Se$ng produc-ve, a1ainable educa-onal goals for North Carolina

Transcription

1 ECONorthwest ECONOMICS FINANCE PLANNING Se$ng produc-ve, a1ainable educa-onal goals for North Carolina June 15, 2018

2 Takeaways Technological change has demanded, and will con-nue to demand, higher skilled labor North Carolina s postsecondary a1ainment gap (across various defini-ons) is percentage points North Carolina s postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) increased by 7 percentage points over the past decade Sta-ng the obvious: postsecondary enrollment at age 19 is a predictor of postsecondary a1ainment at age 26 P12 goals should consider measures of hard and sor skills Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K12, confirming the need for age 0-4 programming and measures

3 Educa-on and the economy

4 Source: Hanushek et al. (2017). Economic Gains from Educa-onal Reform by US States. Journal of Human Capital. Economic benefits of a be1er-educated workforce Annual average GDP per capita growth, Contribu-ons to GDP per capita growth, Years of schooling Test scores Total Other annual factors average GDP per capita growth 0.0 South Dakota North Dakota Connecticut Virginia Colorado Massachusetts New Hampshire Texas Georgia Kansas Nebraska Louisiana Maryland Utah Arkansas Minnesota New Jersey Mississippi Alabama Iowa Oregon North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Rhode Island Oklahoma Washington Maine Wisconsin Florida California New York Montana Pennsylvania Arizona Illinois Idaho Indiana New Mexico Vermont Missouri Kentucky Ohio Nevada West Virginia Hawaii Michigan

5 Risk of job disrup-on Share of occupa-ons at high risk of automa-on Percent Automation Risk Lower 45% - 50% 50% - 55% 55% - 60% Higher 60% - 65% Source: Frey and Osborne (2017) & analysis by Ball State University

6 Growing importance of social skills in the labor force Cumulative Changes in Employment Share by Occupation Task Intensity 1980 to 2012 High Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Predicted Actual Low Social, High Math Low Social, Low Math Source: Deming, D.J. (2017). The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 132 issue 4.

7 Early thoughts on goal se$ng

8 Early thoughts on goal se$ng Start at the end and work back Consider: Age range(s) Creden-al types Growth feasibility Exis-ng gaps by income, race/ethnicity, geography Time to goal

9 State-level goals versus current state-level a1ainment 80% State postsecondary attainment goals and actual attainment, 2016 Actual attainment (for or year olds, depending on goal) 60% 40% SC LA MD HI FL TN MA ME RI WI MT KS MO ID IL WY GA AZ TX IN KY NV AR NH SD NJCO ND UT OH AK NM AL MN VA WA VT IA CT OK Legend: Certificate+ Associate+ Bachelor's+ OR 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% Attainment goal Sources: Goals compiled by the Lumina Founda-on (HCM Strategists, Strategy Labs); ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS data; Georgetown CEW.

10 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

11 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, % 50% 40% Ages 25-34: recent graduates AA+ a1ainment: 43% Ages 35-64: adult workforce AA+ a1ainment: 42% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

12 North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment, by age and race/ethnicity, 2016 White Black Hispanic Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

13 70% Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by NC region and race/ethnicity, % Total White Black Hispanic 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North Central Northeast Northwest Piedmont-Triad Sandhills (South Central) Southeast Southwest Western Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

14 Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+), 2016 Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) North Carolina 43% 42% 42% Top state 58% 52% 53% Difference Lumina Founda-on s Stronger Na-on (cer-ficate+), 2016 All (25-64) North Carolina 47% Lumina na-onal goal 60% Difference -13 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

15 What s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, , ages Change in associate+ attainment from , ages ME WY NE OR CO DC TN IL MO TX CA UT VA OH MN SD NH NC WAMA RI NY KY CT AL NJ WI AR FL PA OK ID SC KS IA IN GA LA AZ MS NM AK WV HI MI NV VT MD DE MT ND Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

16 What s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, , ages Change in associate+ attainment from , ages DC IA NC SD MT MNWV OH IN SC PA NH WI GA NE VA MO KY TN MS AL ND WY MI NJ CO CT KS RI LA ME OR IL NY AR MA WA OK TX ID MD FL UT AZ HI NV DE CA AK NM VT Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

17 What s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, , ages Change in associate+ attainment from , ages DC IA NC SD NE MN OH WY TN MO NH CO VA PA ME WI IN SC WV OR KY IL GA AL RI NJ MT CT NY TX MS MA KS WA UT LA AR MI ND OK ID FL CA AZ MD HI NV DE NM AK VT Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

18 Poten-al a1ainment goals for North Carolina Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) Moderate +11 pp +8 pp +9 pp Stretch +13 pp +10 pp +11 pp Ambi-ous?? +13 pp

19 Other measures that track progress toward the goal

20 Age 19 enrollment versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

21 North Carolina postsecondary enrollment, by age, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

22 NC enrollment, by age, compared with a top-performing state and neighboring states, % 60% 50% MN VA NC GA TN 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS

23 8 th grade NAEP performance versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS and NCES NAEP data

24 K12 indicators: academic achievement, a1endance, gradua-on No disciplinary incidents in grades 6-8 Steady attendance in 9 th grade On-time HS graduation Postsecondary enrollment Postsecondary outcomes No on-time HS graduation Not proficient in elementary reading Not proficient In elementary math Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE and NSC data

25 Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K parent income in highest quartile test scores in standard deviations age parent income in lowest quartile Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors (December 2014) The Economics of Early Childhood Investments. Figure 3, page 13.

26 Analysis to come

27 Example ques-ons answered by modeling What will happen through 2030 if we do nothing? How much would high school gradua-on rates have to improve to reach the postsecondary a1ainment goal by 2030? To what extent can the state increase overall a1ainment while reducing dispari-es across specified popula-ons given an-cipated upper bounds on postsecondary enrollment growth?

28 Modeling ac-vi-es Develop a baseline a1ainment forecast (current condi-ons/policy) Set targets for system performance needed to achieve the goal Evaluate contribu-ons of subpopula-on a1ainment to the goal

29 Example of goal-reaching approach to modeling: Establish the ul-mate goal and iden-fy condi-ons necessary to achieve this goal (condi-ons can be independent of the means used to achieve the goal) Alternative trajectory (certificates+) Baseline (certificates+)