Atlanta Hotel Performance October 2014
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1 Atlanta Hotel Performance October 2014 Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice 1
2 2 Agenda Total US Review Chain Scale Markets Segmentation Atlanta Performance 2014 / 2015 Forecast Things To Think About
3 3 Click on Data Presentations
4 Total US Review 4
5 October 2014 YTD: A Place In The Sun % Change Room Supply* 0.8% Room Demand* 4.5% Occupancy 66% 3.6% A.D.R.* $ % RevPAR* $77 8.4% Room Revenue* 9.3% October 2014 YTD, Total US Results * All Time High for First 10 Months 5
6 6 RevPAR Growth YTD: +8.4% Strongest YTD growth EVER!
7 Quarterly RevPAR % Change: Tremendous Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 * Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q Q
8 2014 Growth Rates Are Healthy. OCC continues to climb. 6.8% 7.5% 5 4.4% 0-5 OCC % Change ADR % Change -6.7% % Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /2014 8
9 Expect More Of The Same: Positive Growth! Months 31 Mo 56 Months 56 Mo Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/ /2014 9
10 Chain Scale Review 10
11 Scales: A Tale of 2 Supply Growth Scenarios Supply % Change Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, October 2014 YTD 11
12 Scales: RevPAR Composition is ADR Driven ADR % Change Occupancy % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, October 2014 YTD 12
13 Scales: Absolute OCC Very High On Upper End Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC %, by Scale, October YTD 2013 &
14 Scales: Absolute ADR Very Strong At The Luxury End Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *ADR $, by Scale, October YTD 2013 &
15 Segmentation 15
16 Transient ADR Growth Helped By Lack Of Room Availability 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Change ADR % Change *Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
17 Group Demand Is Roaring Back. 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% Demand % Change ADR % Change *2013 Easter Comp -2% *Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
18 Markets 18
19 October 2014 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets & Atlanta Market OCC % ADR % Change Nashville, TN San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Denver, CO Seattle, WA Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA Atlanta, GA New York, NY New Orleans, LA Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA Philadelphia, PA-NJ Washington, DC-MD-VA
20 Atlanta Performance 20
21 October 2014 YTD: Everything Is Awesome! % Change Room Supply 0% Room Demand 8.5% Occupancy 70% 8.5% A.D.R. $93 4.7% RevPAR $ % *October 2014 YTD, Atlanta, GA 21
22 Will Strong OCC Growth Translate Into Stronger Rate Growth? OCC % Change ADR % Change *Atlanta, GA, ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /
23 $ 90 OCC Has Fully Recovered. ADR At Prior Peak $91 % ADR $ (LHS) 74 OCC % (RHS) *Atlanta, GA, ADR $ & OCC %, 12 MMA 1/2002 9/
24 Expect More Of The Same: Positive RevPAR Growth *Atlanta, GA, RevPAR % Change, 1/ /
25 Transient ADR Growth Rapidly Accelerates 10% 8% Demand % Change ADR % Change 6% 4% 2% 0% *Atlanta, GA, Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
26 Group ADR Growth Still Lacking (Despite Demand Growth) 10% 8% 6% Demand % Change ADR % Change 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% *Atlanta, GA, Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
27 October 2014 YTD ADR % Change in Atlanta Submarkets Market OCC % ADR % Change Atlanta Downtown-Midtown Atlanta Downtown Atlanta Midtown Atlanta Northeast, GA Atlanta Northwest, GA Atlanta Alpharetta/North, GA Atlanta Perimeter Center/Roswell, GA Atlanta East Atlanta Airport, GA Atlanta South, GA Atlanta Galleria/Marietta, GA Atlanta Buckhead Atlanta West Atlanta Chamblee/Norcross, GA
28 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 16 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Las Vegas, NV 0 0% Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA 104 0% Tampa-St Petersburg, FL 211 0% St Louis, MO-IL 182 0% Oahu Island, HI 144 0% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 384 1% San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 453 1% Atlanta, GA 883 1% Orlando, FL 1,200 1% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 1,431 1% Detroit, MI 677 2% Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI 671 2% Phoenix, AZ 1,160 2% Dallas, TX 1,875 2% New Orleans, LA 922 2% Chicago, IL 2,923 3% Boston, MA 1,379 3% Nashville, TN 1,107 3% Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 1,707 3% San Diego, CA 1,880 3% Denver, CO 1,350 3% Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,440 3% Miami-Hialeah, FL 2,653 5% Seattle, WA 2,302 6% Houston, TX 4,428 6% New York, NY 12,962 11% *US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, October
29 2014 / 2015 Forecast 29
30 U.S. Forecast summary (% Change) 2015 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Updated 11/10/14 9/5/14 11/10/14 30
31 2015 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets, November 2014 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically) 0% to 5% 5% to 10% New York Anaheim Norfolk Atlanta Philadelphia Boston Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis Nashville New Orleans Oahu Orlando Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Tampa Washington Atlanta: +5.3% 31
32 What To Watch 32
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39 Click on Data Presentations 39
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