Opportunity Project

55 Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity Washington DC San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Dallas Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Seattle Miami Income Ratio of 90 th to 10 th percentile Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas

56 Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity Washington DC San Francisco 55.1% 53.0% 6.1 New York 44.7% 5.7 Boston 52.6% Los Angeles Dallas Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Seattle Miami 39.2% 39.3% 42.1% 38.2% 43.2% 48.9% 38.5% Income Ratio of 90 th to 10 th percentile % Associate s or Higher Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas

57 Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity Washington DC San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Dallas Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Seattle Miami 0.48 Income Ratio of 90 th to 10 th percentile Employment to Population Ratio Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas

58 Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity Washington DC San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Dallas Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Seattle Miami Income Ratio of 90 th to 10 th percentile Employment to Population Ratio 16 to 24 year olds Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas

59 EDUCATION & EMPLOYMENT

60 EDUCATION & SKILLS

61 EDUCATION & SKILLS Key Indicator SHARE OF ADULTS WITH AN ASSOCIATE S DEGREE OR HIGHER 35% 40.4% 48.9% 51.3% Source: 1990, 2000 Decennial Census; 2010, 2014 American Community Survet

62 EDUCATION & SKILLS

Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates 2001-2014 76% 64%

63 Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates % 64% 36% 37% 30% 20% 31% 28% 3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates 2001-2014 76% 64% 36% 37% 30% 20% 31% 28% 3rd grade reading 8th grade

64 Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates % 64% 36% 37% 30% 20% 31% 28% 3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

65 Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates % 64% 36% 37% 30% 20% 31% 28% 3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

BPS Four Year Graduation Rate by Race/Ethnicity 2006 & 2013 Asian Class of 2004 82.7 Class of 2013 87.6 White 70.

66 BPS Four Year Graduation Rate by Race/Ethnicity 2006 & 2013 Asian Class of Class of White African American Latino Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

67 BPS Annual Dropout Rate by Neighborhood 2008 Allston Back Bay / Kenmore Boston Central Brighton Charlestown Codman Square East Boston Fields Corner Grove Hall Hyde Park Jamaica Plain Mattapan Roslindale Roxbury Roxbury Crossing South Boston South End Uphams Corner West Roxbury 1.8% 3.0% 5.7% 4.5% 4.5% 8.0% 7.8% 6.5% 9.0% 7.9% 6.5% 7.4% 7.6% 5.8% 8.9% 7.1% 6.2% 8.4% 8.8% Source: Boston Public Schools

68 BPS Annual Dropout Rate by Neighborhood 2014 Allston Back Bay / Kenmore Boston Central Brighton Charlestown Codman Square East Boston Fields Corner Grove Hall Hyde Park Jamaica Plain Mattapan Roslindale Roxbury Roxbury Crossing South Boston South End Uphams Corner West Roxbury 0.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.4% 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 3.5% 4.7% 4.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.5% 3.1% 5.5% 4.8% 6.7% 3.5% 3.7% Source: Boston Public Schools

BPS Graduates College Enrollment Rates 2004-2012 84% 77% 60% 58% Class of 2012 50% 44% 68% 65% Class of

69 BPS Graduates College Enrollment Rates % 77% 60% 58% Class of % 44% 68% 65% Class of 2004 African American Latino White Asian Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

70 Boston Public School Graduates College Completion Classes of % 37% 39% 41% 45% Class of 2000 Class of 2007 Source: Success Boston

72 JOBS & EMPLOYMENT

JOBS & EMPLOYMENT Key Indicator UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 8.4 3.7 4.

73 JOBS & EMPLOYMENT Key Indicator UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

74 JOBS & EMPLOYENT

75 Labor Market by Occupation 34% 28% 22% 16% 13% 10% 17% 18% 21% Blue-Collar Service 17% 18% White-Collar 13% 44% 55% 60% 67% 69% 69% Source: Decennial Census; 2010, 2014 American Community Survey

Total Employment 2000-2015 360,000.00 340,000.00 320,000.00 300,000.00 280,000.00 260,000.

76 Total Employment , , , , , , , , , Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Change in Employment by Industry 2001 Q1 2015 Total Employment: +3% Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Professional and Business Services 35% 29% 11% 3% Trade,

77 Change in Employment by Industry 2001 Q Total Employment: +3% Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Professional and Business Services 35% 29% 11% 3% Trade, Transportation and Utilities Financial Activities Public Administration -13% -14% -17% Information Construction -29% -31% Manufacturing -58% Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor & Workforce Development ES202

Change in Employment by Occupation 2005-2014 Personal care and service Community and social services Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical Healthcare support Management

and media Sales and related Legal Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Architecture and engineering Transportation and material moving Installation, maintenance, and repair Production

78 Change in Employment by Occupation Personal care and service Community and social services Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical Healthcare support Management Healthcare practitioners and technical Life, physical, and social science Food preparation and serving related Protective service Education, training, and library Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media Sales and related Legal Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Architecture and engineering Transportation and material moving Installation, maintenance, and repair Production Construction and extraction Office and administrative support -0.8% -4.5% -8.7% -9.0% -9.4% 30.8% 26.4% 23.6% 21.9% 20.9% 20.5% 20.3% 16.6% 10.5% 8.2% 4.7% 2.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 50.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA

79 Work Experience by Weekly Hours Worked 29.8% 2.9% 12.4% 22.1% 4.9% 16.3% Did not Work 1 to 14 Hours 15 to 34 Hours 35 Hours or more 54.9% 56.7% Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

80 Work Experience by Weekly Hours Worked 29.8% 22.1% Did not Work 1 to 14 Hours 15 to 34 Hours 35 Hours or more Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

81 Change in Employment by Average Weekly Wages 2008 & 2014 Less than $718 12,706 $718 to $1,436 2,084 $1,436 to $2,154 8,849 $2,154 to $2,872-2,866 $2,872 or more -5,781 Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor & Workforce Development ES202

82 Median Annual Earnings, Fast-Growing Occupations 2014 $92,330 $73,820 $43,610 $26,180 Personal Care and Service Community and Social Service Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA

83 Median Annual Earnings at 10 th & 90 th Percentile 2014 $133,070 $147,600 $77,610 $48,490 $42,760 $52,380 $18,380 $25,390 Personal Care and Service Community and Social Service Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA

84 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY

INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Adults with and Associate s Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity 2000 & 2014 71.1% 49.0% 53.1% 40.7% 2000 21.8% 23.6% 19.4% 22.4% 27.9% 29.

85 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Adults with and Associate s Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity 2000 & % 49.0% 53.1% 40.7% % 23.6% 19.4% 22.4% 27.9% 29.9% 25.9% % Some Other Latino/ Hispanic African American Two or More Asian White Non-Latino Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

86 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Median Earnings for Full Time Workers 2000 & 2014 All 2000: $48,765 $56,406 $40,209 $40,154 $33,181 $37,630 $33,962 African American Asian Some Other Two or More Latino/ Hispanic White Non-Latino Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

87 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Median Earnings for Full Time Workers 2000 & 2014 $66,490 All 2014: $55,864 $51,876 $56,406 $41,700 $40,209 $40,154 $36,268 $33,181 $38,222 $37,630 $36,722 $33,962 African American Asian Some Other Two or More Latino/ Hispanic White Non-Latino Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey

INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Median Earnings for Full Time Workers gender gap 2014 $74,934 $61,191 $51,878 $60,579 $31,675 $36,099 $34,881 $22,271 $22,777 $17,629 Less than high

88 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Median Earnings for Full Time Workers gender gap 2014 $74,934 $61,191 $51,878 $60,579 $31,675 $36,099 $34,881 $22,271 $22,777 $17,629 Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree Source: 2014 American Community Survey

89 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Unemployment by Educational Attainment 2000 & % 12.2% 9.8% 3.2% Less than High School High School Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Or Higher

90 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Unemployment by Educational Attainment 2000 & % 17.8% 16.8% 16.2% 12.2% 9.8% 4.1% 3.2% Less than High School High School Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Or Higher

91 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment % 200% or Higher 62.0% 81.5% Near Poor 25.6% In Poverty 17.7% 28.8% 20.3% 8.7% 9.8% Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data

92 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000 & % or Higher 45.7% 39.6% 62.0% 54.9% 81.5% 81.8% Near Poor 25.6% 28.2% 18.5% In Poverty 17.7% 28.8% 32.2% 20.3% 26.6% 8.7% 9.8% 8.0% 10.2% Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data

INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000 & 2014 200% or Higher 45.7% 39.6% 62.0% 54.9% 81.5% 81.8% Near Poor 25.6% 28.2% 18.

93 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000 & % or Higher 45.7% 39.6% 62.0% 54.9% 81.5% 81.8% Near Poor 25.6% 28.2% 18.5% In Poverty 17.7% 28.8% 32.2% 20.3% 26.6% 8.7% 9.8% 8.0% 10.2% Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data

94 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Less than 20% Source: American Community Survey, year estimates Greater than 80%

95 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Less than 5% Source: American Community Survey, year estimates Greater than 25%

96 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Less than $25,000 Source: American Community Survey, year estimates Greater than $100,000

97 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY CHILD POVERTY Less than 5% Source: American Community Survey, year estimates Greater than 40%

98 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Young Adult Labor Force Participation Rate to 24 year olds to 19 year olds Source: American Community Survey

INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Young Adult Unemployment Rate 2005-2014 39.3 16 to 19 year olds 26.

99 INEQUALITY - OPPORTUNITY Young Adult Unemployment Rate to 19 year olds to 24 year olds Source: American Community Survey

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102 DATA GAPS: adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics

103 DATA GAPS: adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics BARRIERS: cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs

104 DATA GAPS: adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics BARRIERS: cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs ASSETS: higher education, workforce training, public/private partnerships

105 DATA GAPS: adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics BARRIERS: cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs ASSETS: higher education, workforce training, public/private partnerships ON THE HORIZON: minimum wage, family leave, benefits

106 The Measure of Opportunity SEPTEMBER 22: BIERTH & EARLY CHILDRHOOD OCTOBER 28: EDUCATION, SKILLS, JOBS & EMPLOYMENT NOVEMBER 19: INCOME, INEQUALITY & NEIGHBORHOODS tbf.org/opportunity

107 The Measure of Opportunity

108

Like much of the country, Detroit suffered significant job losses during the Great Recession.

Like much of the country, Detroit suffered significant job losses during the Great Recession. 36 37 POPULATION TRENDS Economy ECONOMY Like much of the country, suffered significant job losses during the Great Recession. Since bottoming out in the first quarter of 2010, however, the city has seen