GRADUATION NUMBERS. the Putting Data to Work for Student Success

Transcription

1 GRADUATION by NUMBERS the Putting Data to Work for Student Success

2 New Mexico State Graduation Brief 2010 A special supplement to Education Week s Diplomas Count 2010 Graduation by the Numbers: Putting Data to Work for Student Success Revised Edition, August 2010 Copyright 2010 by Editorial Projects in Education Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication shall be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of the copyright holder. Readers may make up to five print copies of this publication at no cost for personal noncommercial use, provided that each copy includes a full citation of the source. Visit for information about additional print photocopies. Published by: Editorial Projects in Education Inc Arlington Road, Suite 100 Bethesda, MD Phone: (301)

3 About Diplomas Count The Editorial Projects in Education Research Center is engaged in a multi-year project to study high school graduation and related issues pertaining to late-secondary schooling and the transition to postsecondary education and employment. As part of this work, Editorial Projects in Education publishes a special edition of Education Week devoted to critical issues facing efforts to improve the nation s high schools. The 2010 installment of Diplomas Count investigates how data and analysis are being used to boost graduation rates and improve student learning across diverse communities and school environments. The advent of modern data-systems technology and the ascendance of strong federal accountability requirements under No Child Left Behind have given school systems increasing access to rich student data as well as the incentive to use that information to drive school reform. With 1.3 million high school students failing to earn a diploma, data-driven strategies have become an essential tool for combating the nation s dropout crisis. The fifth edition of the Diplomas Count report explores how the innovative use of data is driving change in school systems across the country. By profiling efforts under way in four leading school districts, Education Week s journalists delve into early-warning systems that reduce dropout rates by identifying students at risk of failure; consider ways that insights from deep data analysis can result in tailored interventions; and examine how an infusion of federal stimulus dollars can strengthen national and local cultures of innovation built on data. Another centerpiece of Editorial Projects in Education s Graduation Project is the EPE Research Center s comprehensive analysis of public high school graduation rates, using its Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) method. Diplomas Count 2010 provides updated graduation-rate findings for the class of 2007, the most recent year for which data are available. Results are reported for the United States as a whole, the states, and the nation s 50 largest school systems. In a special investigation, the center also identifies several dozen big-city school systems that are exceeding expectations when it comes to high school graduation. In addition to the print edition of the report, online-only features of Diplomas Count include state-specific policy reports and stateby-state indicators accessible through the Education Counts database ( EdWeek Maps, a Web-based geographical tool, also allows users to create interactive maps and download a special report for any school district in the country, which includes comparisons to state and national statistics (online at maps.edweek.org). Editorial Projects in Education Research Center June 2010 About Editorial Projects in Education Editorial Projects in Education (EPE) is a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization based in Bethesda, Md. Its primary mission is to help raise the level of awareness and understanding among professionals and the public of important issues in American education. EPE covers local, state, national, and international news and issues from preschool through the 12th grade. Editorial Projects in Education publishes Education Week, America s newspaper of record for precollegiate education, Digital Directions, the Teacher Professional Development Sourcebook, and the Top School Jobs employment resource. It also produces periodic special reports on issues ranging from technology to textbooks, as well as books of special interest to educators. The EPE Research Center conducts annual policy surveys, collects data, and performs analyses that appear in the Quality Counts, Technology Counts, and Diplomas Count annual reports. The center also produces independent research reports, contributes original data and analysis to special coverage in Education Week, and maintains the Education Counts and EdWeek Maps online data resources. 1

4 STATE PROFILE Graduation Profile for the Class of 2007 Graduation Rate By Student Group All Students By Gender National New Mexico Average (%) (%) Male Female By Race and Ethnicity American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Hispanic Black (not Hispanic) White (not Hispanic) By Gender and Race and Ethnicity Male Female American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Hispanic Black (not Hispanic) White (not Hispanic) American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Hispanic Black (not Hispanic) White (not Hispanic) Value not calculated because necessary data field(s) not reported in the U.S. Department of Education s Common Core of Data and not provided by state education agency. Value not reported because of insufficient data for reliable estimate. 2

5 Graduation in the United States Slightly fewer than 69 percent of all public school students in the nation graduated from high school with a regular diploma in the class of A gap of more than 40 percentage points separates the best-performing and worst-performing states. The national leaders Iowa, New Jersey, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin each graduate at least 80 percent of their students. By contrast, the graduation rate falls below 60 percent in the District of Columbia, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Results reported in Diplomas Count 2010 show that, from 2006 to 2007, the nationwide graduation rate dropped by four-tenths of a percentage point, the second consecutive year of declines following a decade of mostly solid improvements. National Average New Jersey Vermont Wisconsin North Dakota Iowa Michigan Connecticut Pennsylvania Maine Massachusetts Minnesota Utah New Hampshire South Dakota Missouri Montana Kansas Ohio Illinois Nebraska Oregon Maryland Idaho Colorado Wyoming Indiana Oklahoma Kentucky West Virginia Rhode Island New York Virginia Arkansas Arizona Washington Tennessee Alaska Texas Hawaii Delaware California Mississippi Alabama Florida District of Columbia North Carolina Georgia Louisiana South Carolina New Mexico Nevada Graduation-rate percentage (class of 2007) 3

6 Mapping Graduation This map illustrates graduation rates for the high school class of 2007 for every school district in the United States. High school completion displays a distinct geographical patterning, with low-performing school systems highly clustered in the Southeast, Deep South, along the U.S.-Mexico border, and into the Southwest. Graduation rates also fall well below the national average of 68.8 percent in many large urban centers throughout the country. A special analysis conducted by the EPE Research Center for Diplomas Count 2010 reveals a highly concentrated graduation crisis, with 25 individual school districts accounting for one in every five dropouts nationwide. Graduation Rate, Class of 2007 No info. < 50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% % Dropout Epicenters Just 25 districts, listed below with projected numbers of nongraduates, collectively produce one-fifth of all dropouts in the nation. New York City Los Angeles Clark County, Nev. Chicago Miami-Dade County, Fla. Philadelphia Houston Broward County, Fla. Detroit Dallas Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C. Hillsborough County, Fla. Hawaii (statewide district) Orange County, Fla. Palm Beach County, Fla. Prince George s County, Md. Gwinnett County, Ga. Dekalb County, Ga. San Bernardino City, Calif. Baltimore Duval County, Fla. San Diego Milwaukee Albuquerque, N.M. Pinellas County, Fla. 43,643 42,174 17,479 16,731 13,261 9,324 9,266 9,093 8,754 8,054 6,386 5,773 5,731 5,656 5,507 5,426 5,115 5,073 5,051 5,047 5,002 4,836 4,680 4,637 4,280 New Mexico State Highlights

7 A Long-Term View Of Graduation From 1997 to 2007, the national graduation rate increased by 3.1 percentage points, less than one-third of a point per year on average. Graduation rates increased, at least marginally, in a solid majority of states. However, rates fell noticeably in 11 states. Year-by-year trends New Mexico U.S. Average % Year Change National Average Tennessee New York New Hampshire Arizona Florida Hawaii District of Columbia Mississippi Ohio Vermont Texas Michigan Delaware Alabama Louisiana Oregon Missouri Wisconsin Rhode Island Colorado Illinois Indiana Massachusetts Pennsylvania Oklahoma Maine Georgia New Jersey Connecticut Kentucky South Carolina Kansas Iowa North Dakota Arkansas Idaho Minnesota North Carolina Maryland Alaska New Mexico Montana Wyoming Utah Virginia Washington West Virginia South Dakota California Nebraska Nevada Percentage-point change in graduation rate, 1997 to

8 How Does the EPE Research Center Calculate Graduation Rates? The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) The Editorial Projects in Education Research Center uses the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) method to calculate graduation rates. The CPI represents the high school experience as a process rather than a single event, capturing the four key steps a student must take in order to graduate: three grade-to-grade promotions (9 to 10, 10 to 11, and 11 to 12) and ultimately earning a diploma (grade 12 to graduation). Each of these individual components corresponds to a grade-promotion ratio. The equation below illustrates the CPI formula for calculating graduation rates. The class of , the most recent year of data available, is used as an example. CPI = 10th graders, fall th graders, fall th graders, fall 2007 Diploma recipients, spring 2007 X X X 9th graders, fall th graders, fall th graders, fall th graders, fall 2006 Multiplying the four grade-specific promotion ratios together produces the graduation rate, the percent of public school 9th graders who will complete high school on time with a regular diploma. The CPI counts only students receiving standard high school diplomas as graduates, following the definition of a graduate established by the No Child Left Behind Act. We can use a simplified example to further demonstrate how the center calculates the CPI. Let us suppose that a particular school district currently has 100 students enrolled in each grade from 9 through 12. We will also assume that 5 percent of students currently in grades 9, 10, and 11 will drop out of school this year and that 5 percent of seniors will fail to earn a diploma at the end of the year. So, for example, we would count 100 9th graders at our starting point but only 95 10th graders the following fall. CPI = X X X =.815 Carrying out the calculation (shown above), we arrive at a graduation rate of 81.5 percent for this district. Given conditions in this hypothetical district (an effective 5 percent annual attrition rate for students at each grade level), only about 82 out of every 100 9th graders would be expected to finish high school with a diploma. The CPI can be calculated for public school districts that have students enrolled in the secondary grades (9 through 12). State and national statistics are generated by aggregating the district-level data upward. Notes on the Methodology The EPE Research Center calculates graduation rates using data from the Common Core of Data (CCD), an annual census of public schools and school districts in the United States conducted by the U.S. Department of Education. Detailed methodological descriptions of the CCD can be found in technical documentation published by the National Center for Education Statistics (available online at nces.ed.gov/ccd). The District of Columbia, Kentucky, and Oregon did not report diploma counts for student subgroups to the CCD. The EPE Research Center was able to obtain additional graduation data directly from the state education agencies of Kentucky and Oregon. The center s goal is to provide a direct measure of the graduation rate for each of the roughly 11,000 school districts in the nation that enroll high school students. It was possible to do this for districts serving the vast majority (97 percent) of all public school students nationwide. But in a small number of cases for example, if a particular piece of information needed to calculate the CPI indicator was missing the center could not directly compute the graduation rate. To avoid the unintentional disclosure of information about individual students, the EPE Research Center does not report results for very small demographic subgroups, those with fewer than five students in a given category. Additional procedures are employed to ensure that results are only reported in situations where sufficient data are available for a reliable calculation. 6

9 U.S. Public High Schools Losing More Than 7,200 Students Per Day Nationally, 1.3 million members of the public high school class of 2010 will fail to graduate with a diploma. That amounts to a loss of 7,200 students from the U.S. graduation pipeline every school day or one student every 25 seconds. Projection of Graduates and Nongraduates Class of 2010: 1.3 Million Students Will Fail to Graduate Diplomas Count uses the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) method to measure high school graduation rates as the percent of 9th graders who will earn a diploma four years later. The center can project the expected numbers of graduates and nongraduates for the class of 2010 by multiplying the CPI value for by the number of 9th grade students enrolled that year. 2.9 Million Graduates in 2010 = Approximately 42,000 students 4.2 Million 9th Graders in Million Nongraduates in th graders Projected outcomes Graduates Nongraduates Total students lost each school day Alabama 64,943 40,615 24, Alaska 11,233 7,324 3, Arizona 77,621 52,947 24, Arkansas 38,787 26,861 11, California 534, , ,446 1,108 Colorado 64,559 47,284 17, Connecticut 44,975 34,962 10, Delaware 11,004 7,151 3, District of Columbia 5,127 3,053 2, Florida 238, ,094 90, Georgia 145,806 84,289 61, Hawaii 16,419 10,688 5, Idaho 21,843 16,054 5, Illinois 179, ,493 45, Indiana 85,486 61,921 23, Iowa 39,988 32,069 7, Kansas 38,382 28,833 9, Kentucky 57,252 41,086 16, Louisiana 57,171 32,794 24, Maine 15,988 12,407 3, Maryland 78,874 58,108 20, Massachusetts 62,442 48,282 14, Michigan 145, ,339 32, Minnesota 66,738 51,527 15, Mississippi 41,948 26,205 15, Missouri 80,759 60,782 19, Montana 12,792 9,616 3, Nebraska 24,411 18,129 6, Nevada 41,055 17,147 23, New Hampshire 18,227 13,881 4, New Jersey 107,828 89,807 18, New Mexico 29,606 16,254 13, New York 247, ,901 72, North Carolina 127,683 73,835 53, North Dakota 8,262 6,685 1,577 9 Ohio 154, ,354 39, Oklahoma 51,048 36,654 14, Oregon 45,441 33,670 11, Pennsylvania 153, ,854 34, Rhode Island 12,130 8,625 3, South Carolina 66,578 36,576 30, South Dakota 10,371 7,815 2, Tennessee 82,343 54,173 28, Texas 387, , , Utah 37,806 29,162 8, Vermont 7,535 6,203 1,332 7 Virginia 107,577 75,215 32, Washington 90,199 61,236 28, West Virginia 24,331 17,420 6, Wisconsin 74,984 60,743 14, Wyoming 7,164 5,198 1, U.S. 4,155,418 2,857,791 1,297,628 7,209 7

10 The Policy Context High School Graduation and the No Child Left Behind Act The federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB), enacted in 2002, holds states and the schools under their jurisdictions accountable for student performance. The NCLB law defines the high school graduation rate as the percentage of students, measured from the beginning of high school, who graduate from high school with a regular diploma (not including an alternative degree that is not fully aligned with the State's academic standards, such as a certificate or a GED) in the standard number of years. Federal regulations have allowed states substantial flexibility over the specifics of graduation accountability. However, in the fall of 2008, the U.S. Department of Education issued finalized changes to the Title I regulations governing the methods states can use to calculate graduation rates under the No Child Left Behind Act as well as the ways in which those rates factor into the law s accountability decisions. Prompting those changes, in part, were widespread concerns over both the lack of uniformity in calculation methods across the states and the accuracy of the state-reported statistics. State Policy Overview Accountability Calculating Graduation Rates * Formula used by the state to calculate graduation rates for the federal No Child Left Behind Act (class of 2010) Graduation Rate Performance Goals for Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) New Mexico National Overview 29 states use a leaver rate Target for % 77% in average state Final target for % 82% in average state Minimum annual improvement required if not meeting performance target None 27 states allow any amount of improvement to make AYP *A Key to NCLB Graduation-Rate Formulas : Percent of students from an entering 9th grade cohort who graduate with a standard diploma within four years. Method can account for transfers and students retained in grade. Student data may be tracked on a statewide or local basis. (20 states) : Percent of students leaving high school with a standard high school diploma, expressed as a proportion of all those documented leaving with a diploma or other completion credential or as a dropout. This method is sometimes referred to as a departureclassification index. (29 states) Persistence rate: Percent of students who remain in school from grade 9 through grade 12. Rate is calculated using information on (1) the percent of students not dropping out at specific grade levels; or (2) the percent of students estimated to be promoted from grade to grade. This method does not measure high school completion. (1 state) Composite rate: Proportion of students estimated to remain in high school until grade 12 and receive a diploma. The rate for a given year is calculated by multiplying (1) the rate of persistence between grades 9 and 12; and (2) the percent of completers who receive a diploma rather than another credential. (1 state) 8

11 Changes to Graduation Accountability Coming In the fall of 2008, the U.S. Department of Education finalized new changes to the Title I regulations governing the methods states can use to calculate graduation rates under the No Child Left Behind Act as well as the ways in which those rates factor into the law s accountability decisions. Those changes, scheduled to fully take effect by the school year, were prompted in part by concerns about the lack of uniformity and accuracy of state-reported statistics. In all but two instances, the states officially reported rates for the class of 2007 are higher than those computed by the EPE Research Center using the Cumulative Promotion Index. Those discrepancies stem primarily from the states formulas. A review of state accountability plans shows that most states use a leaver-rate calculation, a method that tends to produce inflated results because it relies heavily on undercounted dropout data. State-reported Percentage-point difference State calculation method graduation rate State-reported rate minus CPI rate for NCLB class of 2007 (class of 2007) class of 2010 New Mexico * Nevada Mississippi Alabama Rhode Island * California Arkansas Persistence rate South Carolina Delaware District of Columbia Tennessee Idaho Connecticut Kansas Georgia Hawaii Nebraska Minnesota West Virginia South Dakota Texas Ohio Pennsylvania Kentucky North Carolina Maryland Illinois Utah Missouri Iowa * New Hampshire Composite rate New Jersey Virginia Montana Wisconsin Florida Oregon Wyoming North Dakota Arizona Oklahoma Washington Maine * New York Indiana Vermont Massachusetts Colorado Alaska Michigan Louisiana -- NOTE: State-reported graduation rates for the class of 2007 were submitted to the U.S. Department of Education by the states in their Consolidated State Performance Reports under the provisions of the No Child Left Behind Act. *State used a different method to calculate graduation rates for the class of 2007 than it will use for the class of

12 Graduation Requirements for the Class of 2010 Graduation Policies This table describes state policies related to high school graduation, including the types of credentials available and requirements for receiving a standard diploma. High School Completion Credentials New Mexico Nation Number of states nationwide Standard diploma options offered by state standard 48 states offer a single standard diploma Advanced recognition offered for exceeding standard requirements No 25 Alternative credentials offered for not meeting all standard requirements Yes 30 Course Credits Required To Earn a Standard Diploma Number of credits required by average state Mathematics English/language arts Science History/social studies Other credits Total Credits Required: Exit Exam Required to Earn a Diploma Number of states nationwide Exit exam required Students must pass a statewide assessment or exam to earn a standard high school diploma (class of 2010) Subjects tested (English, Mathematics, Science, History) 10th grade standards Exam based on standards for 10th grade or higher Yes 25 EMSH 11 states test in EMSH No 22 State finances remediation for students failing exit exams Yes 16 Appeals process or alternative route offered to students to earn a standard diploma without passing required exit exam Yes 22 Indicates no statewide policy in specified area. Requirements may be set at the local level. 10

13 Readiness Policies ( ) College Readiness Defining Readiness College & Work This table describes state policies related to college and work readiness. New Mexico Nation Number of states nationwide State has defined college readiness Yes 23 How college readiness is defined Approaches to defining readiness include: courses, skills, standards, and tests Work Readiness courses, standards, tests State has defined work readiness Yes 30 How work readiness is defined Approaches to defining readiness include: courses, skills, standards, and tests Distinct Definitions courses, standards, tests K-12 college-readiness and work-readiness definitions are different Definitions of college and work readiness are distinct No 5 Indicates not applicable A National Perspective The EPE Research Center began tracking states' progress in defining college readiness in As of that year, 11 states had described the skills and knowledge students need in order to be prepared for postsecondary education. Three years later, a total of 23 states had done so, with 11 additional states indicating that work on a definition is in progress. While this trend suggests that college readiness is receiving increased attention from policymakers, the majority of states have yet to complete the process of identifying the key benchmarks college-ready students should meet. 11

14 NOTES AND SOURCES Diplomas Count 2010 The Editorial Projects in Education Research Center is engaged in a multi-year project to study high school graduation and related issues pertaining to late-secondary schooling and the transition to postsecondary education and employment. The fifth annual report from this project, Diplomas Count 2010: Graduation by the Numbers Putting Data to Work for Student Success explores how the innovative use of data is driving change in school systems across the country. By profiling efforts under way in four leading school districts, Education Week s journalists delve into early-warning systems that reduce dropout rates by identifying students at risk of failure; consider ways that insights from deep data analysis can result in tailored interventions; and examine how an infusion of federal stimulus dollars can strengthen national and local cultures of innovation built on data. Diplomas Count 2010 also provides updated graduation-rate findings for the class of 2007, the most recent year available. Results are reported for the United States as a whole, the states, and the nation s 50 largest school systems. In a special investigation, the center also identifies several dozen big-city school systems that are exceeding expectations when it comes to high school graduation. Visit Diplomas Count at State Policy Indicators The policy indicators examined in this report include information collected by the EPE Research Center, as well as data obtained from other organizations. Definitions and sources for specific indicators are described below. Graduation Rate Accountability Policies EPE Research Center analysis of state accountability workbooks approved by the U.S. Department of Education (as of April, 2010) and supplemental state documentation. Formula used to calculate graduation rates for NCLB: Graduation-rate formula described in state accountability workbooks for use in NCLB accountability. Graduation-rate target for Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP), : Graduation rate that schools and school districts are expected to achieve to make AYP for the school year. Final graduation-rate target for Adequate Yearly Progress, : Graduation rate that schools and school districts are expected to achieve to make AYP for the school year. Minimum annual improvement required if not meeting target: Minimum amount of annual improvement that schools and school districts that do not reach graduation-rate targets are expected to achieve to make AYP. Graduation Requirements High school completion credentials: Indicators provide information on staterecognized completion credentials and other forms of recognition. EPE Research Center annual state policy survey, Credits to earn a standard diploma: Course requirements are expressed in Carnegie units unless otherwise specified. One Carnegie unit is equivalent to one year of coursework. Credits reflect the minimum or default course requirements (overall and by subject) mandated by the state for a standard high school diploma. Education Commission of the States, Standard High School Graduation Requirements (50-state), State Exit Exams Information on state exit exams required for the class of 2010 was obtained from the EPE Research Center annual state policy survey, Exit exam required: State requires students to pass exit exam or one or more end-of-course exams to graduate. Subjects tested: Academic subject areas covered on state exit exam. Exam based on standards for 10th grade or higher: State has exit exam(s) aligned to state 10th grade standards or higher in at least one academic subject. This includes exams that cover standards from the 9th to 11th grades, or end-of-course exams for courses that are typically taken in the 10th grade or above. Financing for remediation: State provides at least partial financial support for remediation of students who fail exit exams. Appeals process or alternative route: State allows students to appeal after failing an exit exam or has an alternative route that students can take to earn a standard diploma. Defining Readiness College- and work-readiness definitions: State has formal expectations for what students will need to know and be able to do in order to be admitted to the state s twoyear and/or four-year institutions and enroll in credit-bearing courses or to be prepared for the workplace. State approaches have been classified into the following categories: courses, skills, standards, and tests. Some states definitions may include elements that do not fall into the categories established for this analysis. EPE Research Center annual state policy survey, Distinct definitions of readiness: K-12 education system has different definitions of college readiness and work readiness. EPE Research Center annual state policy survey,

15 EDITORIAL PROJECTS IN EDUCATION RESEARCH CENTER ABOUT Vice President for Research and Development Christopher B. Swanson Director Amy M. Hightower Senior Research Associate Sterling C. Lloyd The EPE Research Center is the research arm of Editorial Projects in Education, which houses a full-time staff of researchers, analysts, and librarians that conducts annual policy surveys, collects data, and performs analyses that appear in the Quality Counts, Technology Counts, and Diplomas Count annual reports. The center also produces independent research reports, contributes original data and analysis to special coverage in Education Week and edweek.org, contributes to the monthly Research Connections e-newsletter, hosts live Web chats on research topics, and maintains the Education Counts and EdWeek Maps online data resources. Research Analyst Hajime Mitani Research Associates Holly Kosiewicz Kacy Sellers Rebecca Wittenstein Research Interns Catherine Dowd-Reilly Daniel Tsin EPE Library Director Kathryn Dorko Library Intern Jessica Cain Editorial Projects in Education (EPE) is a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization based in Bethesda, Md. Its primary mission is to help raise the level of awareness and understanding among professionals and the public of important issues in American education. EPE covers local, state, national, and international news and issues from preschool through the 12th grade. Editorial Projects in Education Inc. publishes Education Week, America s newspaper of record for precollegiate education, edweek.org, Digital Directions, the Teacher Professional Development Sourcebook, and the TopSchoolJobs.org employment resource. It also produces the annual Quality Counts, Technology Counts, and Diplomas Count reports, as well as books of special interest to educators. EPE Knowledge Services Director Rachael Delgado Education Week Press Editorial Director Mary-Ellen Phelps Deily