Emerging Demand vs. Availability of Talent in the Greater Philadelphia Region

Transcription

1 Emerging Demand vs. Availability of Talent in the Greater Philadelphia Region By Phil Hopkins Vice President and Director of Research Select Greater Philadelphia Thursday, March 19, 2009

2 Private Sector Employment Trends Philadelphia & Trenton MSAs 3.00 Location Quotieint - September 2008 Information, 62.9 Financial Activities, Manufacturing, Trade, Transportation and Utilities, Professional & Business Services, Natural Resources, Mining and Construction, Education and Health Services, Other Servcies, % -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Annual Employment Growth Rate - Dec to Dec Leisure and Hospitality Services, Bubble size and numbers are number of jobs by sector (in 1,000s) in December 2008

3 Employment Change by Sector: City and Suburbs Construction, N.R & Mining Manufacturing Change in Number of Jobs (thousands) Prof. & Business Svcs Ed. & Health Svcs. Leisure & Hospitality Svcs. Other Svcs Information F inancial Activities Trade, Trans. & Utilities Government Suburban Counties City of Philadelphia Source: Global Insight, 2008.

4 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Labor Force Growth 1990 to Present 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jun-91 Oct-91 Feb-92 Jun-92 Oct-92 Feb-93 Jun-93 Oct-93 Feb-94 Jun-94 Oct-94 Feb-95 Jun-95 Oct-95 Feb-96 Jun-96 Oct-96 Feb-97 Jun-97 O ct-97 Feb-98 Jun-98 Oct-98 Feb-99 Jun-99 Oct-99 Feb-00 Jun-00 O ct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun % -1.0% Annual average for PHL & TRE = 0.5% Annual Average for U.S. = 1.2% Philadelphia & Trenton M SAs U.S. Sources: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Bureau of Labor Statistics, %Change Year Ago (6-month moving average)

5 Occupational Employment in 2007 by Level of Education and Experience Education and Training Philadelphia and Trenton U.S. Ratio Work experience in a related occupation 5.8% 7.6% 0.77 Short-term on-the-job training 36.1% 35.6% 1.01 Moderate-term on-the-job training 18.4% 19.9% 0.93 Long-term on-the-job training 5.8% 7.6% 0.76 Postsecondary vocational award 6.0% 5.4% 1.10 Associate degree 4.9% 3.7% 1.33 Bachelor's degree 14.2% 11.7% 1.22 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work exp. 4.1% 4.5% 0.92 Master's degree 1.8% 1.5% 1.19 First professional degree 1.6% 1.3% 1.27 Doctoral degree 1.3% 1.3% 0.94 % Bachelors and Higher 23.0% 20.2% 1.14 % Advanced 4.6% 4.1% 1.14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics.

6 Share of Occupational Employment Requiring an Advanced Degree or Higher in 2007 Washington D.C. 5.9% Boston 4.9% Philadelphia and Trenton 4.6% New York 4.3% San Fran cisco 4.3% Chicago 3.6% Los Angeles 3.4% Detroit 3.4% Miami 3.4% Houston 3.2% Atlanta 2.8% Dallas 2.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

7 Top 15 Degree Areas in 2006/07 CIP Number Cumulative % Business, management, marketing, and related support services 14, % Health professions and related clinical sciences 12, % Education 8, % Liberal arts and sciences, general studies and humanities 4, % Social sciences 3, % Visual and performing arts 3, % Psychology 2, % Engineering 2, % Biological and biomedical sciences 2, % Computer and information sciences and support services 2, % Legal professions and studies 1, % Communication, journalism, and related programs 1, % English language and literature/letters 1, % Public administration and social service professions 1, % Security and protective services 1, % Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2009.

8 Forecast Employment Growth by Sector 2008 Growth 2018 Rate Rank Change Rank Cons., NR & Mining % Manufacturing % 13 (15.1) 13 Wholesale Trade % Retail Trade % Trans., Warehousing, & Utilities % Information % Financial Activities % Professional & Business Svcs % Educational & Health Svcs % Leisure & Hospitality % Other Services % Federal Government % 12 (2.6) 12 State & Local Government % Total Nonfarm 3, , % Goods Producing % -5.9 Private, Services-Providing 2, , % Labor Force (Thous.) 3, , % Labor Force Participation Rate (Pct) Source: Global Insight, Fall 2008 Long-term MSA Forecast

9 Labor Supply and Demand Concerns Metro Economic Growth is Positively Correlated With Rising Ed. Attainment - Esp. % with Associate s & Bachelor s Degrees Priv. Services Providing Sectors Is Where Job Growth Will Occur Continuing Demand for College Educated Workers - What Majors? STEM Education is Essential Current/Emerging Shortages of Skilled Technical and Mfg. Workers Potential Source of Competitive Advantage Continuing Education At All Levels Increasingly Important WIBs, Community Colleges & Employers will Play Key Role Need to Strengthen Career and Technical Education At All Levels Colleges and Universities are the Region s Primary Source of Competitive Advantage

10 Importance of Education As the world becomes more and more loosely integrated, the feature that will increasingly differentiate one geographic area from another will the quality of public institutions. The most successful areas will be the ones with the most competent and effective mechanisms for supporting collective interests, especially in the production of new ideas. Paul Romer, 1994, Stanford.