The Spatial Distribution of Rural Poverty in the Last Three Quinquennial Rounds of NSS *

Transcription

1 The Spatial Distribution of Rural Poverty in the Last Three Quinquennial Rounds of NSS * Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma Research School of Pacific & Asian Studies Australian National University ABSTRACT The spatial distribution of poverty in India has emerged as a matter of urgent concern in recent times. Although much of this analysis has concentrated on the poverty experiences of states, there is considerable evidence of wide variations within states particularly, but not exclusively, the larger ones. This paper presents evidence on the poverty experiences of 75 NSS regions for the quinquennial rounds of , and The results presented here facilitate easy identification of lagging areas on which anti poverty policy must concentrate. Furthermore, regional inequality in the incidence of poverty has persisted over time. The economic reforms program has been unable to make any significant dent on the spatial distribution of expenditure poverty. All correspondence to: Prof. Raghbendra Jha, ASARC, RSPAS, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Fax: Phone: r.jha@anu.edu.au * We are grateful to DFID, UK for financial support.

2 I. Introduction Much has been written recently on the behaviour of poverty in India. An important characteristic of poverty trends has been changes in the spatial distribution of such poverty as a consequence of economic reforms. Jha (2000) presented evidence on the non-convergence of poverty rates across states. 1 Dubey and Gangopadhyay (1998) computed poverty indices for the various NSS regions for the 43 rd and 50 th rounds of the NSS. The wide variations of poverty within many states, as portrayed by Dubey and Gangopadhyay provide an indication that one needs to analyse poverty at a level more disaggregated than individual states. The present paper provides updates on the rural poverty profile of 75 NSS regions common to the 43 rd, 50 th and 55 th rounds of the NSS. As is well known by now, there are problems of comparability between the 55 th and earlier rounds. Hence while the 43 rd and 50 th round results can and are compared, we do not compare the 55 th round results with the other rounds. The plan of this paper is as follows. Section II briefly outlines the methodology for poverty computation used in this paper. Section III provides results on poverty measures for the 43 rd ( ), 50 th ( ) and 55 th ( ) quinquennial rounds of the NSS as well as changes in poverty and its intensity across the 43 rd and 50 th rounds. Section IV concludes. 1 For a recent analysis of the behaviour of poverty trends in major states of India see Sundaram and Tendulkar (2003). WP 2003/002 2

3 II. The Methodology This paper uses the popular Foster Greer Thorbecke (FGT) measures of poverty. FGT poverty measure for a given population is defined by: P q z y = α 0 z which in discrete terms is α dy PG α = 1 N q i= 1 z y z i α where N is the sample size, y is the variable of interest (monthly per capita expenditure in the case of this paper), z is the poverty line(a number or a scalar) Three poverty measures are calculated based on three values of α. Head Count Index of Poverty (PG0) α = 0: q PG 0 = N This measure fails to capture the extent to which individual income (or expenditure) falls below the poverty line. Hence we use our second measure: the poverty gap index (PG 1 ) given by the aggregate income shortfall of the poor as a proportion of the poverty line and normalized by the population size. Poverty Gap (PG 1 ) α = 1: q 1 z yi PG = 1 N i 1 z PG 1 captures the acuteness of poverty since it measures the total shortfall of the poor from the poverty line. In other words, it measures the total amount of income necessary to remove that poverty. This measure has the drawback that it does not consider the importance of the number of people who are below the poverty line. For WP 2003/002 3

4 this reason, it is important to use both measures of poverty jointly to evaluate the extent of poverty. There are certain policy changes that favor one group of poor and adversely affect another group. In such cases HC may not register any change but PG 1 may get around this problem to some extent. Square Poverty Gap (PG 2 ) α = 2: 2 1 q z yi PG = 2 N i 1 z This measures the severity of poverty even more accurately. In discussing poverty, therefore, it is important to use all three measures. The current analysis uses multipliers as the household sampling weights. 2 The poverty line or minimum per capita monthly expenditure (mpce) is Rs. 49 in prices as suggested by the Planning Commission. We use the CPIAL (All India) for deflating the consumption values. III. Results Table 1 provides details of the NSS regions used in this paper. The NSS regional code has varied over the years but we use a common set here for purposes of consistency. Table 1: NSS regions State Region Code used in this Paper Andhra Pradesh Coastal 1 Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern 2 Andhra Pradesh South western 3 Andhra Pradesh Inland southern 4 Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh 5 Assam Plains Eastern 6 Assam Plains Western 7 Assam Hills 8 Bihar Southern 9 Bihar Northern 10 Bihar Central 11 2 For a treatment of multipliers in the three rounds see the documentation for these rounds provided by NSS. WP 2003/002 4

5 Goa Goa 12 Gujarat Eastern 13 Gujarat Plains Northern 14 Gujarat Plains Southern 15 Gujarat Dry Areas 16 Gujarat Saurashtra 17 Haryana Eastern 18 Haryana Western 19 Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh 20 J&K Mountainous 21 J&K Outer Hills 22 Karnataka Coastal and Ghats 23 Karnataka Inlands Eastern 24 Karnataka Inland Southern 25 Karnataka Inland Northern 26 Kerala Northern 27 Kerala Southern 28 Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh 29 Madhya Pradesh Vindhya 30 Madhya Pradesh Central 31 Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau 32 Madhya Pradesh South Central 33 Madhya Pradesh South western 34 Madhya Pradesh Northern 35 Maharashtra Coastal 36 Maharashtra Inland Western 37 Maharashtra Inland Northern 38 Maharashtra Inland Central 39 Maharashtra Inland Eastern 40 Maharashtra Eastern 41 Manipur Plains 42 Manipur Hills 43 Meghalaya Meghalaya 44 Mizoram Mizoram 45 Orissa Coastal 46 Orissa Southern 47 Orissa Northern 48 Punjab Northern 49 Punjab Southern 50 Rajasthan Western 51 Rajasthan North Eastern 52 Rajasthan Southern 53 Rajasthan South Eastern 54 Sikkim Sikkim 55 Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern 56 Tamil Nadu Coastal 57 Tamil Nadu Southern 58 Tamil Nadu Inland 59 Tripura Tripura 60 Uttar Pradesh Himalayan 61 Uttar Pradesh Western 62 WP 2003/002 5

6 Uttar Pradesh Central 63 Uttar Pradesh Eastern 64 Uttar Pradesh Southern 65 West Bengal Himalayan 66 West Bengal Eastern Plains 67 West Bengal Central Plains 68 West Bengal Western Plains 69 Andaman & Nicobar A&N 70 Chandigarh 71 Dadra & nagar Haveli 72 Delhi 73 Lakshadweep 74 Pondicherry 75 The results on poverty computations for the three quinquennial rounds follow in Tables 2 to 10 for PG0, PG1 and PG2. These magnitudes are arranged in ascending order to facilitate ranking of regions by their poverty profile. 3 The all-india figures are also given in these tables. Table 2: 43 rd Round PG0 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG0 Andaman & Nicobar A&N Lakshadweep Manipur Plains Haryana Western Punjab Northern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Manipur Hills Punjab Southern Pondicherry Uttar Pradesh Himalayan West Bengal Himalayan Kerala Southern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats J&K Mountainous Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Tripura Tripura Gujarat Saurashtra Goa Goa Haryana Eastern Assam Hills Data on all regions may not be reported for each of the rounds. This is because of the lack of convergence of the computational algorithm in these cases. WP 2003/002 6

7 Assam Plains Eastern Gujarat Plains Southern Kerala Northern Gujarat Plains Northern Sikkim Sikkim J&K Outer Hills Rajasthan Western Tamil Nadu Inland Rajasthan North Eastern Maharashtra Inland Western Meghalaya Meghalaya Maharashtra Coastal Madhya Pradesh Northern Assam Plains Western Gujarat Eastern Rajasthan South Eastern Karnataka Inlands Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Uttar Pradesh Western West Bengal Central Plains Andhra Pradesh Coastal Tamil Nadu Coastal Andhra Pradesh South western Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern India Maharashtra Eastern Uttar Pradesh Central Orissa Coastal Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Karnataka Inland Southern Maharashtra Inland Northern Karnataka Inland Northern Gujarat Dry Areas Bihar Southern Bihar Central Maharashtra Inland Eastern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Mizoram Mizoram Maharashtra Inland Central Tamil Nadu Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Bihar Northern Uttar Pradesh Eastern West Bengal Eastern Plains Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Orissa Northern Uttar Pradesh Southern Madhya Pradesh South Central Madhya Pradesh South western Andhra Pradesh Inland southern WP 2003/002 7

8 Rajasthan Southern Dadra & nagar Haveli Orissa Southern Table 3: 43 rd Round Head PG1 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG1 Andaman & Nicobar A&N Lakshadweep Manipur Plains Punjab Northern Haryana Western Manipur Hills Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Punjab Southern Pondicherry West Bengal Himalayan Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Gujarat Saurashtra J&K Mountainous Goa Goa Kerala Southern Assam Plains Eastern Tripura Tripura Assam Hills Sikkim Sikkim Gujarat Plains Northern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh J&K Outer Hills Kerala Northern Haryana Eastern Gujarat Plains Southern Assam Plains Western Rajasthan Western Maharashtra Inland Western Rajasthan North Eastern Tamil Nadu Inland Maharashtra Coastal Karnataka Inlands Eastern Rajasthan South Eastern Gujarat Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Northern Meghalaya Meghalaya West Bengal Central Plains Uttar Pradesh Western Andhra Pradesh Coastal Tamil Nadu Coastal WP 2003/002 8

9 Andhra Pradesh South western Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern India Gujarat Dry Areas Maharashtra Eastern Orissa Coastal Uttar Pradesh Central Maharashtra Inland Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Karnataka Inland Southern Bihar Northern Bihar Central Bihar Southern West Bengal Eastern Plains Uttar Pradesh Eastern Madhya Pradesh Central Mizoram Mizoram Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Maharashtra Inland Central Karnataka Inland Northern Tamil Nadu Southern Uttar Pradesh Southern Orissa Northern Dadra & nagar Haveli Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Madhya Pradesh South Central Madhya Pradesh South western Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Rajasthan Southern Orissa Southern Table 4: 43 rd Round Head PG2 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG2 Andaman & Nicobar Lakshadweep Manipur Plains Manipur Hills Punjab Northern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Punjab Southern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Haryana Western West Bengal Himalayan Gujarat Saurashtra Assam Hills WP 2003/002 9

10 Assam Plains Eastern Goa Goa J&K Mountainous Kerala Southern Tripura Tripura Sikkim Sikkim Gujarat Plains Northern J&K Outer Hills Assam Plains Western Kerala Northern Gujarat Plains Southern Maharashtra Inland Western Rajasthan Western Karnataka Inland Eastern Rajasthan North Eastern Haryana Eastern Tamil Nadu Inland Maharashtra Coastal Rajasthan South Eastern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Gujarat Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Northern Meghalaya Meghalaya Uttar Pradesh Western West Bengal Central Plains Gujarat Dry Areas Tamil Nadu Coastal Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Andhra Pradesh South western Andhra Pradesh Coastal Orissa Coastal Maharashtra Eastern India Uttar Pradesh Central Maharashtra Inland Eastern Maharashtra Inland Northern Bihar Northern Bihar Central Madhya Pradesh Vindhya West Bengal Eastern Plains Karnataka Inland Southern Uttar Pradesh Eastern Bihar Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Dadra & nagar Haveli Mizoram Mizoram Maharashtra Inland Central Uttar Pradesh Southern Karnataka Inland Northern WP 2003/002 10

11 Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Orissa Northern Tamil Nadu Southern Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Madhya Pradesh South western Madhya Pradesh South Central Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Orissa Southern Rajasthan Southern Table 5: 50 th Round PG0 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG0 Chandigarh Andaman & Nicobar A&N J&K Mountainous Mizoram Mizoram Punjab Northern Manipur Plains Goa Goa Punjab Southern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Manipur Hills Meghalaya Meghalaya Gujarat Saurashtra Kerala Southern Rajasthan North Eastern Sikkim Sikkim Haryana Western Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Kerala Northern Tripura Tripura Assam Hills Karnataka Inlands Eastern Maharashtra Coastal Rajasthan Western Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Haryana Eastern Assam Plains Eastern Pondicherry Tamil Nadu Coastal Madhya Pradesh Northern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Gujarat Plains Southern Tamil Nadu Inland West Bengal Central Plains Gujarat Plains Northern Gujarat Eastern Uttar Pradesh Western Gujarat Dry Areas WP 2003/002 11

12 J&K Outer Hills Maharashtra Inland Western Rajasthan South Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Assam Plains Western Rajasthan Southern Andhra Pradesh Coastal India Karnataka Inland Southern West Bengal Eastern Plains Andhra Pradesh South western Tamil Nadu Southern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Uttar Pradesh Eastern Karnataka Inland Northern West Bengal Himalayan Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Uttar Pradesh Central Bihar Central Orissa Northern Madhya Pradesh South Central Maharashtra Inland Eastern Maharashtra Inland Northern Orissa Coastal Maharashtra Eastern Bihar Northern Dadra & nagar Haveli Maharashtra Inland Central Bihar Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Uttar Pradesh Southern Orissa Southern Madhya Pradesh South western Table 6: 50 th Round PG1 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG1 Chandigarh Andaman & Nicobar A&N Mizoram Mizoram J&K Mountainous Punjab Northern Manipur Plains Manipur Hills Goa Goa Meghalaya Meghalaya WP 2003/002 12

13 Punjab Southern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Kerala Southern Assam Hills Gujarat Saurashtra Sikkim Sikkim Haryana Western Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Rajasthan North Eastern Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Rajasthan Western Pondicherry Tripura Tripura Kerala Northern Karnataka Inlands Eastern Assam Plains Eastern Maharashtra Coastal Haryana Eastern Gujarat Plains Northern Gujarat Dry Areas Tamil Nadu Coastal Tamil Nadu Inland West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Northern Gujarat Plains Southern J&K Outer Hills Uttar Pradesh Western Gujarat Eastern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh West Bengal Central Plains Assam Plains Western Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Rajasthan South Eastern Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Maharashtra Inland Western Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Rajasthan Southern Karnataka Inland Southern West Bengal Eastern Plains Andhra Pradesh Coastal West Bengal Himalayan India Andhra Pradesh South western Tamil Nadu Southern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Uttar Pradesh Eastern Karnataka Inland Northern Dadra & nagar Haveli Bihar Central Maharashtra Eastern WP 2003/002 13

14 Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Maharashtra Inland Northern Orissa Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Orissa Coastal Uttar Pradesh Central Bihar Northern Madhya Pradesh South Central Bihar Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Maharashtra Inland Central Uttar Pradesh Southern Orissa Southern Madhya Pradesh South western Table 7: 50 th Round PG2 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG2 Chandigarh E-05 Andaman & Nicobar A&N E-05 Mizoram Mizoram Punjab Northern J&K Mountainous Manipur Plains Manipur Hills Goa Goa Meghalaya Meghalaya Punjab Southern Assam Hills Sikkim Sikkim Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Kerala Southern Haryana Western Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Gujarat Saurashtra Assam Plains Eastern Rajasthan North-Eastern Rajasthan Western Tripura Tripura Pondicherry Kerala Northern Maharashtra Coastal Karnataka Inlands Eastern Gujarat Plains Northern Gujarat Dry Areas Haryana Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Assam Plains Western Tamil Nadu Inland WP 2003/002 14

15 Tamil Nadu Coastal J&K Outer Hills Gujarat Plains Southern Gujarat Eastern Uttar Pradesh Western West Bengal Central Plains Madhya Pradesh Northern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Rajasthan South Eastern Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Rajasthan Southern Maharashtra Inland Western West Bengal Himalayan Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau West Bengal Eastern Plains Karnataka Inland Southern Andhra Pradesh Coastal India Andhra Pradesh South western Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Tamil Nadu Southern Dadra & nagar Haveli Uttar Pradesh Eastern Karnataka Inland Northern Bihar Central Maharashtra Eastern Maharashtra Inland Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Orissa Northern Orissa Coastal Bihar Northern Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Uttar Pradesh Central Bihar Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Madhya Pradesh South Central Uttar Pradesh Southern Orissa Southern Maharashtra Inland Central Madhya Pradesh South western Table 8: 55 th Round PG0 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG0 Andaman & Nicobar A&N Mizoram Mizoram J&K Outer Hills Manipur Plains WP 2003/002 15

16 Meghalaya Meghalaya Kerala Southern Punjab Northern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Punjab Southern Haryana Eastern Gujarat Saurashtra Chandigarh J&K Mountainous Karnataka Inlands Eastern Kerala Northern Rajasthan Western Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Haryana Western Gujarat Plains Northern Rajasthan North-Eastern Sikkim Sikkim Tripura Tripura Maharashtra Inland Western Manipur Hills West Bengal Central Plains Gujarat Dry Areas Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Gujarat Plains Southern Tamil Nadu Inland Karnataka Inland Southern Rajasthan South Eastern Tamil Nadu Coastal Pondicherry Maharashtra Coastal Dadar&Nagar Haveli Uttar Pradesh Western Andhra Pradesh Coastal Rajasthan Southern Uttar Pradesh Southern Tamil Nadu Southern Madhya Pradesh Northern West Bengal Himalayan Assam Plains Eastern Gujarat Eastern India West Bengal Eastern Plains Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Maharashtra Inland Central Maharashtra Inland Northern Orissa Coastal Karnataka Inland Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Uttar Pradesh Eastern WP 2003/002 16

17 Assam Plains Western West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Bihar Northern Andhra Pradesh South western Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Assam Hills Uttar Pradesh Central Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Bihar Central Madhya Pradesh Central Bihar Southern Maharashtra Eastern Madhya Pradesh South western Orissa Northern Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Madhya Pradesh South Central Orissa Southern Table 9: 55 th Round PG1 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG1 Andaman & Nicobar A&N E-05 Mizoram Mizoram Manipur Plains J&K Outer Hills Meghalaya Meghalaya Chandigarh Punjab Northern Punjab Southern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Kerala Southern Haryana Eastern Gujarat Saurashtra J&K Mountainous Haryana Western Karnataka Inlands Eastern Rajasthan Western Kerala Northern Sikkim Sikkim Rajasthan North Eastern Gujarat Plains Northern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Manipur Hills Tripura Tripura Maharashtra Inland Western Rajasthan South Eastern Uttar Pradesh Himalayan WP 2003/002 17

18 West Bengal Central Plains Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Karnataka Inland Southern Tamil Nadu Inland Tamil Nadu Coastal Gujarat Dry Areas Pondicherry Gujarat Plains Southern Uttar Pradesh Western Madhya Pradesh Northern Andhra Pradesh Coastal DNH Rajasthan Southern Tamil Nadu Southern West Bengal Himalayan Maharashtra Coastal Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Assam Plains Eastern Maharashtra Inland Northern Uttar Pradesh Southern Gujarat Eastern West Bengal Eastern Plains Orissa Coastal India Karnataka Inland Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Uttar Pradesh Eastern Maharashtra Inland Central Assam Hills Bihar Northern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Assam Plains Western Uttar Pradesh Central Bihar Central Maharashtra Eastern West Bengal Western Plains Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Andhra Pradesh South western Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Bihar Southern Madhya Pradesh Central Madhya Pradesh South western Orissa Northern Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Madhya Pradesh South Central Orissa Southern WP 2003/002 18

19 Table 10: 55 th Round PG2 in ascending order NSS Region code Value of PG2 Andaman & Nicobar A&N E-07 Mizoram Mizoram E-05 Manipur Plains J&K Outer Hills Meghalaya Meghalaya Chandigarh Punjab Southern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Punjab Northern Gujarat Saurashtra Kerala Southern J&K Mountainous Haryana Eastern Haryana Western Kerala Northern Sikkim Sikkim Rajasthan Western Gujarat Plains Northern Manipur Hills Rajasthan South Eastern Karnataka Inlands Eastern Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Rajasthan North Eastern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Maharashtra Inland Western Tripura Tripura West Bengal Central Plains Karnataka Inland Southern Tamil Nadu Coastal Tamil Nadu Inland Gujarat Dry Areas Madhya Pradesh Northern West Bengal Himalayan Tamil Nadu Southern Rajasthan Southern Pondicherry Gujarat Plains Southern Uttar Pradesh Western Andhra Pradesh Coastal Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern West Bengal Eastern Plains Assam Plains Eastern Maharashtra Inland Northern Orissa Coastal WP 2003/002 19

20 Gujarat Eastern Maharashtra Coastal Karnataka Inland Northern Assam Hills India Uttar Pradesh Southern Uttar Pradesh Eastern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Bihar Northern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Assam Plains Western Maharashtra Inland Central Maharashtra Eastern Bihar Central Uttar Pradesh Central Bihar Southern Andhra Pradesh Inland southern West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Madhya Pradesh Central Madhya Pradesh South western Orissa Northern Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Andhra Pradesh South western Madhya Pradesh South Central Orissa Southern We now assess how the various regions have performed in respect of poverty between and Thus in table 11 the head count ratio for is subtracted from that for for each region. The first entry in Table 11 indicates that the head count ratio was higher in as compared to in Himalayan West Bengal. In each table the changes are arranged in order of magnitude. Negative changes indicate worsening performance whereas positive changes indicate improved performance. Thus, over the period to the deterioration in the head count ratio was greatest in Himalayan West Bengal. The greatest improvement was in Mizoram. The changes in PG0, PG1 and PG2 for India as a whole are also noted. At the national level there was a mild drop in PG0 and PG1 but a much sharper drop in the PG2 measure of poverty intensity. WP 2003/002 20

21 Table 11: Poverty Changes Between 43 rd 50 th Rounds (PG0) Deteriorating Head Count Ratio West Bengal Himalayan Madhya Pradesh South western Maharashtra Eastern Bihar Southern Orissa Coastal Madhya Pradesh Central Pondicherry Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Haryana Western Maharashtra Inland Northern Uttar Pradesh Central Maharashtra Inland Central Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Uttar Pradesh Southern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Bihar Northern Bihar Central Assam Plains Western Manipur Plains Gujarat Plains Southern Chandigarh J&K Outer Hills Improving Head Count Ratio Manipur Hills India Karnataka Inland Northern Haryana Eastern Gujarat Plains Northern Andaman & Nicobar A&N Andhra Pradesh South western Tripura Tripura Assam Plains Eastern Maharashtra Inland Western Punjab Southern Lakshadweep Tamil Nadu Inland Kerala Southern Rajasthan South Eastern Assam Hills Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Punjab Northern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats West Bengal Western Plains Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Gujarat Saurashtra Uttar Pradesh Eastern Orissa Northern WP 2003/002 21

22 Gujarat Eastern Rajasthan Western Kerala Northern Madhya Pradesh South Central Madhya Pradesh Northern Uttar Pradesh Western Karnataka Inland Southern Orissa Southern Sikkim Sikkim Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern West Bengal Central Plains Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Tamil Nadu Southern Maharashtra Coastal J&K Mountainous Goa Goa Rajasthan North Eastern Dadra & nagar Haveli Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Tamil Nadu Coastal Karnataka Inlands Eastern West Bengal Eastern Plains Meghalaya Meghalaya Andhra Pradesh Coastal Gujarat Dry Areas Rajasthan Southern Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Mizoram Mizoram Table 12: Poverty Changes Between 43 rd 50 th Rounds (PG1) Deteriorating PG1 Madhya Pradesh South western West Bengal Himalayan Maharashtra Inland Central Uttar Pradesh Southern Bihar Southern Orissa Coastal Uttar Pradesh Central Maharashtra Eastern Madhya Pradesh Central Bihar Northern Maharashtra Inland Eastern Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Haryana Western Pondicherry Maharashtra Inland Northern Uttar Pradesh Himalayan Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh J&K Outer Hills WP 2003/002 22

23 Bihar Central Assam Plains Eastern Maharashtra Inland Western Manipur Plains Chandigarh Improving PG1 Andaman & Nicobar A&N India Gujarat Plains Southern Tripura Tripura Lakshadweep Andhra Pradesh South western Gujarat Plains Northern Assam Plains Western Manipur Hills Gujarat Saurashtra Punjab Southern Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Punjab Northern Rajasthan South Eastern Andhra Pradesh Coastal Kerala Southern Haryana Eastern Assam Hills Gujarat Eastern Kerala Northern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Tamil Nadu Inland Goa Goa Sikkim Sikkim Uttar Pradesh Eastern West Bengal Western Plains J&K Mountainous Rajasthan Western Karnataka Inland Northern Madhya Pradesh Northern West Bengal Central Plains Maharashtra Coastal Uttar Pradesh Western Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Karnataka Inlands Eastern Rajasthan North Eastern Orissa Northern Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Dadra & nagar Haveli Karnataka Inland Southern Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Madhya Pradesh South Central Tamil Nadu Coastal West Bengal Eastern Plains Tamil Nadu Southern WP 2003/002 23

24 Gujarat Dry Areas Meghalaya Meghalaya Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Orissa Southern Mizoram Mizoram Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Rajasthan Southern Table 13: Poverty Changes Between 43 rd 50 th Rounds (PG2) Deteriorating PG2 Madhya Pradesh South western Maharashtra Inland Central Uttar Pradesh Southern West Bengal Himalayan Uttar Pradesh Central Orissa Coastal Madhya Pradesh Central Maharashtra Eastern Bihar Southern Bihar Northern Pondicherry Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Maharashtra Inland Western Maharashtra Inland Eastern Uttar Pradesh Himalayan J&K Outer Hills Assam Plains Eastern Gujarat Saurashtra Maharashtra Inland Northern Haryana Western Andhra Pradesh South western Manipur Plains Chandigarh E-05 Improving PG2 Andaman & Nicobar A&N E-05 Lakshadweep Manipur Hills Gujarat Plains Northern Bihar Central Karnataka Coastal and Ghats Tripura Tripura Punjab Northern Assam Plains Western Gujarat Plains Southern Punjab Southern Assam Hills Rajasthan South Eastern Goa Goa Kerala Southern WP 2003/002 24

25 Kerala Northern Arunachal Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Coastal India J&K Mountainous Tamil Nadu Inland Gujarat Eastern Karnataka Inlands Eastern Haryana Eastern Rajasthan Western Uttar Pradesh Eastern Madhya Pradesh Vindhya West Bengal Western Plains Maharashtra Coastal Madhya Pradesh Northern Rajasthan North Eastern Uttar Pradesh Western West Bengal Central Plains Dadra & nagar Haveli Andhra Pradesh Inland Northern Orissa Northern Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh Tamil Nadu Coastal Karnataka Inland Northern Tamil Nadu Coastal Northern Gujarat Dry Areas Karnataka Inland Southern West Bengal Eastern Plains Meghalaya Meghalaya Madhya Pradesh South Central Tamil Nadu Southern Madhya Pradesh Malwa Plateau Orissa Southern Mizoram Mizoram Andhra Pradesh Inland southern Rajasthan Southern At this juncture, it is natural to ask whether the ranks of NSS regions by measures of poverty differ significantly across the years. 4 To address this we calculate Kendall's coefficient of concordance (see Boyle and McCarthy (1997)) to track the mobility of individual NSS regions over time. The motivation for calculating it in the 4 Although poverty figures for the 55 th round are not comparable with the earlier rounds, we proceed with the rank concordance tests since there is little reason to believe that the rankings of different regions would be affected by changes in the method of recall. WP 2003/002 25

26 context of our work is to determine if the regions that were relatively deprived earlier are still deprived or whether there has been any convergence. Kendall's coefficient of concordance, W, is used to determine the association among the rankings obtained by various regions in different years. (For a lucid discussion of this methodology as used in this paper as well as by Boyle and McCarthy (1997) see Seigel (1956)). If all the regions had the same ranks in all three years, then the variance of the sum of the ranks over the years of all the regions would be the maximum. The coefficient of concordance can be thought of as an index of divergence of the actual agreement from the maximum possible (perfect) agreement. The degree of actual agreement in ranks obtained by the regions in various years is reflected by the degree of variance among the J (total number of regions) sums of the ranks. Thus W is calculated as: W = s/{(1/12)(k 2 )J(J 2-1)} where, s = sum of squares of the observed deviations from the mean of R j (the sum of s = [ j R j j R j / N ] 2 the ranks obtained by a particular region in different years), that is, and k = no. of years (the set of rankings.) J = no. of regions. Now, (1/12)k 2 (J 3 -J)= maximum possible sum of squared deviations, i.e. the sum of s which would occur with perfect agreement among k rankings. The value of the rank concordance index ranges from zero to one. The coefficient of concordance is calculated for the three years , and This enables us to study the mobility of ranks at each point in time. The WP 2003/002 26

27 probability associated with the occurrence under H O (rankings are unrelated to each other) of any value as large as an observed W can be determined by finding χ 2 by the formula χ 2 = s/[(1/12)kj(j+1)] = k(j-1)w with degrees of freedom J-1. For PG0, PG1, PG2 the value of the Kendall statistics were 0.86, 0.86 and 0.85 respectively. In each case these are highly significant. This indicates that there is remarkable stability in rankings of regions by poverty. Inequality has persisted over time and the reforms have not made a significant impact on this inequality. Convergence in terms of values cannot be tested for because we need several more data points for this. IV. Conclusions The spatial distribution of poverty in India has emerged as a matter of urgent concern in recent times. Although much of this spatial analysis has concentrated on the poverty experiences of states, there is considerable evidence of wide variations within states particularly, but not exclusively, the larger ones. This paper has presented evidence on the poverty experiences of 75 NSS regions for the quinquennial rounds of , and The results presented here facilitate easy identification of lagging areas on which anti-poverty policy must concentrate. Of particular concern are those areas with PG0, PG1 and PG2 values above the national average of 0.27, 0.054, and respectively for these measures of poverty. Furthermore, regional inequality in the incidence of poverty has persisted over time. The economic reforms program has been unable to make any significant dent on the spatial distribution of expenditure poverty. WP 2003/002 27

28 References Boyle GA, McCarthy TE (1997), A Simple Measure of β Convergence, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59(2): Dubey, A. and S. Gangopadhyay (1998), Where Are the Poor in India, CSO, New Delhi. Jha, R. (2000), Growth, Inequality and Poverty in India: Spatial and Temporal Characteristics, Economic and Political Weekly, 35(11): Seigel, SG (1956), Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, McGraw Hill Book Company, New York. Sundaram, K. and S. Tendulkar (2003), Poverty in India in the 1990s: An Analysis of Changes in 15 Major States, Economic and Political Weekly, 38(14): WP 2003/002 28