Trends: Formidable Challenges for Maine Prepared for Leadership Unplugged Portland, Maine

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1 Labor Market Dynamics and Workforce Trends: Formidable Challenges for Maine Prepared for Leadership Unplugged Portland, Maine Economic & Demographic Research Team Center for Workforce Research and Information

2 The Current Economy/Labor Market Developments You don t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows Bob Dylan

3

4 625, , , , Nonfarm Wage and Salary Jobs Through October 2009 (Monthly Figures after October Estimated Based on CEFC Quarterly Forecast) Nonfarm Jobs CEFC Forecast 605, , , , ,000 Dec Ja an-08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja an-09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja an-10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5

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7 Continued Claims for Unemployment Compensation in Maine 4-Week Moving Averages (Data does not include Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims) 35, , , Claims 20,000 15, Duration 10, , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Duration 2009 Duration

8 But in the long run In the long run we are all dead John Maynard Keynes

9 78 Over the next ten years, many of the million Baby Boomers will leave the workforce, taking with them their product, marketing and industry expertise, along with internal company contacts and vendor and customer relationships. the job market is tight and only 44 million replacements for Baby Boomers will be available over the next ten years through career paths and succession plans. This leaves an enormous gap of core competencies, workforce skills and knowledge that t cannot be replaced by simply increasing i the use of technology to augment the smaller workforce.

10 Population Growth due to Natural Change is the Lowest in Generations Births and Deaths in Maine 24,000 Births Deaths 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,

11 We Have Become Increasingly Dependent on In-Migration for Population Growth Average Annual Change in Population by Source 12,085 Natural Increase Net Migration 8,940 9,116 5,698 7,563 5,884 4,443 3,096 5,238 1,602 1,521-2,285-6,536-6,

12 Population Growth is Expected to Continue to Slow 1.3% Average Annual Changes in Population 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 05% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%

13 Labor Force Participation Rates Have Peaked Labor force participation rates by gender 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Male Female Total

14 Labor Force Growth Will Continue to Slow Labor Force Growth 23% 19% 15% 8% 5% 5% 1%

15 The Share of Older Workers in the Labor Force is Rising Share of the Labor Force by age group 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

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17 Composition of Total Employment in Manufacturing 35% % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

18 The fastest job growth is projected to require at least some college education Job Growth by Educational Attainment 15% 10% 11% 11% 7% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% First Professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree + exp Bachelor's degree Associate degree Postsecondary vocational award Related work experience Long-term OJT Moderate-term OJT Short-term OJT

19 As educational attainment increases so does average wages $90,000 National Education and Wages $75,000 $60,000 Advance Degree $45,000 Bachelor's Degree $30,000 $15,000 Some College High School Graduate No High School $

20 Job Growth will be the largest among the highest and lowest paying occupations Job Growth by Wage Bracket 10.5% 10.0% 10.9% 10.4% 5.5% 4.8% <$10/hr $10 to $14.99/hr $15 to $19.99/hr $20 to $29.99/hr $30 to $39.99/hr $40+/hr

21 Openings in Occupations will be fueled by replacement demand rather than by growth in all occupations except one Openings by occupations, Growth and Replacement Projections 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Total Management Business & Fin inancial Operations Computer & Mathematical Architectu ture & Engineering Life, Physical, & Social Science Community & Social Services Legal Education, Training, & Library Arts, Design, Enterta rtainment, Sports,.. Healthcare Practitio itioners & Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation & Serving Related Building & Grounds Cleaning & Main... Persona nal Care & Service Sales Office & Admin ministrative Support Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Construc uction & Extraction Installation, Main intenance, & Repair Production Transportation n& & Material Moving 0% Annual Openings due to Growth Annual Openings due to Replacement

22 Most High Growth/High Wage jobs will be filled by workers with at least some post-secondary education. High School Or Less 33.6% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 45.4% Some College/Associate' s Degree 20.9%

23 Job growth will be concentrated in Healthcare (51% of net job growth), Prof/Bus. (18%), and Leisure & Hospitality (17%) 2006 to 2016 Projected net change in jobs by sector 17,180 5,890 5, ,288 1,691 2,689 1,041 1,096 1, ,971 Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation&Warehousing Utilities Information Financial Activites Professional & Business Svcs Education Healt alth Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitlity Other Services Government

24 Fastest Growing Occupations in Maine Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners 47.1% 46.5% Instructional Coordinators 38.0% Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 37.1% Medical Assistants 33.6% Pharmacy Technicians 32.7% Physical Therapist Assistants 32.7% Computer Software Engineers, Applications 30.1% Medical Equipment Repairers 29.7% Biochemists and Biophysicists 28.6%

25 Most Rapidly Declining Occupations in Maine Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders -30.8% Furniture Finishers i -30.8% Electro-Mechanical Technicians -38.7% File Clerks -42.1% Photographic Process Workers -43.4% Engine and Other Machine Assemblers -45.0% Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers -45.8% Patternmakers, Wood -50.0% Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers -53.3% Photographic Processing Machine Operators -54.2%

26 Jobs in Maine with Most Openings SOC Annual SOC Title Code Openings Cashiers Waiters and Waitresses Retail Salespersons Registered Nurses Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Customer Service Representatives Office Clerks, General Personal and Home Care Aides Personal and Home Care Aides Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

27 O*NET ONET Green Results (cont.) Distribution of Green O*NET-SOC Occupations Across Sectors Increased Demand Enhanced Skills New & Emerging Research, Design, and Consulting Services Manufacturing Green Economy Sec ctors Renewable Energy Generation Green Construction Environment Protection Transportation Governmental and Regulatory Administration Energy Efficiency Agriculture and Forestry Recycling and Waste Reduction Energy Trading Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage Number of O*NET-SOC Occupations

28 A greater share of workers are employed today with smaller employers compared to 25 years ago 20% Percent of Workers by Size Class 16% 12% 8% 4% & over

29 Why Invest in your Future

30 The Next Economy is A Science and Knowledge Economy - need scientific and technological literacy A Resource-Challenged Economy - need critical thinking about sustainable economies A Globally Interdependent Economy - global competence is a core competence A Demographically Diverse Economy - requires cross-cultural leadership skills An Innovation-Driven Economy - requires students who can learn how to learn and adapt to rapid change

31 Future supply of college graduates 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500, ,000, , China EU US

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