Cross-national patterns associated with adult learning systems:

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1 Cross-national patterns associated with adult learning systems: Patterns of participation, outcomes and coordination RICHARD DESJARDINS UCLA Department of Education Singapore, November

2 Overview What is meant by Adult Learning Systems? Cross-national patterns of participation The flow of adult learning Its impact on the stock of qualifications The growth of adult learning Cross-national patterns of outcomes Relationship to labour market outcomes: employment and earnings Cross-national patterns of coordination Coordination of the demand and supply of AE Role of qualification systems in fostering AE Role of selected economic and social policy instruments in fostering AE

3 Two related products DRAFT PIAAC Thematic Report on Adult Learning

4 An adult learning system perspective Adult learning/education are age related concepts Lifelong learning includes all learning cradle-grave (holistic) Adult learning is age-related (second chance/delayed, continued for work/societal/personal reasons) Distinguishing adult vs regular students in FE difficult FE can be exclusively for either type can include both but with adaptations to accommodate adults can include both with no adaptations (differs by country) ALS are the mass of organized learning opportunities available to adults along with their underlying structures and stakeholders that shape their organization and governance Organized learning includes FE qualifications attained by non-traditional students Non-formal education activities Non-formal provisions (may be linked to qualifications) Directly or indirectly job-related (on-the-job training, basic skills) Non-job related (basic skills, community involvement, leisure)

5 Major types of organized adult learning Types: Remedial (compensatory, second chance, basic skills) Liberal (community, leisure, basic skills) CTVET (initial vs continuing age of students) AHE (regular/traditional vs adult/non-traditional) Formal vs non-formal not very useful as a distinction Increasing links between the two in flexible manner PIAAC does not reflect this reality Adult Basic Education(ABE) (may lead to ISCED:, for 9+) Mostly formal, but non-formal modules may lead to equivalent qualification Adult General Education(AGE) (may lead to ISCED: for +) Typically formal usually high school equivalence (e.g. GED) Adult Vocational Education(AVE) (may lead to ISCED: for +, b for +) Formal and non-formal extent of formal depends on how well country s VET system is developed Adult Higher Education(AHE) (leads to ISCED: b,a for +; for +) Formal type Adult Liberal Education(ALE) Non-formal type, can be linked to ABE, AGE, AVE or AHE in certain countries

6 Features of ALS General features of ALS concept Comprises governance, financing & provision structures related to AE Beyond the responsibility of any given ministry or institution Difficult to pinpoint Views AE systems as overlapping with E&T and other systems Embedded in society at intersection of E&T, LM, Welfare systems Not seen as a system per se, but some countries feature more coordination and integration of key elements (common language and vision) Distinguishing factors of advanced ALS in different countries Degree of openness of FE systems to non-traditional students Level of integration of ABE-AVE-AHE and ALE Flexible and open qualification systems linking to AE and non-formal provisions (e.g. greater integration among ABE-AGE-AVE-AHE provisions) High and widely distributed participation in AE & foundation skills Diverse provision catering to diverse needs Targeting and outreach to socially disadvantaged adults

7 Extent of AE: Stock vs flow Stock Past Formal AE à qualifications Adults participated in credentialed (degree or diploma) programs Including: Basic skill courses à ISCED,, Apprenticeships à ISCED, b Higher education à ISCED a, Qualifications attained at older ages = past AE activity Flow Current (last mths) Formal and non-formal AE à future qualification? Adults participate in: Basic skills courses; Credential (degree or diploma) programs; Apprenticeships; Work-related courses; Informal learning at work; Personal interest/personal development courses Excludes students in regular initial cycle (those following normative path to qualifications)

8 Cross-national patterns of participation

9 Stock of qualifications attained via AE Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Canada New Zealand United States Germany Netherlands Australia England (UK) Chile Israel OECD Average Ireland Slovenia Lithuania Northern Ireland (UK) Estonia Singapore Poland Korea Spain France Italy Czech Republic Austria Greece Russian Federation² Turkey Slovak Republic Cyprus¹ Flanders (Belgium) Japan Percent ISCED or lower (9+) ISCED (+) ISCED (+) ISCED b (+) ISCED a BA (+), MA, PHD (+) 9

10 Recent AE flow in formal provisions Expected to add to stock of qualifications Japan Korea Cyprus¹ France Czech Republic Slovak Republic Italy Poland Greece Lithuania Austria Russian Federation² Germany Flanders (Belgium) Estonia Singapore Turkey Slovenia Chile OECD Average Northern Ireland (UK) Israel United States Spain Sweden Canada Denmark Finland Australia Netherlands Ireland Norway England (UK) New Zealand ISCED or lower (9+) ISCED (+) ISCED (+) ISCED b (+) ISCED a BA (+), MA, PHD (+) Percent

11 Recent AE flow in all types of provisions Non-employer supported Employer-supported Norway Denmark New Zealand Netherlands Finland Sweden Singapore England (UK) United States Canada Australia Germany Northern Ireland (UK) Czech Republic Estonia Flanders (Belgium) OECD Average Israel Austria Ireland Slovenia Chile Korea Japan Spain France Cyprus¹ Lithuania Slovak Republic Poland Italy Russian Federation² Turkey Greece Adult Formal Education (AFE) (qualifications) - Job related Non-Formal Education (NFE) only - Job related Percent AFE/NFE - Non-job related Total participation

12 Growth of AE Since the 99s Chile Ireland Flanders (Belgium) Poland Czech Republic Netherlands Canada Northern Ireland (UK) Slovenia New Zealand Norway United States England (UK) Denmark Sweden Finland Italy LFS annualized % change (ca 99-) Percent PIAAC - IALS Annualized growth rate Percent of adults participating in any AE in PIAAC vs IALS 9 Ireland Chile Flanders (Belgium) Netherlands Poland Canada Italy Czech Republic New Zealand Northern Ireland (UK) Denmark United States Slovenia Norway England (UK) Sweden Finland LFS annualized % change (ca 99-) PIAAC - IALS Annualized growth rate Percent of adults participating in employer supported AE in PIAAC vs IALS Percent

13 Summary of factors predicting take-up of employer supported AE Effect sizes Read at work ICT use at work Firm Size Occupation Education Literacy skill Sector Industry Age Immigration-language status Gender

14 Socio-demographic factors related to AE Adjusted probabilities of participating in any AE by age Adj. Probability (Youth) - (Early career aged) - (Mid career aged) - (Late career aged)

15 Socio-demographic factors related to AE Adjusted probabilities of participating in any AE by literacy proficiency Adj. Probability Level / Level Level Level or below

16 Cross-national patterns of outcomes

17 Employment advantage of having attained ISCED as an adult (+) vs not attaining ISCED at all Slovak Republic Czech Republic Poland Cyprus Belgium Spain Germany Finland Austria France Netherlands UK Denmark Italy Norway Korea Sweden Ireland Estonia US Japan Advantage of having attained ISCED beyond normative age vs not attaining ISCED Advantage of having attained ISCED beyond normative age vs not attaining ISCED ISCED, beyond normative age > ISCED, within normative age <= Did not complete ISCED Adj. Probability

18 Earnings advantage of having attained ISCED a as an adult (+) vs not attaining HE at all Germany Slovak Republic Poland Netherlands Ireland Korea Sweden Italy Belgium Estonia Austria Norway Denmark France Finland UK Cyprus Spain Japan US Czech Republic Advantage of having attained qualification beyond vs within normative age Disadvantage of having attained qualification beyond vs within normative age Adj. Probability Advantage/disadvantage of completing beyond normative age Earnings premium for ISCED a (BA), beyond normative age > Earnings premium for ISCED a (BA), within normative age <=

19 Openness of FE systems to adults students and employment rate. Percent who attained highest qualification beyond normative age Correlation =. y =.999x -. R² = Employment rate

20 Openness of HE systems to adults students and literacy skills Ratio of HE graduates over vs under.. DK SE.. Correlation =. IR US UK NO R² =. FI AT NL. DE CA. PL CZ ET SL. IT ES FR KO. CY. 9 9 Average literacy skill score (PIAAC) of adult populations

21 Cross-national patterns of coordination

22 Fostering demand is a key challenge but so is helping citizens overcome barriers Coordinating the supply and demand for AE Percent 9 Demand not met Shortage of provision Unable to overcome barriers 9 9 No demand Unmet demand Partially met Met demand Source: PIAAC,

23 Coordinating adult learning systems Qualification systems Open and flexible (good for motivation, reach ) Public support for education Needs to be combined with open and flexible FE structures Active labour market policies Needs to be connected to training, qualification attainment Success probably related to diversified & flexible provision Targeting Relates to progressive social policy designed to mitigate inequality and barriers of socially disadvantaged citizens Stimulating quality jobs High skill jobs Non-routine jobs

24 Coordinating tools: Total welfare spending unrelated to advancedness to ALS Important to distinguish between welfare expenditures that are proximal or distal to activating learning Percent Total welfare spending (% of GDP) SV IT FR PO BE AT DE ES Average JA CZ KO UK IR US CA ET SE FI DK NO NL Probability of participation for most disadvantaged group Percent Source: PIAAC,

25 Coordinating tools: Impact of public education spending depends on openness of FE Higher public education spending does not automatically translate into opportunities for adults, particularly disadvantaged adults Percent. Public spending on education (% of GDP) Higher public spending Lower openness of FE France Poland Korea Lithuania Czech Republic Italy Japan Slovak Republic Correlation =. Austria Germany Slovenia Estonia Turkey Chile Israel Norway Denmark Finland Ireland Sweden New Zealand Australia Canada Netherlands United States Spain R² =.9 Lower public spending Higher openness of FE Percent Probability of participation in Formal AE

26 Coordinating tools: Impact of ALMPs contingent on provision structures that cater to disadvantaged adults Not all ALMPs appear to be effective at reaching disadvantaged adults Percent. DK Public spending on active labour market policies (% of GDP) IT Higher ALMP spending Lower openness of FE Lower targeting PO SV FR JA ES BE Correlation =. IR Average KO ET DE AT CZ US UK R² =.9 FI Probability of participation of adults with lowest levels of education Percent NO SE NL Lower ALMP spending Higher openness of FE Higher targeting

27 Coordinating tools: Targeting of low skilled increased since 99s Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Netherlands United States United Kingdom Ireland Belgium Poland Italy Participation rate of adult scoring at Level or below in IALS Participation rate of adult scoring at Level or below in PIAAC 9 9 Percent

28 Coordinating tools: Fostering skilled work boosts access to learning Proportion of high skill jobs strongly related to openness of FE Percent Correlation =. NL Proportion of skilled occupations AT FR CZ ES KO ET Average PO IR DE UK US SE FI NO DK R² =. IT Percent Proportion of qualifications attained via formal AE

29 Some implications for improving the coordination of adult learning systems Support broad economic and social policies that Foster demand - Good for citizens perception of opportunity structure Help families and workers overcome situational barriers (e.g. family assistance) Maintain affordability (welfare spending related to activation more effective) Sustain governance and provision structures (public education spending in connection with a vibrant and flexible provision more effective)

30 Some implications for improving the coordination of adult learning systems Foster broad stakeholder coordination that helps to Share information not so easily shared via the market mechanism and thus compensate for market failures related to information assymmetries Identity local and more specific individualised needs Pool risks associated with uncertainty surrounding investment in adult learning Validate all kinds of learning and integrate opportunties with qualification systems Develop common language to enhance coherence in governance of ALS Design specific policies that target socially disadvantaged adults Promote adaptation of formal and non-formal provision that is Open, flexible, customized, and linkable to qualification systems

31 Summary and measurement of adult learning systems

32 Summary of key findings Majority of AE is employer supported, job-related, non-formal Employers supporting FE leading to qualifications at high rate in + countries Flow rates of employer supported AE/year Large variation across countries at or near % in countries (most advanced ALS, progressive social policy) Between -% in countries Between -% in countries Between -% in countries Below % in countries FE systems open to adult students Large variation across countries Boosts qualifications Linked to observed boost in employment for those adults and overall Linked to observed boost in earnings for those adults Linked to active aging and learning in late career/life ALS are growing fast Employer supported AE growing faster than overall AE Countries with adult learning opportunities linked to qualifications expected to experience large boost in qualifications via AE Major differences across countries confirm existence of sharp differences In extent ALS are well developed and coordinated across advanced industrial nations May signify key source of variation explaining economic success & other outcomes

33 Measuring adult learning systems Some data on link between NFE activity and FE qualifications NFE activity increasingly the norm in many countries Need more detail for policy relevant analysis Better data on past AE activity that led to qualifications Largely ignored in prior studies and in PIAAC At the moment, this is based on the age at which the highest qualification was attained Better data on motivations and sources of support Government support completely ignored in PIAAC Motivations are multi-dimensional, overlap (non-job related important) No data on whether AE was for basic skills programme in PIAAC Better data on barriers Inadequate data on barriers given state of art on topic Inadequate link to social policy instruments designed to mitigate inequality No data on why adults do not to participate (cost, time, available supply à relevant) System level features Study and define ALS system level features to collect data Can improve policy relevant analyses and policy learning in an international context

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