ARC Executive Meeting. Andrew Hargreaves / Director of CX, Marketing and UCAS Media

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1 ARC Executive Meeting Andrew Hargreaves / Director of CX, Marketing and UCAS Media

2 Third ever fall in applicants The number of applicants has fallen for the first time since 2012.

3 June deadline applicants down by 4% At the June deadline, there were 25,000 fewer applicants than last year. Not EU were the only group not to show falls.

4 Factors behind the falls EU: 5% fall of ~2,600 applicants Nursing: 19% fall of ~12,600 applicants Older age groups: - 19: 5% fall of ~7, : 7% fall of ~8, : 14% fall of ~4,700 18yo: Slower trend increases

5 Demand for HE is still strong June deadline 18yo application rates The proportion of the population applying can be used as a measure of appetite for HE. Despite the fall in applicant numbers, the coexisting fall in the 18yo population means that application rates grow to 38% in England.

6 The sector shows a late recovery At 12 days from A-level results day, there were 486,890 placed applicants. This is a 1% fall from last year. The sector has shown a late recovery from the 4% fall in June deadline applicants.

7 Stable number of acceptances through clearing Acceptances through clearing are stable at 39,810. Firm choice acceptances have fallen by 1% and Insurance choice acceptances have fallen by 5%.

8 The pool of applicants available for clearing is smaller The number of applicants holding an offer is similar to last year at 39,830. There are 121,290 applicants free to be placed in clearing, a 13% fall from last year.

9 Latent demand for HE is still strong 8,820 applicants were placed directly through clearing, a 7% increase from last year. The underlying demand for HE is still strong.

10 Scottish and Not EU applicants thrive Increases in placed applicants from Scotland and Not EU. Decreases in placed applicants from the EU and across the other UK domiciles.

11 Older age groups show largest falls in acceptances -4% -5% -9% 1% increase in 18-year-old placed applicants, despite the falling 18-year-old population. Acceptances decrease across the older age groups.

12 Reversed patterns by age in Scotland +8% In contrast to the rest of the UK, Scottish older acceptances are up whereas 18-year-old acceptances are level.

13 English and Scottish entry rates continue to grow The entry rate of English 18- year-olds increases to 32.9%. The Scottish entry rate increases to 25.5%. Northern Irish and Welsh entry rates fall.

14 Sex gaps continue to widen Across all domiciles, there is a larger decrease in male placed applicants than female placed applicants.

15 Females are 36% more likely to enter HE than males 37.3% 27.5% Female 18-year-olds are now 36% more likely to enter HE than males. The sex gap has therefore widened slightly from 35% in 2016.

16 18-year-old entry rates are up across all English regions London has the highest entry rate of 41.2% 25% larger than the entry rate for England overall. The entry rate for the North East has increased by 2 percentage points to draw level with the East Midlands.

17 Nursing acceptances are down by 4% At 12 days from A-level results day, there were 24,940 placed Nursing applicants. The 4% fall in nursing acceptances is not as drastic as the 19% fall in nursing applicants.

18 More nursing acceptances through clearing Nursing acceptances through clearing are up 17% to 1,220. Insurance choice acceptances are down 4%. Firm choice acceptances are down 6% from 23,330 to 21,890.

19 Medium tariff providers reverse trends seen in June There was a 2% increase in acceptances to Medium Tariff providers, despite the 4% fall in June deadline applicants to this group. High Tariff providers remained stable while Lower Tariff providers experienced a 5% fall in acceptances.

20 Low Tariff reductions are driven by older age groups For 18-year-old placed applicants, the decrease in acceptances to Low Tariff providers is less pronounced. Much of the decrease at Low Tariff providers may therefore be attributable to older age groups.

21 Reduced EU entry to Low and High Tariff Providers The reductions in EU acceptances are most strongly felt at High Tariff and Low Tariff providers. Medium Tariff providers experienced a 4% increase in EU acceptances.

22 A-level subjects flow into degree choices Topics taken at A-level commonly flow into similar courses taken at degree level. The Sankey diagram shows A-level subjects on the left with strong links to degree subjects on the right.

23 Business and Admin studies suffer the largest falls Business and Administrative studies, along with Creative Arts and Design, experience large falls in placed applicants. Social Studies and Law both experience increases in acceptances.

24 Acceptances increase most to POLAR Q1 Acceptances from parliamentary constituencies with the lowest participation rates increase by 4%. Acceptances from POLAR Quintile 5 increase by only 1%.

25 Inequalities in entry rates remain prevalent POLAR Q5 are now 2.4 times more likely to enter HE than Q1, down from 2.5 times more likely in 2016.

26 INTERNAL REPORTS Inequalities are more apparent with the MEM The MEM accounts for multiple dimensions of equality. Individuals in the higher numbered quintiles are from demographic groups that are associated with higher entry rates. Using this measure, Group 5 are 4 times more likely to enter higher education than Group 1.

27 INTERNAL REPORTS Entry rates increase across all ethnic groups Entry rates increase across all ethnic groups, but least so for the White ethnic group. The gap in entry rates between the White ethnic group and all other ethnic groups has therefore widened.

28 BTEC-only acceptances have fallen INTERNAL REPORTS Acceptances have remained stable for applicants with A- levels, A-levels + BTECs, and SQAs. BTEC-only acceptances have fallen by 4%.

29 INTERNAL REPORTS Placed applicant s A-level attainment has worsened Across the sector, A- level attainment has worsened slightly. Higher percentages of students are achieving lower grades.

30 Unconditional offer-making has changed INTERNAL REPORTS 18,255 applicants received unconditional offers this year: 49% more than in The distribution has shifted to the left such that more applicants with lower grades are receiving unconditional offers.

31 INTERNAL REPORTS More placed applicants are missing their predicted grades by 3 or more points 25.1% of placed applicants have met or exceeded their predicted grades (compared to 24.6% in 2016). However, a larger proportion of placed applicants have dropped more than 3 points (19.8% vs 16.2%).

32 INTERNAL REPORTS Unconditional offers may influence these trends Of the applicants placed through an unconditional offer, 32.5% dropped 3 or more A- level points. This is an increase of 24% from 26.3% dropping 3 or more points in Similarly the percentage of placed applicants meeting or exceeding their predicted grades has fallen from 16.1% to 15.4%.

33 Thank you

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